White Sox vs Guardians Game 3 Player Props & Picks (Oct 7)
By Chris Amberley in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The White Sox and Guardians meet in Game 3 of the ALDS this afternoon
- I’m looking to fade Miguel Vargas in the total bases market
- See the best White Sox vs Guardians Game 3 player props and picks on Oct 7, below
The American League Division Series shifts to the South Side with the Chicago White Sox (84-78 regular season) holding a commanding 2-0 series lead over their AL Central rivals, the Cleveland Guardians (85-77 regular season).
Following consecutive road victories in Cleveland—including a 3-0 shutout in Game 1 and a tense 4-3 triumph in Game 2—the White Sox stand just one win away from clinching a spot in the ALCS. First pitch for this pivotal Game 3 is scheduled for 4:00 PM ET (3:00 PM local CT) today from Guaranteed Rate Field, broadcast live on TBS.
With Cleveland facing elimination on the road, both clubs turn to their pitching depth as Guardians rookie right-hander Daniel Espino battles White Sox veteran southpaw Sean Newcomb. I’m looking past the spread and total markets for this showdown, choosing to focus on MLB player props instead. Keep reading for my White Sox vs Guardians Game 3 player props and picks for Oct 7, below.
White Sox vs Guardians Game 3 Player Props
Prices are from Kalshi. Yes/No contract prices converted from cents to American odds and rounded to the nearest whole number. Grab the Kalshi promo code to lock in these lines.
Chicago vs Cleveland Player Prop Trends
- Steven Kwan has exceeded 0.5 hits in 13 of his last 15 road games (87.0%). However, he is 0-5 versus a total bases line of 1.5 in his last five matchups against the White Sox (0.0%).
- Jo Adell has gone over 0.5 hits in 3 of his last 4 road games (75.0%).
- Jose Ramirez has fallen short of 1.5 total bases in 9 of his last 10 road games (90.0%), and failed to exceed 0.5 hits in 3 of his last 4 games against Chicago (75.0%).
- Miguel Vargas is 1-9 versus a total bases over/under of 1.5 in his last 10 games, hitting the under at a 90.0% clip.
White Sox vs Guardians Player Prop Picks for Game 3
When analyzing the MLB odds board for this American League clash of World Series odds contenders, several player props stand out based on recent performance trends. Rather than hunting extreme longshots, my selections target consistent batter production and notable player slumps.
Pick 1: Miguel Vargas Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164 at Kalshi)
I am leading off by fading Chicago’s Miguel Vargas. Simply put, Vargas has struggled to find extra-base power or string together multi-hit games over the past few weeks. His swing is effectively a wet noodle right now, making the Under on his total bases a phenomenal target.
Vargas has failed to exceed 1.5 total bases in 9 of his last 10 games. During this stretch, he is averaging a meager 0.7 total bases per game.
Pick 2: Patrick Bailey Over 0.5 Hits (-129 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Cleveland catcher Patrick Bailey presents a reliable option to record at least one total base, cashing if he reaches base on a single, double, triple, or home run. The odds are relatively modest for this market, reflecting respect for his recent form.
Bailey has been a true road warrior. He has gone over 0.5 total bases in 5 of 7 road games (71%), maintaining a robust average of 2.0 total bases per contest away from home. He has also exceeded 0.5 total bases in 8 of his last 13 games overall. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code to tail this pick.
Pick 3: Randal Grichuk Over 0.5 Hits (-175 at BetMGM)
While the price requires laying a bit of juice, Randal Grichuk has been one of Chicago’s most consistent contact hitters over his last 20 appearances.
Grichuk has safely hit the Over on this prop line in 14 of his last 20 games (70%). Over that sizable sample, he is averaging 1.1 hits per game. Considering Cleveland’s pitching staff features several relievers projected for short stints, Grichuk will see varied looks from the mound. This frequent turnover gives his steady bat a strong chance to poke a hit through the infield. New users can score a bonus to bet in this market with the BetMGM promo code.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
