College Football Upset Predictions Week 6: Top Underdog Picks Today
By Michael Schwartz in College Football
Published:
- My Week 6 college football upset predictions target three Saturday underdogs
- The picks span an SEC showdown and two potential home upsets
- See how rushing matchups and turnover margins support each moneyline bet
I’m looking for more than a big payout with my college football upset picks this week. Georgia, Fresno State and West Virginia each have a statistical route to winning outright, although the challenges are different.
College Football Upset Picks for Week 6
My Week 6 underdog picks range from Georgia’s near-even matchup to Fresno State’s longer-shot bid. The current college football odds help separate the potential payout from the football case.
Prices from Kalshi as of Oct. 9. Compare prediction market apps and see the Novig promo code for another market option.
A winning contract returns $1. At 30¢, that is a 70¢ profit before fees, approximately +233 American odds. The positive moneyline equivalent describes the profit on a $100 stake, although it does not guarantee the upset.
CFB Upset Pick #1: Georgia Moneyline vs Alabama
- Georgia ML (47¢ on Kalshi)
My Georgia vs Alabama upset prediction starts with a 5-0 record, a 3-0 SEC mark and the No. 2 ranking against No. 6 Alabama. The Bulldogs’ profile supplies a credible outright path as they average 51.4 points and 213 rushing yards per game while allowing only 13.4 points and 57.4 rushing yards per game. Alabama is also explosive at 49.6 points per game, but Georgia can attack the area most likely to shorten the game, while Alabama’s run defense allows 78.6 yards per game.
Georgia’s quarterback, Gunner Stockton, has 1,049 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, one interception and a 75.5% completion rate. He just produced 295 yards and three touchdowns in a 38-14 win over Vanderbilt. If Georgia runs efficiently enough to prevent Alabama from teeing off on Stockton, the Bulldogs can convert their defensive discipline into a road upset. The risk is obvious however, as Alabama’s scoring pace leaves little room for empty possessions.
CFB Upset Pick #2: Fresno State Moneyline vs Boise State
- Fresno State ML (30¢ on Kalshi)
My Fresno State vs Boise State upset pick has a realistic formula despite trailing Boise State in overall offensive production. Boise averages 34 points and 438.2 total yards per game, compared with Fresno’s 27.4 points and 367.2 total yards. That gap makes extra possessions especially important.
Fresno State needs to turn its superior ball-security profile into field position and extra opportunities, as the Bulldogs have three giveaways and a plus-eight turnover differential, while Boise is plus-two with three giveaways.
Fresno’s defense has also generated 13 sacks, slightly ahead of Boise’s 12, giving the home underdog a way to disrupt a Broncos offense that otherwise creates more yardage.
The recent results support a controlled-game script as Fresno State just beat Washington State 26-6, while Boise handled Utah State 37-18. Fresno’s 76.2% red-zone scoring rate is below Boise’s 85.7%, but that makes finishing drives the central upset condition rather than a minor detail.
Third-down efficiency is another concern, with the numbers showing 35.4% for Fresno against 52.9% for Boise. The pick works if Fresno wins the turnover battle decisively, survives third down and avoids settling for field goals.
CFB Upset Pick #3: West Virginia Moneyline vs Arizona
- West Virginia ML (40¢ on Kalshi)
My West Virginia vs Arizona prediction favors the home underdog, especially with the game at Milan Puskar Stadium. The Mountaineers average 37.4 points and 472.0 total yards per game, compared with Arizona’s 32.4 points and 451.4 total yards. Their 1,470 rushing yards provide a practical possession advantage, as West Virginia can keep the Wildcats’ offense on the sideline while forcing Arizona to defend longer, and delivering more physical drives.
Arizona’s best counter is its 57.8% third-down conversion rate and 19-for-21 red-zone record. The Wildcats have 15 sacks and enough passing efficiency to punish defensive lapses.
However, Arizona’s minus-four turnover differential and seven giveaways compare poorly with West Virginia’s plus-one margin, three interceptions and three fumble recoveries. West Virginia has converted 19 of 22 red-zone opportunities and sits at 50.0% on third down. If the Mountaineers protect the ball and turn home-field energy into early rushing success, they have the cleaner upset route.
These three outright picks require different game scripts to take place. Georgia controls the line of scrimmage, Fresno creates a turnover-driven low-margin game, and West Virginia uses its home rushing attack to deny Arizona extra possessions.
