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MLB Home Run Odds, Props & Top Picks for Today’s Slate (Sept 14)
By Daniel Destler in MLB Baseball
Published:
- Target extreme hitter-friendly ballparks like Wrigley Field and Coors Field for today’s top power props.
- Aaron Judge and Fernando Tatis Jr. headline the card with premier matchups against pitch-to-contact, home run-prone starters.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong offers high-leverage value at Wrigley Field thanks to an incredibly favorable weather environment.
With 10 matchups on today’s MLB slate, power bettors have several viable paths to home run value. The best approach is to pair hitter-friendly environments like Wrigley Field, Coors Field, and Great American Ball Park with vulnerable starters who allow loud contact. Below are our favorite MLB home run props targets, led by Aaron Judge in a premium matchup and Fernando Tatis Jr. at Coors Field. For more context, compare today’s venues using our MLB park factors and explore the full MLB props market before betting.
Odds are subject to change and represent the best price available across the listed sportsbooks at the time of publication.
HR Props: Top Home Run Picks Across Today’s MLB Slate
Aaron Judge (+265) — NYY vs. MIN
Judge remains the shortest-priced Yankee home run option for good reason, with books listing him as the top HR candidate in Yankees-Twins at a best available +265. The matchup comes against probable starter Dean Kremer at Target Field, which ranks 10th in MLB run environment this season at 9.16 runs per game while allowing 1.97 home runs per game. That combination of elite individual power, premium market support, and a top-10 scoring venue keeps Judge at the front of the card.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+273) — SD vs. COL
Tatis is priced right behind Hunter Goodman in Padres-Rockies HR odds, but the setup is still one of the best on the slate. San Diego gets probable starter Tomoyuki Sugano at Coors Field, where the park data is doing plenty of heavy lifting: Coors ranks fourth in runs per game at 11.31 and is producing 2.59 home runs per game. With warm Denver conditions listed at 84 degrees and low humidity, Tatis has the right blend of talent, venue, and matchup to justify a top-tier HR ticket.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong (+294) — CHC vs. ATL
Crow-Armstrong is the market’s top home run candidate in Braves-Cubs, with DraftKings offering the best number at +294. The Wrigley Field context is the key research point here: the park ranks seventh in run scoring at 9.83 runs per game and is producing a massive 3.03 home runs per game this season. Add in a listed 15 mph wind and a matchup with probable starter Reynaldo López, and this is exactly the kind of environment where Wrigley can turn a good power spot into a great one.
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Hunter Goodman (+264) — COL vs. SD
Goodman is not just a Coors Field add-on — he is actually the shortest-priced HR option in Padres-Rockies, with a best available +264. That market position matters, especially in a game at the slate’s premier hitting venue. Coors Field ranks fourth in MLB with 11.31 runs per game, 19.63 hits per game, and 2.59 home runs per game, giving Goodman the highest-upside park context of any hitter on this list.
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Pete Alonso (+321) — NYM vs. BAL
Alonso offers the best plus-money value among the favorites in Orioles-Mets, leading that game’s HR market at a best available +321. He draws probable Orioles starter Brandon Young at Citi Field, which has played closer to neutral overall but still sits at 2.26 home runs per game this season. Alonso’s power ceiling, top-of-market status in this matchup, and the longer price compared with the Coors and Judge options make him a strong tournament-style HR prop target. Alonso returns to Citi Field for the first time since leaving the Mets at the end of last year.
Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.
