Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Predictions, Odds & Best Bets for Opening Night (Sept. 29)
By Michael Schwartz in NHL Hockey
Published:
- Compare the opening-night odds for Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
- See my prediction and the matchup factors behind the pick
- Get puck-drop time, TV details and the latest lineup considerations
It’s a classic original 6 matchup as part of the NHL’s season opening slate tonight, as Canadiens vs Maple Leafs headlines the first night of the new campaign. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena. Both clubs begin the 2026-27 regular season with a clean record and renewed hopes of optimism.
That makes this a different betting exercise from a midseason game. Previous results offer context, but roster changes, availability and the starting goalie can matter more than a short run of results from the previous campaign.
I break down my Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction below, along with the moneyline, total and the key details to consider before betting. The goal is to find a playable price rather than assume last season will repeat itself.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick
- Pick: Montreal moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)
The historical betting trends below predate this season opener. Backing Montreal on the moneyline at -110 offers excellent value given recent performance metrics. Toronto has been incredibly cold on home ice, posting an poor 2-13 record over their last 15 games at Scotiabank Arena. These struggles amplify against this specific opponent, as the Maple Leafs have lost their last three head-to-head meetings.
Conversely, Montreal has thrived as the visiting team, boasting a strong 13-5 road record over their last 18 away games. Adding to their road results, they have a 100% win rate in their last three games against Toronto. With the home side stumbling to a 2-8 overall record in their last 10, making fading Toronto our strongest angle.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Odds
Market snapshot as of September 28. Compare the available prices across NHL betting apps before placing a wager.
A $10 bet on Montreal at -110 would return $9.09 in profit if it wins, plus the original stake. Moneyline bets concern the outright winner and the total concerns the combined goals. Those are separate markets, and one team winning does not necessarily mean the game goes over that number.
Toronto Roster Changes and Betting Impact
Toronto completed its trade for Kirill Marchenko, Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins on Monday, sending Matthew Knies, Steven Lorentz and Emil Andrae to Columbus. The deal changes the roster, but I would wait for game-day confirmation before assuming any newcomer’s minutes or linemates.
That is also why I would not simply project last season’s Toronto results forward. The Canadiens moneyline is a price-based preference in a closely matched market, not a prediction that the Maple Leafs cannot improve. Toronto’s new personnel are a reason to keep the stake measured.
The goalie decision is another final check. Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz give Toronto different options, but a roster listing does not confirm who starts. Any late lineup change should be weighed against the available price before turning this lean into a wager.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Betting Splits
The supplied moneyline snapshot shows 77.79% of the handle on Montreal. Handle measures money wagered, rather than the number of bets. It describes market positioning and should not be treated as proof that a selection is correct.
How to Watch Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
- Date: Tuesday, September 29
- Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Arena: Scotiabank Arena
- TV: Sportsnet
Try to confirm the starting goalies and any late scratches before puck drop. I would also compare the final price with the number above as a pick made at one set of odds is not automatically attractive at every shorter price.
