AGA Predicts ‘Flat’ NFL Sports Betting Handle For 2026 Season, First Year With No Growth

• The American Gaming Association is estimating $29.5 billion in NFL sports betting for the 2026 season
• Estimated handle is nearly identical to 2025 season
• Flat year-over-year growth attributed by AGA to “backdoor sports betting” on prediction markets

The American Gaming Association is estimating a flat NFL sports betting handle for 2026 season, the first season predicted to have no growth since the 2018 legalization of sports betting.

The American Gaming Association (AGA) is estimating $29.5 billion in legal, regulated sports betting handle for the 2026 NFL season, compared with last season’s $29.4 billion total. The AGA believes the popularity of prediction markets, and sports event contracts, are to blame for the handle plateau.

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams. Since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018, legalized sports betting has seen tremendous growth,” AGA President and CEO Bill Miller said. “But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called ‘prediction markets,’ the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

AGA Blames Prediction Markets

According to Miller and the AGA’s report, millions of Americans are still choosing legal, state-regulated sportsbooks. But, prediction markets and sports event contracts are also rapidly expanding throughout the entire country.

The prediction markets and their sports event contracts, Miller said, operate outside the regulatory frameworks set up by the 40 jurisdictions that have some form of legalized sports betting, while also ignoring the laws of the 11 states that do not feature a legalized market.

Legal sports betting handle has slowed significantly since 2025, Miller said, which comes as the prediction market operators’ sports events contracts have expanded. The AGA estimated $5.1 billion in sports event contract handle has come from users between the ages of 18 and 20, which is below the legal in 35 of 40 states with legalized sports betting.

Decrease in Tax Revenues

The decrease in handle has likely costs billions in potential state gaming tax revenues since 2025, Miller noted. The AGA estimates Kalshi and Polymarket have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenues.

“These ‘prediction market’ platforms are dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment,” Miller said. “Kalshi and other ‘prediction markets’ say they don’t need to follow state- and tribal- regulated sports bettings laws or pay state gaming taxes. Their defiance means consumers, including teenagers and freshmen, placing bets without the protections, oversight, and accountability that the legal market provides.”