College Football Upset Predictions Week 2 – Top Underdog Picks Today
By Michael Schwartz in College Football
Published:
- Saturday’s Week 2 slate puts several favorites on upset watch.
- A disruptive defense gives one longer-priced underdog a strong case to win outright.
- Read below for my college football upset predictions and moneyline picks.
A plus sign beside a team’s name always gets my attention. However, it takes more to get my money. For my Week 2 college football upset predictions, I’m looking for underdogs that can dictate parts of the game instead of spending four quarters hoping the favorite makes a mistake.
Saturday’s slate offers a few different ways to attack that. I’m weighing offensive balance, the ability to finish drives and defenses that can make a quarterback uncomfortable. A loud home crowd matters, but I’m more interested in what happens once the ball is snapped.
My three underdog picks range from tight matchups to a bigger payout. Here’s where I’m willing to pass on the points and back an outright win.
College Football Upset Picks for Week 2
| Matchup | Pick | Consensus Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State at Texas | Ohio State moneyline | +101 |
| UTSA at Texas State | UTSA moneyline | +104 |
| Arizona at BYU | Arizona moneyline | +245 |
Consensus moneyline odds from Sportradar, September 11, 2026.
CFB Upset Pick #1: Ohio State Moneyline vs Texas
Ohio State produced 56 points and 671 total yards in its opener, with 434 yards through the air and 237 on the ground. That balance gives the Buckeyes multiple ways to move the ball in Austin. I’m backing their offense to keep Texas from controlling the game through long possessions.
The Buckeyes scored on every red-zone trip and committed just one turnover. In a matchup priced near a pick’em, protecting possessions and finishing drives are the advantages I want. Ohio State has the offensive production to trade scores with Texas, and I’m taking the plus-money price on the Buckeyes to win outright.
Ohio State’s defensive record strengthens the case. Since the start of 2025, the Buckeyes have allowed only 27 plays of 20-plus scrimmage yards, the fewest among teams in the FBS. Limiting those explosive gains would force Texas to sustain longer drives and earn its scoring chances.
Pick: Ohio State Moneyline (+101 consensus)
CFB Upset Pick #2: UTSA Moneyline vs Texas State
UTSA opened with 45 points and 527 total yards, split between 275 passing and 252 rushing. Texas State managed seven points and 349 yards. The Roadrunners’ balance is the reason I’m backing this road underdog: they can sustain drives without relying on one part of the offense.
UTSA also finished its opener with no turnovers and two interceptions, while Texas State carried a minus-two turnover differential. The Roadrunners converted 66.7% of their red-zone opportunities compared with the Bobcats’ 33.3%. I expect UTSA’s cleaner execution and scoring production to decide this matchup, making +104 one of my best college football upset bets.
The Roadrunners generated 23 first downs in their opener, another sign that their production came from sustained offense. I expect that ability to move the chains to give UTSA control over the pace. Keeping the Bobcats’ defense on the field should open opportunities for both the running game and downfield throws.
Pick: UTSA Moneyline (+104 consensus)
CFB Upset Pick #3: Arizona Moneyline vs BYU
Arizona’s defense is the reason I’m taking a shot at +245. Since the start of 2025, the Wildcats have allowed an FBS-low 98.1 opponent passing-efficiency rating, with 23 interceptions against nine passing touchdowns allowed. They opened this season by holding Northern Arizona to minus-seven rushing yards in a 35-7 win.
The Wildcats also generated 520 total yards in that game, including 331 through the air. BYU brings a productive rushing attack, but Arizona’s ability to disrupt offenses and create takeaways gives it a strong route to the upset. I’m backing the Wildcats to turn defensive stops into opportunities for Noah Fifita to win in Provo.
Fifita enters this week with 9,445 career passing yards, second in Arizona history. He also has a developing target in Giovanni Richardson, who caught eight passes in the opener. That combination of an experienced quarterback and reliable receiving options gives Arizona the offensive support to capitalize on its defensive strengths.
Pick: Arizona Moneyline (+245 consensus)
