Expert Picks and Props to Bet in Packers vs Jets (Sep 20)
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Packers are 3.5-point favorites over the Jets in Week 2 NFL action
- Green Bay has lost six straight games dating back to last season
- See my expert picks and props to bet in the Packers vs Jets showdown on Sep 20, below
The New York Jets (1-0) look to build on their season-opening victory as they host the Green Bay Packers (0-1) in a captivating Week 2 clash today. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 PM EST, broadcast live on FOX from MetLife Stadium.
Green Bay enters as a heavily backed road favorite in the NFL odds, desperate to avoid a dreaded 0-2 start. The Packers feature dynamic quarterback Jordan Love, but their high-flying air raid offense faces a severe test. They must navigate a suffocating Jets defense anchored by elite playmakers like Demario Davis.
Meanwhile, New York embraces the home underdog role, bringing a ground and pound attack led by Breece Hall alongside veteran signal-caller Geno Smith. I’m breaking down this game from every angle, looking for value in the spread, prop and total markets. Keep reading for my expert picks and props to bet in Packers vs Jets on Sep 20, below.
Odds for Green Bay vs New York
Odds as of September 16, 2026, at BetMGM. Claim the BetMGM promo code to get in on the action.
The oddsmakers clearly lean toward the visiting team bouncing back, installing Green Bay as a 3.5-point favorite across most books. Meanwhile, the total opened at 43.5 but has ticked up to 44.5 points.
Looking at the NFL public betting splits, there is overwhelming alignment toward the Under which I completely disagree with (more on that below). That side of the total commands a massive 83.56% of the money alongside 85.47% of the tickets.
Expert Picks and Props to Bet in Packers vs Jets
When I dive into NFL ATS records, laying points with the road team here feels dangerous.
Pick: Jets +4.5 (-127 at Kalshi)
While the broader market is settled around Green Bay -3.5, savvy bettors can grab the Jets at +4.5 (-127) at Kalshi, which secures meaningful insulation beyond a field goal. Grab the Kalshi promo code now to lock in this line.
Structurally, New York’s defensive personnel matches up well against Green Bay’s perimeter-oriented attack, especially in forcing opponents into extended drives and contested red-zone snaps. On the other side, New York’s balanced ground game creates manageable third-down situations to sustain possessions and keep the game within a one-possession margin. Laying more than a field goal with a road favorite in this environment leaves little margin for error, making the +4.5 hook on the home underdog the sharp side of the number.
Pick: Over 44.5 (-104 at Polymarket)
The oddsmakers have set the total at 44.5 points, and my analysis overwhelmingly points toward a high-scoring affair. The Over has hit in each of the last six Green Bay games on the road as a favorite (100%).
At 44.5, this total sits in a prime range for two offenses capable of generating explosive plays and operating efficiently in early-down passing situations. Both passing games prioritize vertical intermediate concepts that stress boundary corners, creating high-efficiency scoring drives and quick-strike capability.
When paired with potential short-field opportunities created by aggressive defensive front sevens, both teams project to generate enough quality possessions to push this matchup over the total. Use the Polymarket bonus code to tail this pick.
Stats for GB vs NYJ
When Green Bay has the football, their offense relies heavily on Love’s pocket presence. The NFL MVP odds contender helps Green Bay churn out a massive 419 total yards and 353 passing yards per game. However, they face a dominant defense giving up a mere 10 points and 127 passing yards per game. Oddsmakers expect this shutdown secondary to limit the aerial attack, setting Love’s passing yards over/under at 254.5 in the NFL player props. Top target Christian Watson has his receiving prop set at just 60.5 yards.
On the other side, New York utilizes a balanced attack anchored by Hall. The home squad averages a robust 152 rushing yards per game. Hall will look to exploit a defensive front yielding 107 rushing yards per contest, with his rushing prop set at 68.5 yards. Through the air, Smith manages a steady 215 passing yards per game (prop set at 208.5). His primary target, Garrett Wilson, carries a receiving yards prop of 61.5.
Betting Trends for Green Bay vs New York
Green Bay
- They are 0-10 (.000) against the spread after a loss over their last 10 games.
- They are 1-6 (.143) against the spread on the road as a favorite over their last 7 games.
- The Over hit in each of their last 6 games on the road as a favorite.
- They have lost their last 6 games outright.
New York
- They are 1-5 (.167) against the spread after a win over their last 6 games.
- The Over hit in each of their last 4 games at home as an underdog.
- The Over hit in 10 of their last 11 games against opponents with a losing record (.909).
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
