- Week 1 starting QB markets are live on prediction markets for every NFL team with an open camp battle
- Cleveland named Deshaun Watson its Week 1 starter, while Atlanta is now a near-even race
- Track every starting quarterback market and the latest odds movement in the widget below
Training camp is where starting jobs get won and lost, and prediction markets now let you bet on how those battles shake out. Kalshi has posted Week 1 starting quarterback markets for every NFL team with a real competition brewing.
The widget below tracks the current odds, the contenders in each QB room, and how the prices have moved as camp news trickles out.
NFL Starting QB Odds
The board above covers every team with an open starting QB market, with odds from Kalshi and stats from Sportradar. Click “Compare Stats” on any matchup to see last season’s numbers side by side and check who’s actually producing before reading into the odds.
Cleveland is settled after the Browns named Deshaun Watson their starter. Atlanta is now the only close race, as Tua leads Penix 50% to 46%. Cousins holds at 94% in Las Vegas, while Murray is back to 97% in Minnesota.
New to these markets? Kalshi is a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook, so there’s no house setting a line. You buy YES or NO shares on a quarterback, and the price equals what traders think his chances are.
A QB at 68 cents is priced like a 68% favorite to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. Because each quarterback trades as his own contract, the two numbers in a battle don’t have to add up to 100%.
Starting trading today with a Kalshi promo code, or sign up at other top-rated prediction markets to lock in your NFL starting QB prediction.
NFL QB Battles to Watch
Atlanta Falcons
- Kalshi odds: Tua Tagovailoa 50% | Michael Penix Jr. 46%
Tua Tagovailoa still leads, though his price fell from 83% to 50% this week. He started the preseason opener and went 3-of-5 for 22 yards over nine snaps.
Michael Penix Jr. jumped from 27% to 46% after getting cleared for full-team work. He joined 11-on-11 drills Monday and split first-team reps with Tua.
Kevin Stefanski has yet to name a Week 1 starter. Penix cleared his final health hurdle, which has turned Atlanta into a near-even market.
Cleveland Browns
- Kalshi odds: Deshaun Watson 97% | Shedeur Sanders 2%
This race is over. Cleveland named Deshaun Watson its starting quarterback on Aug. 24, and his market climbed from 79% to 97%.
Watson won the job after splitting first-team work with Shedeur Sanders throughout camp. He went 11-of-15 for 126 yards in the preseason opener.
Sanders fell from 18% to 2% after the announcement. He made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, though Cleveland chose Watson’s experience for Week 1.
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Las Vegas Raiders
- Kalshi odds: Kirk Cousins 94% | Fernando Mendoza 4%
Las Vegas has kept Kirk Cousins atop its preseason depth chart, with Fernando Mendoza as the backup. Cousins moved from 93% to 94% this week.
Klint Kubiak called the job Cousins’ to lose after the preseason opener. Cousins played one drive and went 5-of-6 for 50 yards with a touchdown.
Mendoza answered with 10-of-16 for 97 yards and a touchdown in relief. His price fell from 13% to 4%, leaving little doubt about Week 1.
Minnesota Vikings
- Kalshi odds: Kyler Murray 97% | J.J. McCarthy 1%
This one is settled. Kevin O’Connell named Kyler Murray the Week 1 starter, and McCarthy is the backup. Murray moved from 93% to 97% this week.
Minnesota signed Murray to a one-year deal in March, and the price never really wavered. He is a former No. 1 overall pick who leads McCarthy in just about every passing and fantasy metric.
Murray opened the preseason with one series, going 2-of-3 for 10 yards. McCarthy is still in year three with a knee behind him. He’s a name to keep on the board if Murray misses time.
How I Approach QB Battle Markets
Camp battles can be sharp spots to find value, because the public overreacts to a single practice report or a coach’s vague quote about open competition. I start with the depth chart reality, who’s actually taking first-team reps, rather than what a coach says at a podium.
From there, health usually matters most, followed by the staff’s track record with young quarterbacks. A veteran on a short deal almost always holds the early edge, but a healthy, high-pedigree rookie can flip a market once the pads come on.
Atlanta is now the one I’m watching. Penix moved after his clearance and split first-team reps with Tua. With prices at 50% and 46%, practice work could shape the final call.
NFL Starting QB Odds FAQ
How do Kalshi starting QB markets work?
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market, so you trade YES or NO shares on a quarterback rather than betting against a sportsbook. The price equals the market’s read on his odds to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. You can also sell before the market settles, much like a stock.
Which QB battles are live right now?
Atlanta (Tua vs. Penix) is the only close race still open. Cleveland named Watson its starter, while Cousins and Murray hold clear leads. The board updates as new QB battles open and prices move.
Why do the two quarterbacks add up to more than 100%?
Each quarterback trades as his own independent contract, so the prices don’t have to total 100%. Atlanta can trade at 50% for Tua and 46% for Penix. Treat each number as a standalone read on that player.
When will Week 1 starters be decided?
Most teams settle their depth chart late in camp or through the preseason, so expect the biggest moves once the pads come on. These markets resolve on the official depth chart a team publishes for the week, plus injury reports and team announcements.
Where can I see the latest starting QB odds?
The widget near the top of this page tracks every live market and updates as prices move. It also breaks down each QB room and recent passing stats, so you can compare the contenders before making a call.
If you’re looking for other NFL futures, check out any of the pages below: