Best Home Run Picks & HR Props Across Today’s MLB Slate

Published: September 25, 2026 at 9:25 am EDT

Yordan Alvarez home run trot — Jul 10, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) celebrates after he hits a home run against the Texas Rangers during the sixth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Kyle Schwarber capitalizes on a high-leverage power spot against Freddy Peralta in a hitter-friendly Philadelphia environment.
Yordan Alvarez brings formidable volume and exit velocity to a highly favorable matchup in West Sacramento.
Cal Raleigh presents exceptional underdog value against Reid Detmers in a grueling late-night West Coast showdown.

With a loaded 17-game MLB slate today, bettors have no shortage of angles in the home run props market. The key is matching elite power bats with the right pitcher and park environment.

Using the latest MLB park factors, we’ve highlighted the best spots and our top MLB props for today, led by a premier slugger in Philadelphia and a high-upside late-night longshot.

Matchup	Pick	Best Odds
Phillies vs. Rays	Kyle Schwarber	+260
Braves at Marlins	Matt Olson	+314
Cardinals at Brewers	Jake Bauers	+318
Astros at Athletics	Yordan Alvarez	+320
Mariners vs. Angels	Cal Raleigh	+350

Odds are subject to change and represent the best price available across the listed sportsbooks at the time of publication.

Top Home Run Prop Picks

Kyle Schwarber (+260) — Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Schwarber is the clear table-setter for this slate because both the market and park data support the pick. In the Rays-Phillies home run market, Schwarber is listed as the most likely player to homer, with +260 available at DraftKings and a +252 consensus price.

The venue is a major part of the case. Citizens Bank Park ranks ninth in MLB in offensive production this season, averaging 9.38 runs, 17.00 hits, 5.91 extra-base hits, and 2.50 home runs per game across 78 games. He also gets the platoon-friendly home setting against Rays probable starter Freddy Peralta, with first-pitch conditions showing 69-degree weather and a 12 mph wind.

Matt Olson (+314) — Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

Olson checks in as the top home run candidate in the Braves-Marlins market, which is notable given the park context. The available odds board lists Olson at +314 on DraftKings, +315 by consensus, and as high as +330 at WilliamHillNewJersey, making him the shortest-priced slugger in this matchup.

The park is not doing him many favors, which is why the market signal matters. loanDepot park/Marlins Park ranks 24th in run environment, producing 8.45 runs and just 1.78 home runs per game across 78 games. Still, Olson leading the entire game’s HR market ahead of Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Miami’s power bats indicates the books are pricing his individual power above the suppressive venue. He faces Marlins probable starter Eury Perez in 86-degree, humid conditions with 15 mph wind in Miami.

Jake Bauers (+318) — St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Bauers is the biggest market-backed surprise on the board. In Cardinals-Brewers home run props, he is priced as the game’s most likely player to go deep, ahead of Jordan Walker, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich. The data shows +318 at DraftKings, +319 consensus, and a best available +330 at WilliamHillNewJersey.

American Family Field adds a solid offensive baseline. The Milwaukee park ranks 11th in MLB this season with 9.03 runs, 15.97 hits, 5.26 extra-base hits, and 2.10 home runs per game over 77 games. Bauers also benefits from drawing Cardinals probable starter Michael McGreevy rather than having to hit in a bottom-tier power environment, and the market has already elevated him to the top of this matchup’s home run board.

Yordan Alvarez (+320) — Houston Astros at Athletics

Alvarez owns one of the strongest data profiles on the slate because his individual market price lines up with the best regular MLB park environment among these five picks. In Astros-Athletics HR props, Alvarez is the top listed candidate, with +320 available at FanDuel, +301 consensus, and +293 at DraftKings.

Sutter Health Park is the key driver. The West Sacramento venue ranks third in MLB for run environment, averaging 11.42 runs, 19.39 hits, 7.11 extra-base hits, and 3.19 home runs per game across 72 games. That is the highest HR/G mark of any full-time MLB park on this slate. Add in Athletics probable starter Jacob Lopez and 82-degree conditions with a 12 mph southwest wind, and Alvarez has the clearest park-plus-market combination in the table.

Cal Raleigh (+350) — Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels

Raleigh is the late-night value play because the odds board still makes him the top home run candidate in Angels-Mariners despite the difficult run-scoring environment. He is listed at +342 on DraftKings, +347 by consensus, and +350 at both FanDuel and WilliamHillNewJersey.

T-Mobile Park ranks just 32nd in overall runs per game at 7.81, but it has not completely erased power, allowing 2.42 home runs per game across 78 games. That HR rate is higher than several parks ranked above it by overall offense, including American Family Field and Marlins Park. Raleigh also draws Angels probable starter Reid Detmers, and the market prices him ahead of Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Randy Arozarena, and Julio Rodriguez in this game’s HR market. That combination of top-of-market status and plus money makes Raleigh a strong final H3 in the same order as the table.

Daniel Destler

Danny Destler is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A graduate of Marist University, Dan covers a wide range of sports topics, creating engaging and evergreen content for DFS enthusiasts and casual fans.