NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 3: Back the Jaguars at Home

Week 3 of the 2026 NFL season is underway after a Thursday night clash where the Atlanta Falcons secured a decisive 35-14 road victory over the Green Bay Packers, pulling away with 28 points across the final three quarters. I won with Falcons +5.5 against the Packers on Thursday night, so I am looking to keep the momentum going.

We now turn our attention to the Sunday slate, featuring nine games starting at 1:00 PM ET. The schedule highlights pivotal early-season matchups, including an AFC South clash where the Houston Texans visit the Indianapolis Colts, and an inter-conference battle between the Saints and the surprisingly 2-0 Raiders, both of which will be discussed later in my best bets for the week. Week 3 concludes Monday night, when the Chicago Bears host the 2-0 Philadelphia Eagles, who sit first in the NFC East.

Below, you will find spreads and an against-the-spread pick for every remaining game, factoring in early NFL ATS records alongside a detailed breakdown of my four best bets.

NFL Week 3 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Spreads are sourced from BetMGM and are current as of publication. Claim your BetMGM promo now.

Best NFL ATS Picks for Week 3

This week’s top NFL against-the-spread plays highlight four squads primed to cover in their matchups. Some might look gross, but hear me out.

NFL ATS Pick #1: Commanders +7.5 vs Seahawks

To kick off this week’s betting card, I am backing the Washington Commanders to cover against the Seattle Seahawks. I know it is Marcus Mariota, but he has been serviceable when he has gotten starts these last couple of years. We are getting a full touchdown with the home team, and I think they can surprise NFL fans everywhere, making this a close game against the defending champs.

Since 2022, NFL teams that are 0-2 are 19-9 against the spread in Week 3 when facing a team with at least one. That helped me win the Falcons on TNF, and I am going back to it here, no matter how ugly this pick looks. The Seahawks have a strong front seven, and Washington’s offensive line is less than ideal, but Mariota has seen success scrambling and putting up points against these types of defenses. By staying ahead of the chains, the Commanders keep their defense fresh and heavily limit the opposing total snap count. Seattle relies on explosive downfield passing, which becomes increasingly difficult when your offense spends long stretches watching from the sideline.

NFL Week 3 Pick: Commanders +7.5 (-110)

NFL ATS Pick #2: Jaguars -3 vs Patriots

I believe the New England Patriots are in for a tough afternoon against a Jacksonville Jaguars roster that excels in the field position battle. New England’s offensive line has struggled to neutralize aggressive defensive schemes, leaving them vulnerable on crucial passing downs. I trust Jacksonville’s front seven to generate consistent disruption, forcing hurried throws and stalling out long drives before they even reach the red zone. Drake Maye has not looked good through two weeks, and that should continue on Sunday.

New England’s offense has looked lethargic, and the Jaguars, on the other hand, have had limited issues moving the ball. They will be at home, and I do not mind laying a field goal with Jacksonville. I expect Liam Coen, Trevor Lawrence, and the Jaguars to consistently convert critical third-down conversions and execute their game plan.

NFL Week 3 Pick: Jaguars -3 (-102)

NFL ATS Pick #3: Texans -2 vs Colts

In this crucial AFC South divisional clash, the Houston Texans offer tremendous value laying less than a field goal on the road against the Indianapolis Colts. I trust Houston’s defense to set the tone for this game as they do not want to go to 0-3. The Colts are also 0-2, but I do not like what I am seeing from this team on both sides of the ball. Defense travels, and Houston will be just fine on the road.

CJ Stroud has looked decent to start the year, and the Colts defense has given up 74 points and 1,029 total yards through two weeks. Backing a road favorite in a division game is not always easy, but I do not see a world where the Colts win outright. Take the Texans to cover the short spread.

NFL Week 3 Pick: Texans -2 (-108)

NFL ATS Pick #4: Saints -3 vs Raiders

The Las Vegas Raiders are 2-0, so they are riding high, but now they go on the road, and they have the Chiefs on deck next week. This is a classic look-ahead spot for Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the Saints are playing their first home game of the season after an exciting win on the road in Baltimore last week. I am excited to see what Tyler Shough and the Saints offense can do in front of the home crowd.

New Orleans boasts a clear offensive advantage. The Saints are averaging an impressive 383.5 total yards per game, significantly outpacing the Raiders’ 297.5 yards. Furthermore, Las Vegas has struggled to sustain drives, converting just 33.3% of their third downs this season. Conversely, the Saints excel at moving the chains, converting third downs at a stellar 50.0%. With a superior ability to control the tempo and sustain drives, I trust the Saints to confidently cover this short spread at home. The Saints have also been a covering machine since Tyler Shough took over as the starter. Going back to last year, Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough are 9-2 against the spread together.

NFL Week 3 Pick: Saints -3 (-118)