Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction, Updated Odds & Best Bets

• The Ole Miss Rebels travel to square off on Saturday against the Florida Gators
• Jadan Baugh and Trinidad Chambliss headline a matchup of unbeaten teams
• Read below for my final Ole Miss vs Florida predictions, updated odds and best bets

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No. 4 Ole Miss visits No. 21 Florida on Saturday, September 26, with both teams sitting at 3-0. Kickoff at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and neither team had an easy time getting through its SEC opener.

The Rebels beat LSU 32-24, while the Gators escaped Auburn with a 44-39 victory. Florida brings a productive rushing attack home to Gainesville, but Ole Miss has the quarterback to keep this game uncomfortable well into the fourth quarter.

My final Ole Miss vs Florida prediction comes down to how those offenses match up, rather than which team has the cleaner record. Here is where I land on the spread and total, with the updated prices and the players driving those picks.

Ole Miss vs Florida Prediction

• Prediction: Florida 34, Ole Miss 27

I am taking Florida at home, with its running game the biggest reason. Jadan Baugh has rushed for 458 yards and eight touchdowns through three games. That gives the Gators a reliable way to move the chains without asking Aaron Philo to match Trinidad Chambliss throw for throw.

Baugh is not the only reason I like this offense. Philo has thrown for 721 yards and six touchdowns, so loading the box carries a cost. Florida can make Ole Miss defend the run first and still punish a defense that commits too many bodies to stopping it.

The obvious concern is what happened on the other side of the ball at Auburn. Allowing 39 points is hardly a reason to call Florida’s defense dominant. I expect the Gators to give up scoring drives here, which is why my prediction is that Ole Miss will reach the high twenties rather than being shut down.

Chambliss threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns against LSU, with Traylon Ray contributing 115 yards on seven receptions. Those performances are a reminder that Florida will need to finish its own drives. Field goals could leave the door open for Ole Miss to take control late.

Updated Ole Miss vs Florida Odds

BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and Bet365 prices checked September 26 at 10:06 AM ET. American odds rounded from the listed decimal prices.

Florida needs to win by four or more to cover the current spread. A three-point victory would cash the moneyline and lose the spread bet, making that extra half-point meaningful in a game I expect to remain competitive. Compare the Ole Miss vs Florida odds before deciding which price to take.

The total is 58.5, so 59 combined points are needed for the over. My 34-27 projection clears it, but not by enough to ignore the price. The BetMGM promo code page has the current offer for eligible readers opening an account.

Ole Miss vs Florida Best Bets

• Spread pick: Florida -3.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

I am comfortable laying the hook because Florida has more than one way to sustain its offense. Baugh can handle the rushing work, while Philo gives the Gators a passing option if Ole Miss starts crowding the line. At home, I prefer that balance to relying on a few long completions.

This is still a modest favorite against a strong opponent. Ole Miss already has wins over Louisville and LSU, so I am not dismissing its record as a product of a soft schedule. Florida needs to earn this cover with consistent drives rather than wait for the Rebels to hand it over.

• Total pick: Over 58.5 (-115 at Bet365)

The over follows from the same game script: Florida moves the ball on the ground, and Chambliss keeps Ole Miss answering through the air. Both teams just won conference games in which the opposing offenses had late chances. I see enough scoring potential on each side to prefer the over.

For other games on Saturday’s slate, compare the markets available through College Football betting apps. That is especially useful when a spread sits on the other side of a key number, as this one does at 3.5.