Bears vs Packers Player Props & Touchdown Picks
By Jordan Tomiyama in NFL News
Published:
- The Chicago Bears head into their rival’s home stadium to square off against the Green Bay Packers
- Caleb Williams is still out with an injury. Who steps up for Da Bears?
- You’ll have to keep scrolling to see player prop bets, touchdown picks, and the latest odds
Historic NFC North hostilities renew at Lambeau Field as the Chicago Bears (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) square off against the Green Bay Packers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 2-2 O/U) at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. The prop market offers distinct value given the high-profile backfield injuries in Chicago.
With Caleb Williams out due to a hamstring injury, the Bears turn to Tyson Bagent and a hobbled D’Andre Swift to manage the clock and grind out possessions.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love and the Packers look to capitalize on home turf, dialing up downfield shots to Christian Watson and Tucker Kraft. Evaluating usage rates and recent player splits reveals multiple mispriced NFL props on both sides of the board.
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Player Props
Passing Props / Odds via BetMGM
Tyson Bagent’s passing yards line ticked up to 215.5 after taking over the top spot on the depth chart. Jordan Love sits slightly higher at 235.5 passing yards. Both signal callers share a total of 20.5 pass completions for Sunday’s contest.
Odds from BetMGM as of 1:27 AM ET on October 11, 2026
Rushing and Receiving Props / Odds via Bet365
The backfield lines highlight significant movement for D’Andre Swift. His rushing yards total jumped from 61.5 to. 83.5, with his rushing attempts resting at 18.5. For Green Bay, MarShawn Lloyd saw his rushing yards line dip to 26.5. Christian Watson leads the receiving market at 60.5 yards.
Odds from BetMGM as of 1:37 AM ET on October 11, 2026
Touchdown Props at Caesars Sportsbook
Shopped at Kalshi for the absolute best payouts, D’Andre Swift is the only player entering this game with minus odds to score a touchdown. He sits at -170 to find paydirt. Green Bay’s top touchdown options include MarShawn Lloyd at +115 and Christian Watson at +168
Odds from Caesars Sportsbook as of 1:37 AM ET on October 11, 2026
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Player Betting Trends
- Tyson Bagent has failed to exceed 220.5 passing yards in 6 straight road games (46.3 passing yards/game average).
- D’Andre Swift has failed to exceed 67.5 rushing yards in 7 of his last 8 games against the Green Bay Packers (47.0 rushing yards/game average).
- Cole Kmet has exceeded 1.5 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games against the Green Bay Packers (2.9 receptions/game average).
- Tucker Kraft has failed to exceed 4.5 receptions in 4 straight games against the Chicago Bears (1.8 receptions/game average).
- MarShawn Lloyd has failed to exceed 27.5 rushing yards in 4 of his last 5 games (19.2 rushing yards/game average).
Best Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Player Prop Bets
Evaluating individual player trends reveals a few glaring opportunities for Sunday. Chicago’s offensive adjustments without their primary quarterback provide actionable sports betting picks.
- Pick #1: Tyson Bagent Under 224.5 Pass Yards (55¢ / -122 at Kalshi)
The Packers allow just 200.5 passing yards per game and feature a pass rush that generates pressure on nearly 35% of opponents’ dropbacks. Stepping into the starting role in place of Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent faces a steep historical hurdle in hostile road environments. Bagent has failed to exceed 224.5 passing yards in six straight road games, posting a suppressed 46.3-yard-per-game average in that split.
Operating in Shane Waldron’s road offense, Bagent averages an ultra-conservative 6.4 intended air yards per attempt, relying heavily on swing passes, screens, and checkdowns to mitigate pocket heat. Against a disciplined Green Bay secondary that rarely surrenders deep passing plays, Bagent will struggle to accumulate enough chunk gains to threaten this passing total, making the Under the sharp side.
- Pick #2: D’Andre Swift Under 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Bet365)
D’Andre Swift has consistently struggled in this specific divisional matchup, failing to exceed 83.5 rushing yards in seven of his last eight career meetings against the Green Bay Packers while averaging just 47.0 rushing yards per contest. While Swift remains Chicago’s primary backfield option, he is currently nursing a hip issue that threatens his snap efficiency in the second half.
Green Bay’s defensive front has stiffened significantly between the tackles, holding opposing lead rushers to under 3.8 yards per carry over the last three weeks. With the Bears likely relying on extended passing volume if they fall behind early, Swift’s rushing opportunities will get squeezed, keeping his yardage output well below this 67.5-yard line.
- Pick #3: D’Andre Swift Anytime Touchdown (58¢ / -138 at Polymarket)
Despite a fading rushing-yardage ceiling, Swift is priced at -138 on Polymarket to punch in a touchdown, presenting incredible goal-line value. Swift commands elite high-leverage volume inside the 20-yard line, having already demonstrated a three-touchdown ceiling in Week 1 and logging 69 total carries through four games (17.3 attempts per contest).
With a heavy rushing volume line set at 15.5 attempts and Williams sidelined, Chicago’s red-zone play-calling will funnel almost exclusively into designated goal-to-go carries and designed backfield swing passes to Swift. Expect the Bears to rely on their primary offensive weapon to cap off scoring drives near the stripe. LOCK IT IN.
- Pick #4: Cole Kmet Over 4.5 Receptions (-110 at Bet365)
Cole Kmet has exceeded 1.5 receptions in seven of his last eight games against the Green Bay Packers, compiling a reliable 2.9 receptions per game average in this divisional feud. When backup quarterbacks step into starting roles, tight ends historically serve as the ultimate security blanket over the middle of the field on quick-release reads.
Kmet already hauled in two receptions last week and presents Bagent with an imposing physical mismatch against Green Bay’s linebacker corps on shallow crossers and seam routes. Getting plus-money (+129) on a trusted security valve needing just two grabs to cash is a MASSIVE steal on Sunday’s card.
Odds/Prices from Bet365, Caesars Sportsbook, and Kalshi as of 1:37 AM ET on October 11, 2026
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Weather Forecast & Impact
- Stadium: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Environment: Outdoor
- Surface: Turf
Weather conditions for Sunday’s 1:00 PM ET kickoff at Lambeau Field call for classic autumn football in Green Bay: crisp temperatures hovering in the mid-50s, partly cloudy skies, and manageable sustained winds around 8 to 11 mph with minimal threat of precipitation. Because wind speeds are projected to remain well below the critical 15-to-20 mph threshold that historically disrupts passing depth and kicking accuracy, the elements will not be a primary impediment to offensive execution or scoring output.
Instead, any downward pressure on the 45.5-point total will stem purely from scheme and personnel – specifically Chicago leaning into a ball-control, run-heavy game plan with backup quarterback Tyson Bagent managing the offense and bleeding play-clock seconds, rather than any weather-related hurdles on the frozen tundra
Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Odds
- Spread: Chicago Bears -1.5 (-108 at BetMGM) | Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline: Chicago Bears -124 at Caesars Sportsbook | Green Bay Packers +105 at Caesars Sportsbook
- Total: Over 46.5 (-114 at Bet365) | Under 46.5 (-106 at Bet365)
Looking at the NFL odds provided by BetMGM, the Bears enter Lambeau Field as slight 1.5-point road favorites. The moneyline reflects a tight projection, pricing the visiting Bears at -124. The 46.5-point total suggests a highly competitive divisional clash is expected on Sunday.
Odds/Prices from Bet365, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook as of 1:57 AM ET on October 11, 2026
Jordan has worked in sports media for the last seven years, writing articles, managing social media, and covering sporting events for various media outlets. Jordan's work focuses on NBA, WNBA, college basketball, and the NHL.
