Expert Picks, Predictions & Betting Splits for Saints vs Lions
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Lions are 7-point favorites over the Saints in their Week 1 showdown in Detroit
- I expect a high-scoring clash, fueled by the fast indoor track and the Lions’ elite red zone efficiency
- Keep reading for my expert picks and predictions, plus the latest betting splits for Saints vs Lions
The Week 1 NFL slate continues today as the Saints clash with the Lions. This showdown kicks off at 1:00 PM ET, broadcast live on FOX from Ford Field.
The Lions enter as a heavy home favorite in the NFL odds, relying on the pocket presence of veteran Jared Goff and a high-flying air raid offense. Meanwhile, the underdog Saints will try to control the field position battle, leaning on sophomore Tyler Shough to match the home team’s fireworks.
Below, I’ll break down my expert picks, predictions and betting splits for the Saints vs Lions Week 1 contest.
Odds for Saints vs Lions
Odds as of September 10, 2026, 3:08 PM ET from BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code today to bet on the NFL.
The Lions step onto the turf as a solid 7-point favorite, forcing you to lay heavy juice at -323 on the moneyline for a straight-up victory. The total opened at 50.5 before ticking down slightly to a flat 50, with the Under currently eating a bit of extra vig at -120.
When I strip away the sportsbook’s built-in cut, the normalized vig-free probabilities give the Lions a 73.33% chance of securing the win. The underdog Saints hold a 26.67% implied probability of stealing a road victory.
Expert Picks and Predictions for New Orleans vs Detroit
Spread Pick: Saints +7.5 (-122 at Polymarket)
The Saints were an absolute cash cow for bettors down the stretch in 2025. They finished with a flawless 6-0 record against the spread (ATS) over their final six games. Furthermore, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog.
The Lions have stumbled when asked to cover inflated numbers. They were a dismal 1-4 ATS (20%) as a favorite over their last five outings. The Saints bring enough pass rush to disrupt the pocket timing and keep this contest within a single score. I am backing the road dog to cover at Polymarket, where you can get New Orleans +7.5 if you’re willing to lay -122 juice. Grab the Polymarket bonus code to tail this pick.
Over/Under Pick: Over 50.5 (+108 at Kalshi)
I am also targeting a high-scoring affair inside the dome. The Over cashed in each of the last five Lions home games last season. Additionally, the Over is 6-1 in their last seven contests as a betting favorite.
When the Saints are an underdog of a touchdown or more, the Over has hit in four of their last five games (80%). Given the Lions’ lethal red zone efficiency (62.5%), I expect an offensive shootout that clears the 50.5-point hurdle. Claim the Kalshi promo code to get in on the action.
2025 Stats for NO vs DET
How do the two teams stack up against each other in the trenches? The most glaring mismatch involves the turnover differential. The Saints’ offense coughed up the football 24 times last season. They face an opportunistic Lions defense that racked up 49 sacks and 19 takeaways.
Conversely, the Lions are a trendy Super Bowl 61 odds pick, and averaged a robust 28.1 points per game last year. However, the Saints wield a fierce defensive line that generated 45 sacks and forced 20 total turnovers. If the visitors want to dictate the pace, their defensive schemes must rattle the pocket before the Lions reach the red zone.
Scanning the NFL player props market, Lions quarterback Jared Goff faces a passing yards prop of 261.5 (-114) alongside a 1.5 passing touchdowns line. He can feed running back Jahmyr Gibbs, whose rushing yards total sits at an attractive 84.5 (-115).
On the other side, Saints quarterback Shough must navigate the hostile environment. His passing yards prop is listed at 246.5 (-114). I will be watching Travis Etienne Jr closely. His rushing yards over/under is 56.5 (-115), making him a vital ground and pound asset to keep the Lions’ offense off the field
Betting Splits for Saints vs Lions
Evaluating the NFL public betting splits offers crucial context for my predictions. The spread market reveals a fascinating tug-of-war. The public slightly leans toward the underdog, with 55.55% of tickets taking the Saints. However, a commanding 73.31% of the total financial handle backs the Lions to cover.
The moneyline market is entirely one-sided. A massive 96.17% of the cash and 95.98% of tickets are riding with the Lions to win outright.
For the total, 65.02% of the money and 81.94% of the tickets expect a lower-scoring Under. My prediction for the Over represents a distinct contrarian angle against a betting public that clearly anticipates a defensive grind.
Key New Orleans vs Detroit Betting Trends
- The Saints are 6-0 (100%) against the spread over their last six games.
- The Saints are 5-0 (100%) against the spread as an underdog over their last five matchups.
- The Saints are 4-1 (80%) straight up over their last five games.
- The Lions are 1-4 (20%) against the spread at home over their last five contests.
- The Over has hit in each of the last five Lions home games (100%).
- The Over has cashed in 85.7% of the Lions’ last seven games as a favorite (6-1).
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
