NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Kansas (Sunday, Sept. 27)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- A major sportsbook disagreement creates a plus-money opportunity near the top-10 cutoff.
- Two independent models agree on four matchups across the Kansas field.
- Read below for NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 predictions, odds and start time at Kansas.
For the second consecutive weekend, NASCAR attempted to hold practice and qualifying. For the second consecutive weekend, the weather responded by handing everyone a starting lineup generated by spreadsheet.
Joey Logano received the pole, with Kyle Larson second and Christopher Bell third.
This is becoming a routine. We wake up ready to analyze long-run speed, spend several hours looking at radar and eventually learn that nobody will be driving a race car until the points begin to count.
Fortunately, Kansas gives us plenty of useful history. The Cup Series raced here earlier this season, and our two independent models use up to 17 races from the selected comparable-track sample.
The expanded betting boards also provided several new opportunities. Our final additions of the weekend include one plus-money finishing-position wager and four matchups where both models favor the same driver.
Some are comfortable. One involves Todd Gilliland and Austin Hill. A balanced card should include the opportunity for a little personal growth.
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at Kansas Speedway. New to the format? Compare the top prediction market apps, or browse other apps like Kalshi before the green flag.
NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions
William Byron Top-10 Finish (+145, BetRivers)
Byron will start eighth, and our projections surround the top-10 cutoff.
My model projects Byron to finish 9.11. Steve’s model lands at 10.11. We could not have placed the line more directly between the two projections if we had been allowed to carry it onto the track ourselves.
The price comparison makes the wager attractive.
theScore Bet lists Byron at -120 to finish inside the top 10. bet365 has moved to -125. BetRivers is offering +145 on the same outcome, apparently after receiving a different answer key.
We will take the larger number and avoid asking questions that might cause someone to correct it.
Byron’s raw comparable-track results support a finish near the cutoff. Across 17 races, he produced a 10.62 average running position, averaged 17.35 fastest laps and led 43.82 laps per race. He completed nearly 75% of his laps inside the top 15.
There is also enough ceiling to consider a small outright position at +2200 on theScore Bet. That price is substantially better than +1800 at Caesars and BetRivers.
Neither model identifies Byron as one of the most likely winners. The outright belongs in the optional-sprinkle portion of the menu. The top-10 wager is the meal.
Kyle Larson over Tyler Reddick (-140 at DraftKings)
Larson owns a meaningful advantage in both projections.
My model places Larson at 3.97 and Reddick at 7.68, creating a difference of 3.71 positions. Steve’s model projects Larson at 4.15 and Reddick at 8.05, producing a nearly identical gap of 3.90 positions.
Larson starts second. Reddick rolls off 15th.
Reddick’s comparable-track results are excellent, so we are not questioning his ability on intermediate tracks. He owns an 8.22 average running position across the raw sample and completed nearly 89% of his laps inside the top 15.
The problem is the other guy.
Larson ranks first in my power ratings, carries the second-best projected finish and begins the race on the front row. Reddick gets to start seven rows deeper and spend the opening stage navigating traffic while Larson attempts to leave Kansas before everyone else.
Both models expect Larson to finish nearly four positions ahead. DraftKings is asking us to lay -140, which is reasonable for the combination of projection and starting-position advantages.
Christopher Bell over Joey Logano (-150 at DraftKings)
This matchup produces the largest shared projection gap among our new selections.
My model projects Bell to finish 6.52 and Logano to finish 12.00. Steve’s model places Bell at 5.46 and Logano at 13.85.
The differences are 5.48 and 8.39 positions.
Logano starts from the pole, but he received that position from NASCAR’s metric. Bell starts third, so the early track-position disadvantage amounts to one row and a firm handshake.
The raw comparable-track results widen the separation. Bell averaged 16.94 fastest laps and 14.41 laps led per race across 17 events. Logano averaged only 2.35 fastest laps and 3.06 laps led.
Logano won at Bristol last weekend, where Team Penske’s short-track strength was on full display. The organization’s intermediate-track performance has been considerably less inspiring.
The pole should help Logano early but the remaining 260-something laps may be less cooperative.
Both models expect Bell to erase the small starting deficit and create distance before the finish.
Brad Keselowski over Ross Chastain (-114, BetRivers)
Both models favor Keselowski, although one arrived at the meeting considerably more excited than the other.
My model projects Keselowski to finish 15.99 and Chastain to finish 23.04, producing a gap of more than seven positions. Steve’s model places Keselowski at 12.21 and Chastain at 15.59.
Keselowski starts 16th, only three positions behind Chastain. That difference is small enough to disappear during the first pit cycle or one particularly enthusiastic restart.
The raw comparable-track numbers are mixed. Chastain holds a slightly better average running position, while Keselowski produced more than twice as many fastest laps and more than five times as many laps led per race.
We do not need the models to agree on the exact size of the advantage. They agree on the driver, and BetRivers is offering -114.
Todd Gilliland over Austin Hill (-110, Fanatics)
Every betting card eventually reaches a matchup that tests our commitment to the process.
Todd Gilliland versus Austin Hill has entered the chat.
My model projects Gilliland to finish 30.45 and Hill to finish 32.44. Steve’s model provides the stronger opinion, placing Gilliland at 22.19 and Hill at 28.59.
Both models favor Gilliland. Steve creates a gap of 6.40 positions, which is an impressive amount of conviction for a matchup unlikely to receive a dedicated camera.
Gilliland starts 20th, while Hill begins 32nd. He also brings the more established Cup Series record and a much larger comparable-track sample.
Gilliland’s raw data includes 17 relevant races. Hill has only four, making his results more sensitive to one good afternoon, one bad afternoon or someone forgetting to tighten a wheel.
Neither driver is expected to challenge for the victory. That is perfectly acceptable. Fanatics will grade the wager without requiring us to explain why we watched them race for 26th.
We only need Gilliland to finish ahead of Hill. Both models expect him to do it, and the price is nearly even.
Hollywood Casino 400 Start Time
The Hollywood Casino 400 begins Sunday at 3:00 p.m. ET on USA Network and HBO Max.
Weighing your options? Compare the best best online sportsbook choices before the green flag at Kansas.
Follow SpeedwaySteve2 on JuiceReel for every play from every race. All selections sync to the profile as they are placed throughout the weekend.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
