Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction, Early Odds & How to Watch

• Ohio State heads to Kinnick Stadium to face unbeaten Iowa in Week 5
• The Buckeyes’ passing game meets a Hawkeyes team fresh off a dramatic road win
• Check out my Ohio State vs Iowa prediction, plus the early odds and how to watch, below

#5 Ohio State visits #14 Iowa on Saturday, with both teams coming off wins in their Big Ten openers. Kickoff at Kinnick Stadium is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

The Buckeyes beat Illinois 42-19 to improve to 3-1. Iowa remained unbeaten at 4-0 when Hank Brown found Reece Vander Zee for a touchdown on the final play of a 20-19 win at Michigan.

The early line makes Ohio State a sizable road favorite. Below are my Ohio State vs Iowa prediction, a look at the early odds and how to watch Saturday’s matchup.

Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction

• Pick: Under 45.5 (-108 at BetMGM)

I’m taking Under 45.5. My case starts with Iowa’s ability to keep a game competitive without turning it into a shootout. The Hawkeyes held Michigan to 19 points last week and needed every bit of that defensive effort to escape Ann Arbor.

The bigger question is how much Iowa can contribute offensively against a top National Championship odds contender. The Hawkeyes rushed for only 58 yards on 24 carries at Michigan. Brown’s late touchdown drive was excellent, but that finish should not hide an afternoon in which Iowa struggled to establish its ground game.

Ohio State’s passing attack is the clear risk to this pick. Julian Sayin threw for 367 yards against Illinois, with Heisman Trophy odds candidate Jeremiah Smith accounting for 217 receiving yards. Iowa cannot afford to give that combination easy explosives or leave its defense protecting short fields.

For the Under to cash, I need Iowa to make Ohio State work through longer possessions and finish some drives with field goals. That is a tougher ask than last week, but I prefer the total to laying nearly two touchdowns at Kinnick. A few stalled Iowa drives could matter just as much as its defensive stops.

Ohio State vs Iowa Recent Form & Matchup Analysis

Iowa’s win at Michigan deserves credit, but the way it happened matters for this total. The Hawkeyes finished with 285 yards while allowing 429. Brown threw for 227 yards and two touchdowns, yet Iowa still needed a 91-yard drive at the end to pull the game out.

That result shows Iowa can survive an uneven offensive afternoon. It also shows why I am not treating its unbeaten record as evidence that it can trade scores with Ohio State. The Hawkeyes need to avoid falling behind early enough that Brown has to throw into predictable coverage on every possession.

Ohio State presents a different challenge because Smith can turn a well-defended play into a big gain. Iowa’s first priority should be limiting those explosives, even if that means conceding shorter completions. Making Sayin complete several passes on a drive gives the defense more chances to force a punt or field-goal attempt.

My Under depends on that patience holding up. Iowa does not have to shut Ohio State down completely, but it cannot let a handful of quick scores turn this into a chase. I would be less interested in the bet if the total dropped substantially before kickoff. Before you bet this weekend, scan the best college football betting apps to find the top price.

Ohio State vs Iowa Early Odds

Odds from BetMGM as of September 27. Use the BetMGM promo code to bet on college football this weekend.

Ohio State is favored by 13.5 points in the early college football odds. Iowa backers get the half-point below two touchdowns, while the Buckeyes need a win by at least 14 to cover. That spread and the 45.5 total suggest the market expects Iowa’s offense to face a difficult afternoon.

The moneyline tells a similar story: Iowa is +475 to win outright, meaning a $10 bet would earn $47.50 in profit. My play is the total, though. I’m betting on the combined score staying below 46, regardless of which team covers.

How to Watch Ohio State vs Iowa

• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City

Saturday gives Iowa a chance to follow its Michigan upset with another statement against a conference contender. For Ohio State, the challenge is carrying last week’s passing production into a road environment where empty possessions could keep the home underdog within reach.