Top 3 Player Props & TD Picks for Patriots vs Jaguars on Sep 27

With the New England Patriots visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars, player prop bettors face a fascinating clash of offensive volume driven by quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Drake Maye. Lawrence commands the pocket with a steady 217 passing yards and two passing touchdowns per game early this season, presenting clear betting value.

Meantime, Maye drives the Patriots with his legs and a 193-yard passing average to keep the chains moving. Kickoff is scheduled for September 27, 2026, at 05:00 PM UTC on CBS from EverBank Stadium. Here are the top player prop picks for this matchup.

Best Player Prop Picks for Patriots vs Jaguars

The value in this matchup lies in well-defined situational splits and target shares. While the Patriots will likely rely on their signal-caller’s mobility to navigate pressure, the Jaguars feature a passing attack that offers highly lucrative opportunities against the secondary.

Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+105, BetMGM)

Trevor Lawrence has established an elite red-zone touchdown floor at EverBank Stadium. The Jaguars’ quarterback has exceeded 1.5 passing touchdowns in 5 consecutive home games, averaging a prolific 3.4 passing touchdowns per contest in Jacksonville. Doug Pederson’s offense leans heavily into the pass in high-leverage scoring territory, calling pass plays on 64.3% of red-zone snaps at home.

While the Patriots’ secondary allows a respectable 193.5 passing yards per game, they rely heavily on single-high man coverage inside the 20-yard line, leaving perimeter defensive backs vulnerable to Lawrence’s quick-release timing throws. Securing +105 plus-money odds (carrying a 48.8% implied probability) on a quarterback who has cleared multiple touchdown passes in five straight home starts presents outstanding positive expected value (+EV), especially with Jacksonville controlling field position and limiting opponents to just 28:43 of possession time.

Drake Maye Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-122 / 55¢, Kalshi)

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Maye Rush Attempts

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Kalshi

Maye Over 5.5 Rush Attempts

55%

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Facing a tight point spread where the Patriots are positioned as 1.5-point road underdogs, Maye’s rushing volume should remain elevated through both designed bootlegs and spontaneous off-script scrambles. Maye has exceeded 5.5 rushing attempts in 3 of his last 4 games as an underdog, producing an active 7.2 rushing attempts per game average in those competitive game scripts.

Jacksonville features a disciplined front seven that allows just 95.5 rushing yards and 15.0 points per contest while generating a disruptive 36.8% quarterback pressure rate. With the Jaguars effectively taking away New England’s primary running backs on early downs and collapsing the pocket on passing downs, Maye will repeatedly be forced to tuck the football and run to keep the chains moving. Locking in this volume prop at 55¢ on Kalshi (-122) provides a remarkably stable mathematical floor.

Parker Washington Anytime Touchdown (+203 / 33¢, Kalshi)

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Anytime TD Pick

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Parker Washington 1+ TD

33%

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With the Jaguars favored at home, their primary slot playmaker is positioned for heavy high-leverage target volume. Parker Washington has exceeded 63.5 receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games as a favorite, boasting a robust 78.4 receiving yards per game average during that stretch. That high-volume target share translates directly to the condensed field, where Washington commands a 28.5% red-zone target share on underneath crossing patterns and quick whip routes against nickel cornerbacks.

Grabbing Washington to find the end zone at 33¢ on Kalshi implies a +203 payout, delivering substantial closing-line value over traditional sportsbook books that price him in the +155 to +170 range. Lawrence consistently looks Washington’s way in goal-to-go situations, making this anytime touchdown prop one of the strongest EV plays on the board.

Weather Forecast for Patriots/Jaguars

Sunday’s NFL weather forecasts call for classic late-September Florida conditions at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, with kickoff temperatures in the mid-80s (°F), high relative humidity near 75%, and a heat index approaching 90°F under partly cloudy skies. Winds are projected to remain light and manageable at just 6 to 9 mph coming off the Atlantic coast, with only an isolated (\< 15%) chance of a brief coastal shower.

Because sustained winds will remain well beneath the 15 mph threshold that affects ball trajectory, passing mechanics and kicking ranges will operate with zero environmental friction. However, the oppressive heat and humidity could serve as a subtle scoring catalyst in the second half, as defensive fronts frequently suffer fatigue in heavy Florida weather, allowing offensive units to sustain drives and capitalize on late-game red-zone opportunities.