Early ATS Picks for Week 3 College Football – Best Bets Against the Spread

• Early ATS picks for Week 3 college football include backing Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels and two SEC favorites
• Third-down efficiency drives my early best bets against the spread
• Read below for my early ATS picks for Week 3 college football, including the best bets against the spread

Week 3 brings a road test for North Carolina at Clemson and two very different SEC matchups. Georgia has a huge number to cover at Arkansas, while LSU visits Ole Miss in one of the weekend’s most anticipated games.

My early ATS picks for Week 3 college football focus on which offenses can sustain drives and turn those possessions into points. The spread matters as much as the matchup, particularly when a half-point separates a winning ticket from a push.

Keep reading for the complete list of my early ATS picks for Week 3 college football, including my best bets against the spread.

Early ATS Picks for Week 3 College Football

BetMGM odds checked September 14. Claim the BetMGM promo code before betting on college football this week.

Early Week 3 ATS Best Bet #1: North Carolina +3.5 at Clemson

North Carolina is the clearest value side in the college football odds now that the number has reached 3.5. The Tar Heels are averaging 24 points and 374.5 yards per game, while Clemson is producing only 16 points and 246 yards. The difference is even more significant on third down. North Carolina is converting 40.0% of its attempts, compared with just 11.1% for Clemson.

That matchup gives the Tar Heels a path to stay on schedule and keep this game inside one possession. North Carolina also owns a plus-one turnover differential, while Clemson is at minus-two. Clemson’s red-zone offense has been efficient, so I do not expect an easy game for the visitors, but the Tigers have not shown enough consistency between the 20s to justify laying more than a field goal.

Getting more than a field goal is the key to this Week 3 ATS pick. A three-point Clemson victory would cash North Carolina +3.5, while the same result would only push at +3. I am willing to take the points here, but I would not chase this pick if the spread drops below a field goal.

• Pick: North Carolina +3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

Early Week 3 ATS Best Bet #2: Georgia -24.5 at Arkansas

This is a massive spread, but Georgia is a top National Championship odds contender and has produced the type of early-season offense that can separate from Arkansas quickly. The Bulldogs are averaging 66.5 points and 576.5 yards per game. Arkansas is averaging 20.5 points and 360 yards. Georgia also has a major third-down advantage, converting 61.1% of its attempts compared with 50.0% for the Razorbacks.

The Bulldogs have been especially reliable in scoring situations, converting 92.3% of their red-zone opportunities. Their plus-two turnover differential adds another reason to trust them to create extra possessions. Arkansas can move the chains, and a 50.0% third-down rate means the home team should have opportunities, but the Razorbacks have not shown the offensive output needed to trade scores with this Georgia attack.

The Bulldogs remain my side at -24.5 because their scoring efficiency and turnover edge give them several ways to win by margin. Arkansas needs to turn sustained possessions into touchdowns to keep pace, and its early scoring output falls well short of Georgia’s. I want this number below four touchdowns; the further it climbs, the less room there is for a late Arkansas score. Before making any bet this week, shop for the top price with the best college football betting apps.

• Pick: Georgia -24.5 (-111 at BetMGM)

Early Week 3 ATS Best Bet #3: LSU -3 at Ole Miss

LSU is my favorite side in the weekend’s top-10 matchup. The Tigers are averaging 47 points and 586 yards per game, compared with 41 points and 454 yards for Ole Miss. The most important statistical gap is on third down, where LSU is converting 57.6% and the Rebels are converting 35.0%.

Ole Miss has been perfect in the red zone so far and boasts a Heisman Trophy odds contender in Trinidad Chambliss, so LSU cannot afford careless possessions. Still, LSU’s ability to generate first downs and sustain drives gives the Tigers a strong road profile. LSU has also created 11 sacks, and that pressure could matter against an Ole Miss offense that must stay efficient to protect home field.

I still make LSU the better side at the current field-goal number. The matchup favors the Tigers’ consistency, and their third-down advantage gives me more confidence in their ability to sustain an important late drive. I expect LSU to do enough to win and cover, but I would keep this early ATS bet at -3 rather than giving away the hook at -3.5.

• Pick: LSU -3 (-108 at BetMGM)