College Football AI Picks Week 5: Computer Predictions for ATS & Totals

• Unbeaten SEC teams meet in Starkville as Ohio State visits Iowa
• The model has ATS and total picks for 10 games
• Read below for Week 5 CFB predictions and last week’s results

The Sportradar model went 7-3 against the spread in Week 4. Totals went the other direction at 3-7, which left last week’s board even at 10-10.

That puts the season at 25-16 ATS and 22-19 on totals, or 47-35 overall. Week 5 brings 10 more games, all of them posted at the top College Football betting apps.

Here is the full slate with the college football odds each selection was recorded against, followed by four matchups worth a longer look.

College Football AI Picks for Week 5

Six of the 10 totals picks land on the under, a flip from where the model sat the past two weeks. Eight of the 10 sides back a favorite, with Iowa and Washington the only underdogs it wants.

Model selections recorded from a sportsbook feed as of October 1. These numbers move through the week, so compare current prices before betting. New customers can see what is currently offered on the BetMGM promo code page.

Alabama at Mississippi State Prediction & AI Picks

• Alabama -5.5
• Over 60.5

Both teams come in 4-0 and 2-0 in the SEC, giving this matchup more weight than it usually carries. The Bulldogs climbed to No. 16 after beating Missouri 31-24, while Alabama sits at No. 7 and is averaging 48.0 points and 471.5 yards per game.

Keelon Russell has been excellent for the Crimson Tide. He is 78-of-110 for 1,129 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, including a 21-of-27, 365-yard, four-touchdown afternoon against South Carolina.

Alabama has also been perfect once it gets close. The Tide are 19-for-19 on red zone trips with 15 touchdowns.

Kamario Taylor is the reason State is still unbeaten. He is 83-of-120 for 1,192 yards with 14 touchdowns and two picks, and he threw for 360 yards on 27-of-38 passing against Missouri in a 533.2-yard-per-game offense that is scoring 43.0.

Alabama has held opponents to 12 conversions on 52 third downs, giving the Tide a way to create the extra stops needed to cover. The over leans on Taylor keeping State involved rather than letting Alabama control the game. That is a tougher test than the Bulldogs have faced so far.

Ohio State at Iowa Prediction & AI Picks

• Iowa +14.5
• Under 45.5

Iowa is 4-0 and allowing 8.0 points and 239.8 yards per game, with shutouts of Northern Illinois and Northern Iowa on the resume. The Hawkeyes then knocked off Michigan 20-19 on a touchdown with two seconds left.

That win deserves a caveat. Michigan outgained Iowa 429-285 and still lost, so the scoring numbers look better than the yardage story in that one.

Ohio State is the best offense Iowa has faced by a wide margin. Julian Sayin is 82-of-116 for 1,206 yards and 10 touchdowns, and Jeremiah Smith has 33 catches for 617 yards and seven scores after going for 12 receptions, 217 yards and four touchdowns against Illinois.

Smith’s production has him in the middle of the Heisman odds conversation, which is rare air for a receiver. The model still wants the points at Kinnick, where laying more than two touchdowns against a defense giving up single digits is a big number to clear.

Miami at Clemson Prediction & AI Picks

• Miami (FL) -16.5
• Under 47.5

Miami is 4-0 and Clemson is 3-1, and the gap between the two offenses is wide. Darian Mensah went 23-of-27 for 338 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-3 win over Central Michigan, and he has 14 touchdown passes against 12 incompletions on the season.

Clemson is coming off its best defensive game of the year. The Tigers won 24-10 at California without allowing an offensive touchdown, which is a real result against a team that had been throwing it all over the yard.

They got there by leaning on the ground game. Gideon Davidson carried 22 times for 159 yards and two scores, while freshman Tait Reynolds threw 21 passes for 108 yards.

That combination is how you land on a 16.5-point favorite and a 47.5 total in the same game. Clemson can shorten this with Davidson and still lose by three scores if Mensah keeps completing everything.

Florida at Missouri Prediction & AI Picks

• Florida -5.5
• Over 57.5

Florida put together the loudest win of Week 4, running past Ole Miss 52-28. The Gators piled up 302 rushing yards, with Jadan Baugh going for 142 and three touchdowns and Duke Clark adding 126 yards and a score.

Missouri’s week went the other way. The Tigers led Mississippi State 24-17 heading to the fourth quarter, then got shut out the rest of the way in a 31-24 loss while being outgained 499-414.

The question is whether that Florida performance travels. Doing it in Gainesville against Ole Miss and doing it in Columbia are different tasks, and Missouri moved the ball well enough last week to stay in a track meet.

The model takes the Gators anyway and pairs it with the over. Another productive rushing day would help Florida cover, while Missouri showed enough offense against State to contribute to a total of 57.5.

College Football AI Picks: Week 4 Results

Seven of the 10 sides cashed, including both underdogs. The totals were the opposite story, with all three under picks missing and the overs going 3-4.