Anytime TD Picks & Props to Bet in Raiders vs Chargers on Sep 20

• Looking at the best player prop picks in Week 2’s AFC West battle between the Raiders and Chargers
• Target Kirk Cousins’ passing volume and fade Justin Herbert’s passing yardage
• See my Week 2 Raiders vs Chargers anytime TD picks and props below

It’s an all-AFC West clash between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, with our interest diving into the anytime TD picks and other NFL player prop picks.

Justin Herbert commands the Chargers’ offense, looking to exploit matchups with top targets like receiver Ladd McConkey. On the opposite sideline, Kirk Cousins takes the snaps for Las Vegas, handing the ball off to running back Ashton Jeanty as they look to establish offensive rhythm.

Kickoff in the late afternoon window is scheduled for 4:05pm ET, with CBS carrying the national broadcast.

I have analyzed the available passing and receiving data to help you find the best betting value on these key offensive playmakers.

Best Raiders vs Chargers Player Prop Bets & Predictions

Odds as of September 20. Click here for a bet365 Sportsbook promo code to bet on NFL games this season.

Raiders vs Chargers Player Prop Picks #1: Cousins Pass Attempts

• Kirk Cousins Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (-108 at Kalshi)

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Cousins Pass Attempts Pick

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Kalshi

Cousins Over 29.5 Attempts

52%

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At -108, the market implies just a 51.92% break-even probability for Cousins to hit 30+ pass attempts. That number is drastically mispriced relative to his actual baseline: Cousins has cleared 29.5 attempts in 6 of his last 7 starts (85.7% hit rate), averaging 32.0 attempts per game over that span with a high-volume floor (logging 30+ attempts in every game where his team trailed entering the fourth quarter). This creates an immediate +33.8% edge in realized frequency over the implied probability.

With Las Vegas projected as a road underdog against the Chargers, game script heavily favors elevated dropbacks to stay competitive. The Chargers’ defense surrenders 37:31 in opponent time of possession and yields 277.0 gross passing yards per game, forcing opponents to run an average of 65+ offensive plays per contest. Facing sustained drive volume against a defense vulnerable through the air, Cousins projects for 32–34 dropbacks, making Over 29.5 one of the highest-floor passing volume bets on the board.

LV Raiders vs LA Chargers Player Prop Picks #2: Herbert Pass Yards

• Justin Herbert Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-114 at BetMGM)

Justin Herbert has struggled to reach this yardage mark in his own stadium. Justin Herbert has failed to exceed 224.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games at home (191.0 passing yards/game average). Compounding this yardage issue is a lower passing volume; Justin Herbert has failed to exceed 29.5 passing attempts in 6 of his last 8 games (26.5 passing attempts/game average). With Las Vegas allowing 220 gross pass yards per game and holding opponents to 25:07 of possession time, Herbert’s ceiling appears limited.

Raiders vs Chargers Player Prop Picks #3: Hampton Anytime TD

• Omarion Hampton Anytime TD (-117 at Kalshi)

Here is a quick look at Higbee’s recent performances against this extremely wagerable number:

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Hampton TD Pick

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Kalshi

Hampton 1+ TD

54%

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Sportsbooks have installed Hampton as the heavy favorite to find the end zone first at +380, which carries a high implied probability of 20.83%. In standard NFL betting distributions, a player commanding over a 20% First TD market share typically correlates to an Anytime TD true probability in the 62% to 66% range (around -165 to -195), meaning his 54¢ market price is substantially underpriced relative to bookmaker expectations.

Beyond the raw pricing discrepancy, Hampton’s high-leverage role as the Chargers’ primary goal-line and red-zone workhorse gives him the most secure touchdown floor on the board. Compared to the rest of the slate—where players with identical First TD odds show major pricing inefficiencies (e.g., Keaton Mitchell at 18¢ vs. David Njoku at 23¢)—Hampton provides both the strongest mathematical margin of safety and the highest expected value.