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Boxing Best Bets, Picks & Odds Johnson vs Thorslund at for MVPW 05
By Jaren Kawada in Boxing
Published:
- Undisputed women’s bantamweight champion Cherneka “Sugar Neekz” Johnson headlines MVPW 05 against Dina Thorslund
- Desley Robinson defends the WBO and IBF women’s middleweight titles against Tamm Thibeault in the co-main event
- Check out the best analysis, predictions and bets for the full MVPW 05: Johnson vs Thorslund fight card below
Two of the most exciting female boxers simultaneously return to the ring with the undisputed women’s bantamweight titles on the line when Cherneka Johnson (19-2) defends her belts against former champion Dina Thorslund (24-0) in the main event of MVPW 05. The 10-fight card streams on ESPN+ as part of the promotion’s recently-signed deal with the Worldwide Leader in Sports. The preliminary card starts at 6:30 pm ET with the main card at 10:00 pm ET.
Johnson, colloquially known as “Sugar Neekz”, prepares for her first Most Valuable Promotions main event in her third appearance with Jake Paul’s company. The 31-year-old fan-favorite rides a four-fight win streak into the high-profile clash, most recently coming off a unanimous decision victory over Amanda Galle.
Thorslund is only competing for the second time since signing with MVP in mid-2025. The former unified women’s bantamweight champion relinquished the titles due to her pregnancy within months of signing with Paul’s promotion and has since moved up to claim the interim WBC featherweight title in her return fight against Almudena Alvarez in January.
MVPW 05: Johnson vs Thorslund Fight Card Odds
The main event is unsurprisingly the closest-lined fight on the MVPW 05 main card. The champion remains favored at -150, but Thorslund still commands a lot of respect in the market, coming back at +110 to reclaim her former titles.
While the main event is closing as a toss-up, oddsmakers are more convinced that Tamm Thibeault will dethrone Desley Robinson in the co-main event. Thibeault is a sizeable -600 favorite to become the new WBO and IBF women’s middleweight champion, with Robinson coming back at +350 to retain her titles.
Rising star Krystal Rosado is the biggest favorite on the card, billed at -1000 to defeat Alondra Hernandez in the main card opener.
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Cherneka Johnson vs Dina Thorslund Prediction
Cherneka Johnson and Dina Thorslund are the two most prominent women’s bantamweight champions of the last decade and share many similarities in their approaches. Both want to walk forward and get their hands dirty in the middle of the ring with little emphasis on defense, setting the table for what should be a highly entertaining main event.
Johnson and Thorslund are both capable of throwing power, but volume is key to either champion’s game. Their styles result in them each absorbing almost as many blows as they deal out per fight, both believing that their conditioning and cardio will outlast the other. Nothing should change much for either woman in this undisputed title fight.
With so many physical similarities between them, most intangible factors favor Johnson. Thorslund has fought just once in the last 22 months and has not made 118 pounds since October 2024. That inactivity, which was caused by a miscarried pregnancy, could be vital entering a fight against Johnson, who tests the will and physical condition of her opponents more than anything.
Neither has a Plan B if their chaotic go-to game plan fails, but nothing on paper suggests either will get too far ahead on the scorecards. Johnson’s recent activity and slightly better defensive mechanics will be the difference in what could be a very tight decision at the end of the night.
- Boxing Picks: Cherneka Johnson Moneyline (-150 on bet365)
Desley Robinson vs Tamm Thibeault Best Bet
After four middleweight championship victories, Desley Robinson’s title reign faces its biggest test against Tamm Thibeault at MVPW 05. Thibeault presents a problem for Robinson almost everywhere on paper, coming in nine years younger with a significant two-inch height and nine-inch reach advantage out of her southpaw stance.
Robinson has built the foundations to her title reign by simply being bigger and more powerful than many of her opponents. Unlike many of her peers, the 38-year-old has never been a high-volume fighter, rather picking her shots and always remaining on balance to land her big power shots.
Robinson’s power could get through against Thibeault, but the Canadian has everything in her toolbag to give the champion nightmares in the ring.
Like Robinson, Thibeault has taken a liking to her power and is more than willing to stand and trade with anybody. That approach comes at the expense of her defense, which is not championship-caliber by any means. But it sometimes can feel intentional, as if Thibeault wants to bait her opponents in, believing that her timely counters will be more punishing.
While playing that game with Robinson could be fatal, Thibeault is much more explosive and athletic than the aging champion. That will show up in their footwork, where the challenger is much more adept at cutting angles and setting traps, while Robinson tends to follow her opponents around the ring.
As uimpressive as Thibeault’s defense is, Robinson’s is worse. The Australian has always relied on her chin, which has yet to fail her, but Thibeault’s explosive power could be its biggest test to date. Taking those shots at this point in her career could very well lead to the first stoppage loss of Robinson’s career.
- Boxing Picks: Tamm Thibeault by KO/TKO (+400 on bet365)
Shurretta Metcalf vs Amanda Galle Prediction
Shurretta Metcalf and Amanda Galle might look like they belong in different weight classes during their face-off, with the former’s four-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage sticking out like a sore thumb. However, this fight is entirely Galle’s to lose.
Metcalf is almost always the taller fighter and intends to fight with that to her advantage, sticking and moving behind her long jab and 1-2. She can win fights when her opponents let her fight at her pace and range, but Metcalf is like a fish out of water whenever anyone brings the fight to her.
Any time Metcalf has faced an opponent who would aggressively close the distance — namely her most recent loss to Cherneka Johnson — she visibly panics and reacts by swinging wildly in defense instead of maintaining any sort of guard or circling out of danger. Metcalf’s lack of speed and timing matches up horribly against fighters who want to make it dirty on the inside.
Enter Galle, who has made her entire living out of out-boxing women in the pocket.
Galle is also coming off a loss to Johnson, which exposed her inability to keep up with the champion’s output. That will not be an issue against Metcalf. If Galle can consistently get to her spots against the lanky ‘Chiccn,’ she thrives at gliding in and out of range against slower, plodding fighters. Galle’s exquisite body work will also be a factor against the long torso of Metcalf.
Without a consistent jab or footwork, Metcalf will hate where Galle takes the fight once she closes the distance. The Canadian is too fast, disciplined and fundamental for a wild and inconsistent fighter like Metcalf to handle.
- Boxing Picks: Amanda Galle Moneyline (-163 on bet365)
Krystal Rosado vs Alondra Hernandez Best Bet
Ten fights into her professional career, Krystal Rosado has already developed a reputation as one of the best young female knockout artists. The speed and power that have gotten her to this point will be put to a big test against fellow bantamweight prospect Alondra Hernandez.
Rosado, 23, and Hernandez, 21, are both very young in their careers with a near-full gas tank remaining. But from what each has shown thus far, Rosado is the much more skilled boxer, even if she often gives into her tendency to get way too wild and put defense on the backburner.
Hernandez, however, is the more physical fighter who brawls with 100 percent power on almost every punch. Her low knockout rate is not indicative of the damage she can do by using her size to wear on opponents and slugging it out without so much as a hint of letting up.
But while Hernandez thrives in the dogfight, her subpar footwork and low hand speed can be a hurdle to getting the fight where she wants. That will be an issue against a faster fighter like Rosado. The two will be operating at entirely different speeds and Rosado’s output will not relent for a second to let Hernandez reset.
Hernandez will have success when she tracks down Rosado, but those moments will be too few and far in between. With prop lines unfortunately limited, use Rosado as a strong parlay leg.
- Boxing Picks: Krystal Rosado Moneyline (-1000 on bet365)
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