NHL Picks Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Monday, Oct. 5
By Chris Amberley in NHL Hockey
Published:
- Monday’s four-game NHL slate is loaded with value on the betting board
- I’m backing the Sharks to keep their perfect record in tact
- See my NHL picks today, including best bets and predictions for Monday, Oct. 5, below
My NHL picks today cover the Monday, October 5th slate, with moneyline and puck line bets. Early 2026-27 scoring trends, special teams and rest advantages help shape my predictions.
The undefeated Sharks visit a Stars team searching for its first win, while the Penguins bring a fast-starting offense into their matchup with the Jets. Elsewhere, the Lightning host the winless Flyers and the Senators visit the Bruins.
Below, I break down the NHL odds, and offer my favorite NHL picks today, including best bets and predictions for Monday, Oct. 5.
NHL Picks Today
*Odds as of Sunday, Oct. 4 at BetMGM. New users can claim the BetMGM promo code for a bonus to use on tonight’s games.
NHL Best Bets and Predictions
For tonight’s slate of games, I am predicting two favorites and two underdogs to come away with victories. The underdog with the longest odds that I am backing to win is the Sharks, offering tremendous value at +140 to keep their undefeated streak alive against a struggling offense.
San Jose Sharks vs Dallas Stars Prediction
- My pick: Sharks Moneyline (+140) at BetMGM
My Sharks vs Stars prediction backs the undefeated Sharks as road underdogs tonight. Led by Hart Trophy odds candidate Macklin Celebrini, they have started the season 2-0 while filling the back of the net at an impressive pace. The offense is averaging 4.5 goals per game, driven by a power play converting at a sharp 33.3 percent clip.
On the flip side, the Stars have stumbled out of the gate to an 0-2 record. They possess a remarkably cold offense that has managed just one single goal across two games. Averaging a dismal 0.50 goals per contest makes it incredibly difficult to justify laying -169 juice on a favorite.
The Sharks are also a profitable 4-1 as an underdog over their last five games dating back to last season. With the Stars struggling to score, I am jumping all over this plus-money opportunity.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction
- My pick: Lightning -1.5 (+120) at BetMGM
My Flyers vs Lightning pick starts with Philadelphia’s winless start and defensive struggles. Through three games, they are yielding an average of 4.33 goals against while surrendering a staggering 40.7 shots on goal per night. You simply cannot bleed that many chances against a talented roster and expect to keep games close.
The Lightning enter tonight looking to bounce back offensively, and this is the perfect get-right spot. They have thoroughly dominated this specific matchup recently, winning their last four head-to-head meetings against the Flyers.
Finding a plus-money puck line pick requires a vulnerable opponent, and the visitors fit the bill perfectly. Given the Flyers’ early defensive numbers, I am backing the home team to win by multiple goals.
Winnipeg Jets vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction
- My pick: Penguins Moneyline (-175) at BetMGM
My Jets vs Penguins prediction leans on Pittsburgh’s explosive start to the 2026-27 campaign. They are 2-0 and have been an absolute offensive juggernaut. They have poured in 13 goals over their first two contests, averaging a ridiculous 6.5 goals per game.
The Jets are coming into town on the second half of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 3-2 win yesterday. Traveling on tired legs while trying to contain a power play unit that is converting at 50 percent is a recipe for disaster. The fatigue factor is a critical situational betting angle I always look to exploit.
The Penguins are also incredibly reliable in this spot, boasting a 7-2 record at home as a favorite over their last nine games. Expect this high-flying home offense to dictate the pace and overwhelm the tired visitors.
NHL Public Betting Splits for Oct. 5
The NHL betting splits show where the reported moneyline handle is landing for tonight’s action. Looking exclusively at the matchups covered in today’s article, bettors have established clear favorites at the betting window.
Here is the heaviest public money among the games covered in this article, ordered from the highest percentage of moneyline handle to the lowest:
- Lightning [98.37%]
- Senators [84.82%]
- Stars [82.92%]
- Penguins [81.09%]
The public is showing extreme confidence in the Lightning to secure a win over the winless Flyers, with nearly all the moneyline handle backing the home team. Interestingly, despite being the road team, the Senators are also dominating the betting handle in their matchup. Meanwhile, bettors are comfortable backing both the Stars and Penguins as heavily favored home sides.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
