College Football Prediction Market Picks for Week 11: Saturday Best Bets (Nov. 14)
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- Three Saturday matchups stand out on the Week 11 prediction market board
- All three picks are home favorites against the spread
- See below for my college football prediction market picks for Week 11, including my Saturday best bets
My Week 11 college football prediction market picks start with three home favorites, but each one has to clear a different test. Georgia faces a Missouri team with six wins, Miami gets a Duke side that has been rolling, and Indiana meets USC in a matchup with real Big Ten stakes.
These Saturday best bets are all point spreads. The table shows what it cost to buy each pick on Kalshi as of 11:24 a.m. ET Friday, Nov. 13. Prices can change before kickoff.
College Football Prediction Market Picks for Week 11
A Georgia win by two touchdowns is enough at -13.5. At -14.5, that same win would lose, so check both the spread and the price when comparing the latest college football odds. At 59¢, a winning contract returns $1 for a 41¢ profit before fees. If the favorite falls short of the listed margin, the contract pays nothing.
College Football Saturday Best Bets for Week 11
1. Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction: Georgia -13.5
- Pick: Georgia -13.5 (59¢ on Kalshi)
Georgia (8-1) is the National Championship odds favorite with the stronger résumé against Missouri (6-3), and its last outing showed how much control it can take on the ground. The Bulldogs ran 48 times for 295 yards in a 42-7 win over Ole Miss, with Nate Frazier going for 107 yards on 16 carries.
The passing game finished drives too. Talyn Taylor caught four passes for 140 yards and three touchdowns, and Georgia has 22 rushing and 23 passing touchdowns this season. That balance makes it hard for a defense to sell out against one look.
The Georgia spread comes down to how soon Missouri has to abandon the run. The Bulldogs have outscored opponents 108-14 in the first quarter this season. An early lead lets Georgia use Frazier to chew up clock with Missouri chasing two scores. If the Tigers keep it close into the second half, their best route is to shorten the game. I like Georgia below two touchdowns.
New users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code and score a bonus to use on any of Saturday’s games.
2. Duke vs. Miami Prediction: Miami -10.5
- Pick: Miami -10.5 (57¢ on Kalshi)
Miami (8-1, 6-0 ACC) is still unbeaten in conference play, and the receiving depth it showed against Notre Dame matters this week. With Malachi Toney sidelined for that game, Cooper Barkate caught 10 passes for 92 yards and two touchdowns, while tight end Elija Lofton added seven catches for 113 yards and a score.
Toney is out against Duke. Barkate and Lofton accounted for all three Miami touchdown catches at Notre Dame, giving Heisman Trophy odds candidate Darian Mensah two targets even with Miami’s leading receiver sidelined.
Duke (7-2) won 41-3 at NC State and beat Boston College 47-2 the week before. That 88-5 stretch is why this is my toughest spread pick. Even without Toney, I like Miami’s chances of scoring touchdowns rather than settling for field goals: Mensah found both Barkate and Lofton for scores against Notre Dame. A ten-point Miami win still leaves this pick a point short.
Before making any bet this weekend, scan the prediction market apps to find the best price.
3. USC vs. Indiana Prediction: Indiana -6.5
- Pick: Indiana -6.5 (59¢ on Kalshi)
Indiana (8-1) and USC (7-2) meet for the first time as Big Ten opponents, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. Both teams are coming off a bye, so neither side carries a rest advantage.
Indiana’s defense is why I’ll lay less than a touchdown. The Hoosiers made 11 tackles for loss, including four sacks, in their 23-16 overtime win over Minnesota. A sack that pushes USC out of field-goal range could be the difference between a four-point win and a seven-point cover.
USC just beat Ohio State 30-18, and Indiana’s 4-1 record in one-score games cuts both ways here. A narrow home win is hardly a stretch; a three-point win does us no good. At -6.5, though, Indiana can repeat the margin from the Minnesota game and cash. I would leave it alone at -7.5.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
