College Football Upset Predictions Week 3 – Top Underdog Picks Today
By Michael Schwartz in College Football
Published:
- Three college football Saturday upset predictions to focus on in Week 3.
- Quarterback play and the ability to finish drives shape this week’s underdog analysis.
- Read below for my college football upset predictions, underdog picks and prices.
Saturday’s college football slate offers several chances to back an underdog without reaching for a huge longshot. Three road teams have shown enough on offense to make their Week 3 matchups worth a closer look.
Early records need context. A comfortable win over an FCS opponent does not establish how a team will fare against stronger competition, while a favorite’s winning score can hide problems finishing drives.
These college football upset predictions weigh those details against the available prices. The table below has all three underdog picks, followed by the matchup analysis behind each selection.
College Football Upset Predictions for Week 3
Sportsbook odds from BetMGM. See the current BetMGM promo code offer. These are separate upset picks, not a parlay.
CFB Upset Pick #1: North Carolina to Win vs Clemson
- Upset pick: North Carolina to win, Yes at 41¢ on Kalshi.
North Carolina enters 2-0 after beating ETSU 35-3in Week 2. The Tar Heels produced 427 total yards, including 161 on the ground, while holding ETSU to 77 rushing yards. Demon June finished three drives with rushing touchdowns.
Clemson’s 22-7 win over Georgia Southern was less convincing offensively. Nolan Hauser kicked five field goals, and the Tigers’ only touchdown followed a muffed punt. Clemson generated enough chances to win but repeatedly settled for three points.
That gives North Carolina a route to an upset if it can force the same short-field decisions. The Tar Heels cannot count on dominating possession as they did against ETSU, but trading touchdowns for Clemson field goals would make the favorite vulnerable.
Clemson’s defense remains the difficult part of this bet. It forced eight three-and-outs last week, so North Carolina needs to stay out of obvious passing situations. I’m backing the underdog’s ability to finish enough drives to make this a close fourth-quarter game.
At Kalshi, a 41¢ Yes share pays $1 if North Carolina wins, leaving 59¢ profit before fees. This is an outright-win pick, not a spread bet. Our Kalshi guide explains how the contracts work.
CFB Upset Pick #2: SMU Moneyline vs Louisville
- Upset pick: SMU moneyline (+100 at BetMGM).
Kevin Jennings is the main reason I’m backing SMU. Through two games, he has completed 40 of 52 passes for 767 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions. He threw for 337 yards and five scores in the first half of the Mustangs’ 56-10 win over UC Davis.
The stronger evidence came against Florida State. Jennings passed for 430 yards and three touchdowns in SMU’s 27-24 victory, showing the offense can move the ball against an ACC opponent as well as an overmatched nonconference team.
Louisville can score, too. The Cardinals followed a 41-38 loss to Ole Miss with a 59-13 win over Villanova, producing 635 yards in the latter game. SMU will need to keep answering rather than rely on a comfortable defensive performance.
At even money, I prefer Jennings and an offense that has already won a close conference game. SMU’s passing production gives it a credible chance to match Louisville possession for possession. The pick is to win outright, so a one-point loss would not cash.
CFB Upset Pick #3: Colorado Moneyline vs Northwestern
- Upset pick: Colorado moneyline (+145 at BetMGM).
Colorado scored 52 points and gained 578 yards against Weber State last week. Julian Lewis threw for 212 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter alone, while Micah Welch added 106 rushing yards over the full game.
The Buffaloes have also run the ball on 55.7% of their plays this season, up from 49.7% in 2025. That balance matters here. They have a better chance of sustaining drives if Northwestern cannot concentrate entirely on stopping Lewis’s passing game.
Northwestern is 1-0 after a bye. Its opener produced 497 yards, with Aidan Chiles passing for 273 of them, so Colorado faces an offense capable of responding. Another reason I like Colorado is that the game is at Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, not Ryan Field.
I’m taking Colorado’s scoring potential at +145. The Buffaloes still need to prove last week’s fast start can carry over against stronger opposition, but the passing and rushing production offer two ways to attack this matchup.
