Rays vs Yankees Player-Prop Picks & Best Bets for Game 3 (Oct 7)
By Michael Harrison in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from eliminating the New York Yankees from the ALDS
- Tampa Bay’s Nick Martinez gets the call, going up against New York’s Max Fried
- See my favorite MLB player props picks and analysis
The Tampa Bay Rays fight to eliminate the New York Yankees in the Bronx Wednesday night, as they attempt to sweep The Pinstripes out of the postseason. Southpaw Max Fried takes the mound at Yankee Stadium to counter Tampa Bay right-hander Nick Martinez. First pitch for this pivotal Game 3 is scheduled for 8 PM ET / 5 PM PT, broadcast on truTV and Max.
The AL East-champion Rays look to finish off the sweep behind a disciplined batting order and an elite bullpen that has yielded just two total runs through two games. Backed by full-season splits, advanced pitching metrics, and high-leverage October trends, I am diving deep into the MLB player props to uncover the highest-value hitting and pitching angles for this clash.
Rays vs Yankees Game 3 Player Props
The odds in the tables, below, are Kalshi contract prices converted to American odds.
Hitting Props
The MLB odds show that Ben Rice has the shortest odds to leave the yard. His home-run price is 23¢ (equal to +355). No other player is shorter than +456 at Kalshi.
Pitching Props
Best Rays vs Yankees Player Props
Pick #1: Max Fried 5+ Strikeouts (+113 / 47¢, Kalshi)
The data strongly suggests that the Yankees starter will have ample opportunity to rack up strikeouts. I am bypassing the traditional -101 consensus odds for Over 4.5 strikeouts and grabbing the Yes 47¢ contract on Kalshi, which offers a far superior payout.
- Max Fried has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in three of his last four games (a 75% Over rate).
- In those recent outings, Fried has generated a performance of 5.8 strikeouts per game, comfortably clearing this threshold on average..
With his historical consistency on the mound, fading the heavily juiced traditional market in favor of this prediction market contract is a savvy move. To find a situational edge, I always review MLB batter vs pitcher stats.
Pick #2: Yandy Díaz Under 1.5 Total Bases (-156 / 61¢, Kalshi)
If you prefer fading cold bats, stepping in front of the Rays designated hitter is backed by a mountain of evidence. Díaz has struggled to generate extra-base hits or string together multi-hit performances lately.
- Yandy Díaz is 4-13 versus a total bases over/under of 1.5 over his last 17 games, cashing the Under at an overwhelming 76% clip.
- In the postseason (eight at-bats), Díaz holds a mediocre .250 batting average and a low-impact .333 slugging percentage.
While traditional books like Caesars ask you to lay a steep -176 price tag on the Under, I am locking in the No 61¢ contract on Kalshi. This translates to significantly better odds while still capitalizing on him not being on fire in the first two games vs the Yankees.
Pick #3: Austin Wells Over 0.5 Hits (+100 / 50%, Novig)
I am closing with an even-money opportunity that simply cannot be ignored based on recent form. The Yankees catcher has been locked in at the plate, making his hits prop an extremely attractive target.
- Austin Wells has gone over 0.5 hits in all four postseason duels.
- Over this recent four-game stretch, Wells is averaging 1.2 hits per outing.
Yankee Stadium Ballpark Factors
When analyzing MLB park factors, the environment at Yankee Stadium plays a pivotal role in shaping my expectations. Here is how the Bronx venue played offensively during the 2026 regular season:
- Runs per Game: 8.80 (Ranked 15th overall)
- Hits per Game: 15.45
- Home Runs per Game: 2.70
- Extra-Base Hits per Game: 5.97
Ranking exactly in the middle of the pack for runs per game, Yankee Stadium has played fairly neutral overall. However, the venue still yielded a healthy 2.70 home runs and nearly six extra-base hits per contest. The stadium’s infamous short porch in right field always keeps home run props in play.
Rays vs Yankees Odds
Odds as of October 7 from BetMGM.
The Yankees enter this American League clash as clear -161 moneyline favorites at home, reflecting oddsmakers’ confidence in Max Fried and the Bronx Bombers despite Aaron Judge’s absence. Bettors looking to back the underdog Rays can find an appealing +135 payout on the moneyline, though taking the safety of the Rays ATS requires laying -169 juice.
The primary total of seven runs has held firm, but the juice on the Over has shifted to -125.
Sports & Entertainment Writer
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 20 years, is the CEO of his "All Bets Par Off" weekly golf betting videos and his HDOG POD, along with several others.
