Florida State vs Pitt Prediction, Betting Line & Friday CFB Picks (Nov. 13)

• Pitt returns off a bye to host Florida State on Friday night
• The Seminoles bring momentum after a late win over Boston College, snapping a three-game losing skid
• See below for my Florida State vs Pitt prediction and Friday CFB pick

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The Florida State Seminoles (4-5) head north to face the Pittsburgh Panthers (6-3) at Acrisure Stadium, with kickoff set for 7 p.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 13, on ESPN.

Both teams come in with recent momentum. Florida State is fresh off a 31-24 win over Boston College, while Pitt ground Georgia Tech down in a 34-11 win on Oct. 31 before its bye week.

Florida State vs Pitt Prediction

• Forecast: Pitt’s home defense and rested legs carry the Panthers to a win.

My Florida State vs Pitt prediction starts with the way the Panthers defend the run at Acrisure Stadium.

The Panthers are 5-1 at home and have outscored opponents 208-66 there. They allow just 11.0 points and 55.8 rushing yards per home game. In all five home wins, Pitt held its opponent to 14 points or fewer.

The offense has carried its share, too. Pitt averages 446.1 total yards per game. Damon Ferguson has 662 rushing yards, including 185 against Georgia Tech, while Holden Geriner threw for 180 yards and a touchdown without an interception in that win. Admittedly, a lot of this production came from the now-injured Mason Heintschel (14 total touchdowns, one interception at home), but Pitt did knock of Georgia Tech without Heintschel.

Rest is another edge. Pitt had a bye after beating Georgia Tech, while Florida State turns around on a short week after playing Boston College on Saturday.

The Case for Florida State vs Pitt

Florida State is not an easy out. Under interim coach Rick Stockstill, the Seminoles found a way to beat Boston College, and Amari Thomas scored the winning touchdown with 2:29 remaining.

Thomas finished with 19 carries for 98 yards and two scores. Ashton Daniels went 15 of 26 for 178 yards and added 38 rushing yards, while Micahi Danzy caught seven passes for 86 yards.

History also suggests a close game. Pitt won 34-31 in Tallahassee last season and leads the series 7-5. That result came with different rosters and a different Florida State staff, though, so I lean more on this year’s home numbers.

Florida State vs Pitt Betting Line

BetMGM line as of Nov. 13 at 1:09 a.m. ET. Kalshi prices as of Nov. 13 at 3:06 a.m. ET.

The Florida State vs Pitt betting line makes the Panthers a modest home favorite. BetMGM has Pitt laying 3.5 points with a total of 52.5, and Kalshi prices Pitt to win at 61¢, which pays $1 before fees if the Panthers win.

The key difference is straight up versus covering. Pitt needs to win by four or more to cover -3.5, but a win by any margin cashes a to-win position. You can compare more college football odds before kickoff.

Florida State vs Pitt Friday CFB Picks

Friday CFB Pick #1: Pitt to Win vs Florida State

My Friday CFB pick is Pitt to win. The Panthers have been at their best at home, and Florida State has to find points against a defense that held all five of its home-win opponents to 14 points or fewer.

Florida State’s path runs through Thomas and Daniels on the ground. Pitt allows just 55.8 rushing yards per home game, which makes that plan much harder to sustain for four quarters.

The biggest risk is a one-score finish. The Seminoles just won a close game late, and last year’s meeting was decided by three points. That is why I prefer backing Pitt straight up instead of asking it to cover the hook.

While Florida State is 4-5, the ‘Noles had second-half leads against both Alabama and Miami and were tied with SMU deep into the fourth quarter. Florida State is still a talented squad, even if the coaching leaves something to be desired.

With Ferguson leading a rested offense and the home defense setting the tone, I like Pitt to keep the ball on the ground late. If you are shopping for a place to back it, our breakdown of college football betting apps covers your options.