Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul Predictions & Best Odds (Sep 4)

• Tommy Paul is a -175 favorite over Alexander Bublik in Round 3 men’s singles action at the US Open
• Bublik and Paul have met seven times, with Paul holding a 5-2 edge in their head-to-head history
• See my Bublik vs Paul predictions and the latest odds below

The Round of 32 at the US Open Men Singles features a compelling hard-court clash between Alexander Bublik and Tommy Paul.

As betting markets attempt to separate the chalk from the underdog, their seven-match history offers useful context. Paul leads the overall series 5-2, but Bublik claimed a grueling five-set victory over Paul at the 2025 US Open.

You can catch this match at 12:30m ET from Louis Armstrong Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

ESPN is the broadcast channel for all matches in the United States while you can catch the action in Canada on TSN.

Bublik vs Paul Predictions

• Pick: Over 38.5 Total Games (-117 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

O/U Prediction

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Kalshi

Over 38.5

54%

Predict

Their playing styles perfectly counterbalance each other on North American hard courts, resulting in grueling, extended battles where neither man can secure a quick victory. Backing the over bypasses the difficulty of predicting an outright winner in a true toss-up scenario. Kalshi’s current price implies a 54% probability that this match eclipses 38.5 games, equivalent to approximately -117 in U.S. odds.

Their 2025 US Open encounter required the absolute maximum number of sets: a marathon five-set affair that featured three tiebreakers and 55 total games before Bublik finally pulled away. Their 2025 Miami meeting also went three sets and lasted 34 games, but the broader series includes several straight-sets results. The recent meetings nevertheless support the possibility of another extended hard-court battle, especially given both players’ ability to compete in long baseline exchanges.

• Pick: Paul Moneyline (-163 at Polymarket)

While Bublik claimed the victory in their New York meeting last year, Tommy Paul is the more compelling side to back for an outright win. Kalshi’s 62¢ Yes price implies a 62% probability that the American exacts his revenge, equivalent to approximately -163 in U.S. odds. Backing Paul relies heavily on season-long momentum. In extended, high-pressure Grand Slam matches, consistent baseline form often trumps localized tournament history.

The Kalshi moneyline prices imply Bublik at 39% (+156) and Paul at 62% (-163). The market also lists Paul at -3.5 games for +117 and Bublik at -1.5 games for +170. For the first set, Bublik is priced at 45% (+122), while Paul is priced at 59% (-144).

Additional totals markets offer a range of outcomes: over 33.5 games is priced at -245, over 38.5 games at -117, and over 43.5 games at +150. Kalshi also prices over 4.5 sets at +186 and Tommy Paul to win by more than 1.5 sets at -104. These are converted implied prices from Kalshi’s Yes contracts, not traditional sportsbook lines.

The case for Paul is supported by both opponent-adjusted strength and his underlying 52-week numbers. The Tennis Abstract Elo ratings, updated Aug. 31, 2026, place Paul at 1,938 overall and 1,872 on hard courts, ahead of Bublik at 1,894 overall and 1,839 on hard courts.

That hard-court edge is modest, but it points in the same direction as Tennis Ratio’s 52-week key-stat comparison: Paul leads in dominance ratio (1.413 to 1.091), breakpoint-prevail ratio (1.644 to 1.222), match efficiency (1.681 to 1.451), return games won (24.0% to 15.8%), and second-serve return points won (50.8% to 46.4%). Bublik owns the bigger serve profile, including more aces per game and a higher service-games-won rate, which helps explain why the over remains attractive, but Paul’s superior return pressure gives him the more reliable path to victory.

Paul has also shown strong recent hard-court form, beating Zizou Bergs, Roberto Carballes Baena, Reilly Opelka, Hubert Hurkacz and Alexander Zverev during the season, before opening this US Open with wins over Chak Lam Wong and Dino Prizmic. Bublik is likewise 2-0 in New York after defeating JJ Wolf and Adrian Mannarino, so neither player arrives cold.

Still, Paul’s combination of the stronger hard-court Elo, better return metrics and recent wins over quality opposition makes the moneyline pick more defensible than the head-to-head loss suggests.

Bublik vs Paul Odds

Odds as of Sept 4 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

The overall series favors Paul 5-2, although Bublik won the most recent meeting at the 2025 US Open in five sets. The head-to-head record includes both straight-sets victories and extended three- and five-set battles, so the history does not guarantee a marathon.

Still, the recent hard-court meetings provide a reasonable basis for considering the totals market alongside the outright result.