Buse vs Bonzi Picks, Predictions & Odds

• Benjamin Bonzi is a -138 favorite against Ignacio Buse in semifinal play at the ATP Winston-Salem
• This matchup will feature a tight baseline battle focused on return metrics
• See my Buse vs Bonzi picks, predictions and updated odds below

A chance to play for the ‘chip is on the line Friday, when Ignacio Buse clashes with Benjamin Bonzi in the semifinals of the ATP Winston Salem Men’s Singles.

The hard courts are playing fast, setting the stage for an intriguing favorite against underdog dynamic late in the tournament.

Buse holds a superior ATP ranking, but Bonzi has caught fire this week to reach this stage and is set as the betting favorite at -138 odds. Bettors must decide if season-long consistency offers a sharper edge than a short-term, late-tournament surge.

Buse vs Bonzi goes at 4pm ET from Stadium Court at Wake Forest University Tennis Complex in Winston Salem, North Carolina.

You can catch the action on the Tennis Channel in the United States, while Canadians can tune in on TSN.

Buse vs Bonzi Picks and Predictions

• Pick: Buse Moneyline (+118 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

ML Prediction

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Kalshi

Buse to Win

46%

Predict

Bonzi has the better immediate run, winning four straight matches in Winston-Salem, while Buse has won his first three. However, the broader 52-week profile from Tennis Ratio points to Buse as the more complete player: his 1.081 Dominance Ratio, 1.199 Breakpoints Prevail rate, 1.109 Dominance Efficiency, and 1.554 Match Efficiency all exceed Bonzi’s marks of 1.015, 1.070, 1.054, and 1.418, respectively.

The return gap is especially important on a fast hard court. Buse wins 34.3% of return points against first serves and 50.0% against second serves, compared with Bonzi’s 27.8% and 48.9%, according to Tennis Ratio.

He also wins 27.9% of return games and converts 44.0% of break points; Bonzi sits at 19.7% and 38.8%. Those numbers give Buse a credible path to pressure Bonzi’s service games even if Bonzi’s 81.6% service-games-won rate and 71.9% first-serve points won rate keep him competitive.

Tennis Abstract’s August 24 Elo snapshot also rates Buse higher overall, 1,767.1 to 1,708.2, although Bonzi holds the modest hard-court Elo edge, 1,671.0 to 1,618.6. That surface-specific caution explains why I am not treating Buse as a dominant favorite, but the overall Elo advantage, stronger return profile, and +120 price still make him my moneyline value side.

Buse’s recent results also show that he can handle quality opposition, including wins over Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Daniel Altmaier in his first two Winston-Salem rounds, while Bonzi’s current four-match streak makes a straight-sets Buse win a less attractive assumption.

The +1.5-game spread therefore offers a practical way to back Buse’s statistical strengths without requiring him to fully erase Bonzi’s tournament-form and hard-court Elo advantages.

Buse vs Bonzi Odds

Odds as of August 28 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

These odds highlight the best available market prices, integrating Kalshi’s trading metrics where they outpace traditional sportsbooks.

The standard market priced Bonzi as a heavy -138 favorite, but Kalshi shares currently offer Bonzi to win at 54¢, generating a far superior implied price of -117. I always prioritize line shopping to maximize payout value, and leveraging those alternative markets is how you maintain long-term profitability.

This is the first meeting between these two on the ATP Tour.