- Week 1 starting QB markets are live on prediction markets for every NFL team with an open camp battle
- Minnesota named Kyler Murray the Week 1 starter, leaving Cleveland and Atlanta as the last open races
- Track every starting quarterback market and the latest odds movement in the widget below
Training camp is where starting jobs get won and lost, and prediction markets now let you bet on how those battles shake out. Kalshi has posted Week 1 starting quarterback markets for every NFL team with a real competition brewing.
The widget below tracks the current odds, the contenders in each QB room, and how the prices have moved as camp news trickles out.
NFL Starting QB Odds
The board above covers every team with an open starting QB market, with odds from Kalshi and stats from Sportradar. Click “Compare Stats” on any matchup to see last season’s numbers side by side and check who’s actually producing before reading into the odds.
The board is thinning out. Minnesota is done, and Murray now trades at 98% after the team named him. Cousins sits at 91% in Las Vegas, with Watson at 79% and Tua at 78%. Cleveland is the last race with two quarterbacks getting a real look.
New to these markets? Kalshi is a regulated exchange, not a sportsbook, so there’s no house setting a line. You buy YES or NO shares on a quarterback, and the price equals what traders think his chances are.
A QB at 68 cents is priced like a 68% favorite to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. Because each quarterback trades as his own contract, the two numbers in a battle don’t have to add up to 100%.
Starting trading today with a Kalshi promo code, or sign up at other top-rated prediction markets to lock in your NFL starting QB prediction.
NFL QB Battles to Watch
Atlanta Falcons
- Kalshi odds: Tua Tagovailoa 78% | Michael Penix Jr. 13%
Tua Tagovailoa has pulled away as the favorite, and the market lines up with what’s happening on the ground. New coach Kevin Stefanski values accuracy above all at the position, and that plays into Tua’s strengths. Ian Rapoport has since projected Tua as the Week 1 starter.
Michael Penix Jr. is the reason this isn’t fully over. He’s younger at 26 and a former top-10 pick the team still likes. But his price has slid to 13% while he waits to get back on the field.
The catch is his health. Penix says full medical clearance could still be four weeks away as he rehabs a November ACL tear. That timeline pushes him toward the end of August. Stefanski won’t name a starter, though he doesn’t have to while only one quarterback is practicing.
Cleveland Browns
- Kalshi odds: Deshaun Watson 79% | Shedeur Sanders 18%
This is the last race on the board with two quarterbacks getting a fair look. Watson has pushed out to 79%, while Sanders has dropped to 18% after sitting near 35% two weeks ago. That is the sharpest move of the summer.
Todd Monken laid out the plan. Sanders starts the preseason opener at Chicago, and Watson starts against Buffalo on Aug. 22. Monken signaled that whoever starts the third game, Aug. 27 against New England, is likely his Week 1 quarterback.
Sanders made the Pro Bowl as a rookie despite shaky numbers. Drawing the first preseason start reads as the weaker slot here, and traders sold him on the news. Watch who takes the field on Aug. 27.
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Las Vegas Raiders
- Kalshi odds: Kirk Cousins 91% | Fernando Mendoza 11%
Las Vegas made it official on paper. The first preseason depth chart lists Kirk Cousins as the starter and Fernando Mendoza as the backup. Cousins has held at 91% since Klint Kubiak named him to open camp.
Kubiak still wants all three quarterbacks taking first-team reps. He has said he’d be comfortable with any of them starting if their name gets called. Mendoza has crept back up to 11% on that.
Cousins isn’t planning to hand anything over. “I’m gonna try to hold him off as long as I can,” he said of Mendoza. The 91% lines up with a bridge year and a slow runway for the No. 1 pick.
Minnesota Vikings
- Kalshi odds: Kyler Murray 98% | J.J. McCarthy 1%
This one is settled. Kevin O’Connell named Kyler Murray the Week 1 starter, and McCarthy is the backup. The market moved to 98% on the announcement.
Minnesota signed Murray to a one-year deal in March, and the price never really wavered. He is a former No. 1 overall pick who leads McCarthy in just about every passing and fantasy metric.
O’Connell promised a true competition, and it lasted about two weeks into camp. McCarthy is still in year three with a knee behind him. He’s a name to keep on the board if Murray misses time.
How I Approach QB Battle Markets
Camp battles can be sharp spots to find value, because the public overreacts to a single practice report or a coach’s vague quote about open competition. I start with the depth chart reality, who’s actually taking first-team reps, rather than what a coach says at a podium.
From there, health usually matters most, followed by the staff’s track record with young quarterbacks. A veteran on a short deal almost always holds the early edge, but a healthy, high-pedigree rookie can flip a market once the pads come on.
Cleveland is still the one I’m watching. Watson pulled clear this month, but preseason snaps say more than anything Monken tells a podium. A big night from Sanders could move it again.
NFL Starting QB Odds FAQ
How do Kalshi starting QB markets work?
Kalshi is a regulated prediction market, so you trade YES or NO shares on a quarterback rather than betting against a sportsbook. The price equals the market’s read on his odds to start Week 1, and each share pays a dollar if he wins the job. You can also sell before the market settles, much like a stock.
Which QB battles are live right now?
Cleveland (Watson vs. Sanders) and Atlanta (Tua vs. Penix) are the two races still open. Las Vegas has Cousins atop the depth chart, and Minnesota has named Kyler Murray its starter. The board updates as new QB battles open up and as prices move.
Why do the two quarterbacks add up to more than 100%?
Each quarterback trades as his own independent contract, so the prices don’t have to total 100%. It’s normal to see a battle priced at 79% and 18% at once. Treat each number as a standalone read on that player.
When will Week 1 starters be decided?
Most teams settle their depth chart late in camp or through the preseason, so expect the biggest moves once the pads come on. These markets resolve on the official depth chart a team publishes for the week, plus injury reports and team announcements.
Where can I see the latest starting QB odds?
The widget near the top of this page tracks every live market and updates as prices move. It also breaks down each QB room and recent passing stats, so you can compare the contenders before making a call.
If you’re looking for other NFL futures, check out any of the pages below: