Updated NFL Super Bowl Odds – Biggest Risers, Fallers, & Value Picks After Week 4

Four weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the championship futures market has already experienced seismic shifts, punctuated by the Los Angeles Chargers’ catastrophic freefall after an 0-4 start. Their Super Bowl price has faded from +5000 after Week 2 to +15000 after Week 4. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams remain the favorites at +650, despite a pedestrian 2-2 record.

Behind the Rams, the board is shuffling rapidly as early-season form dictates pricing.

The table below sets out the current Super Bowl odds and how they have moved over the last fortnight. Under the table, find analysis of the biggest risers and fallers, plus my best Super Bowl value pick heading into Week 5 based on the underlying metrics.

Super Bowl Odds After Week 4

Six teams are priced at +900 or shorter in the current post-Week 4 market: the Rams (+650), Bills (+700), 49ers (+850), and Ravens, Seahawks, and Chiefs (all +900). In the winning-conference market, the NFC is currently favored at -115, narrowly ahead of the AFC at -105..

Biggest Risers

San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ odds shortened from +1100 after Week 2 to +850 after Week 4. They are 4-0, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting atop the NFC West. Their on-field dominance is reflected in 122 points scored and 64 allowed for a +58 point differential. San Francisco has also covered in 75.0% of matchups (3-1 ATS).

Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville’s price shortened from +2200 after Week 2 to +1400 after Week 4. The Jaguars hold a 3-1 record and a two-game winning streak, securing the number one spot in the AFC South. The defense has surrendered 53 points through four games, contributing to a +51 point differential. They are 3-1 ATS.

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings moved from +3000 after Week 2 to +2500 after Week 4. They remain perfect at 4-0 and sit atop the NFC standings. Minnesota has allowed 51 points, with a +35 point differential, and has a 3-1 ATS record.

Biggest Fallers

Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers’ odds lengthened from +5000 after Week 2 to +15000 after Week 4. Los Angeles is 0-4, has lost four straight games, and sits at the bottom of the AFC West. Their point differential is -39, and they have failed to cover in any rated matchups (0-3 ATS).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s odds lengthened from +6600 after Week 2 to +20000 after Week 4. The Buccaneers are 0-4 and sit last in the NFC standings. They have scored 76 points and allowed 96 (a -20 differential), and are 0-4 ATS.

Houston Texans
Houston’s price drifted from +2200 after Week 2 to +7500 after Week 4. The Texans are 0-4 and recently lost 34-30 to the Dallas Cowboys, despite putting up 30 points.

Super Bowl Futures Picks

Comparing the current post-Week 4 prices with the model probabilities, both proposed picks show a small positive mathematical edge. The Post-Week 2 column provides the earlier-market reference point; the Movement column tracks the change from that price to the current odds.

Cincinnati Bengals (+2500)

Cincinnati brings a 2-2 record (50.0% win rate), a matching 50.0% ATS mark but, if Joe Burrow wasn’t throwing uncharacteristically awful interceptions, the Bengals would be 4-0. They just dropped a narrow 22-17 decision to the Jacksonville Jaguars and lost by three at Pittsburgh the week prior.

On the season, the Bengals average 24.25 points and 351.75 net yards offensively, featuring a 50.00% red-zone conversion rate. Defensively, they surrender 21.25 points and 347.50 yards per game, yielding a 44.00% third-down rate while generating 3.50 sacks.

At +2500, the market-implied probability is 3.85%, below the model’s 4.2% championship likelihood, a model-estimated edge of 0.35 percentage points. Now is a great time to get a championship contender at a semi-longshot price.