Anytime TD Picks & Player Props for Jets vs Bears on Oct 4

• The 1-2 Jets take on the 2-1 Bears in Week 4 NFL action on Sunday
• I’ve selected my favorite anytime TD scorers and NFL player props picks for this duel
• Keep reading for my Jets vs Bears analysis and predictions

I am locking in my favorite player props for the Jets vs Bears contest in Week 4 NFL action. This affair kicks off at Soldier Field Sunday at 1 PM ET / 10 AM PT on FOX. For New York, quarterback Geno Smith and receiver Garrett Wilson command the passing volume, while running back Breece Hall anchors the ground game. The Chicago side features running back D’Andre Swift and receiver Rome Odunze as prime targets to monitor. QB Tyson Bagent is expected to start for Chicago, with Caleb Williams injured, and Case Keenum winning a Week 3 battle vs Philly.

I always look for value where the public betting psychology misses the true probability, whether I am backing a team ATS or finding a sharp prop. Below I lay out my favorite NFL player props picks for this battle.

Best Player Prop Picks for Jets vs Bears

Pick #1: Geno Smith Under 224.5 Passing Yards (+104 / 49¢ at Kalshi)

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Smith Pass Yards O/U

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Kalshi

Smith Under 224.5 Pass Yards

49%

Predict

Stifling Soldier Field Pass Defense: The Bears’ defense has been elite against the pass at home in their first two outings holding Minnesota to 143 passing yards in Week 2 and Jalen Philadelphia to 153 passing yards in Week 3, averaging just 148.0 passing yards allowed per home game while forcing two interceptions and racking up five sacks in that span.

Game Script & Pace Control: In New York’s lone victory this season (Week 1 at Tennessee), the Jets leaned heavily on their ground game (39 rush attempts vs. 24 pass attempts), limiting Smith to 215 passing yards. Against a Chicago defense allowing only 17.7 PPG and controlling clock through run dominance, Smith is unlikely to see the 37–41 attempt volume required to clear this yardage threshold.

Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code to get this price.

Pick #2: D’Andre Swift Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-115 at BetMGM)

Workhorse Volume: D’Andre Swift logged 18 carries (124 yds, 3 TD) in Week 1, 16 carries (45 yds) in Week 2, and 20 carries (84 yds) in Week 3, clearing 14.5 carries in all three games while averaging 18.0 totes per game.

Run-First Offense: Chicago has demonstrated immense commitment to the ground attack, logging team rushing attempt counts of 39, 31, and 35 across Weeks 1–3 (averaging 35.0 team rushing attempts per game). With Swift securing 54 of the team’s 105 total carries (51.4% backfield share), his volume floor remains exceptionally secure.

BetMGM offers a solid price on this under.

Pick #3: Garrett Wilson NO Anytime Touchdown (-186 / 65¢ at Kalshi)

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Anytime TD Prediction

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Wilson Under 0.5 Touchdowns

65%

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Touchdown Distribution & Target Spread: While Garrett Wilson has seen significant target volume (27 targets through three games), the Jets’ offense has only produced four passing touchdowns all season.

Red-Zone Defensive Lockdown: Chicago’s secondary did not surrender a single passing touchdown over its last two games against Minnesota and Philadelphia, creating a challenging matchup for outside receivers to find the end zone in the red area.

Anytime Touchdown Odds & First TD Prices

Prices from Kalshi as of Saturday, October 3rd.