NASCAR DFS Picks – Bank of America 400 Projections, Lineup & Strategy

• Rain wiped out practice and qualifying for the third straight weekend, leaving the metric to scramble the Bank of America 400 grid
• Two-time 2026 winner Corey Heim headlines the recovery plays from 37th, behind a Hamlin and Bell dominator core
• Below, see our NASCAR DFS picks, projections, lineup, and strategy for the Bank of America 400

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I’m starting to think NASCAR schedules practice just to give the rain something to cancel.

Bristol. Kansas. Now Charlotte. We’ve spent enough Saturdays staring at weather radar that I should qualify for an entry-level meteorology position.

Rain canceled practice and qualifying again, leaving NASCAR’s metric to set the starting lineup for Sunday’s Bank of America 400. The first useful long-run data will arrive after we’ve submitted our lineups, which is a thoughtful arrangement.

The fall race returns to Charlotte’s oval after eight seasons on the Roval. Recent oval results and our comparable-track sample give us something to work with while Saturday’s lap-time sheet enjoys more paid time off.

There are 267 scheduled laps, plenty of dominator points available and several drivers starting well behind where the models expect them to finish. We’re spending the full $50,000 on a lineup with recovery potential throughout and enough speed at the top to chase the biggest scores.

Bank of America 400 Lineup

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Bank of America 400 Projections

Denny Hamlin ($11,200) | Starting Position: 12th

Hamlin offers several ways to justify the lineup’s largest salary.

He starts 12th, while my model projects him to finish 4.63. Steve lands at 3.85. Both figures suggest substantial finishing points and roughly seven or eight positions of positive differential.

His raw comparable-track results also support scoring at the front. Across 19 races, Hamlin averaged 23.84 fastest laps and 40.84 laps led, with a 9.90 average running position.

Charlotte supplied a strong example this spring. Hamlin finished third, posted a 4.0 average running position, recorded 36 fastest laps and led 75 laps. He spent 370 of his 373 completed laps inside the top 15.

Last weekend’s Vegas spin damaged his splitter and left him 16th. The car had demonstrated speed before the damage, making that finish a poor summary of his afternoon.

We’re paying for another front-running performance, preferably with the splitter remaining attached to the original business plan.

The Queen City turns up the intensity in The Chase. pic.twitter.com/1Wqiuc2dG8

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 6, 2026

Christopher Bell ($10,700) | Starting Position: 17th

Bell starts 17th, which makes his recovery potential especially attractive alongside Hamlin.

My model projects Bell to finish 7.27. Steve is more optimistic at 4.51. Those outcomes would produce approximately 10 to 12 positions of positive differential before counting fastest laps or laps led.

Bell already made this particular climb at Charlotte. He started 17th in the spring, finished second and collected 44 fastest laps while leading 44 laps.

Across the 19 raw comparable races, he averaged 17.58 fastest laps and completed 73.2% of his laps inside the top 15. His Charlotte results include eighth last spring and second this year.

His 23rd-place Vegas finish came after losing power steering. That’s a particularly unfortunate failure in a sport where turning left is most of the assignment.

A functioning steering system and another climb through the field would make $10,700 considerably easier to appreciate.

Ty Gibbs ($9,400) | Starting Position: 14th

Gibbs starts within striking distance of the top 10, with both models expecting him to get there.

From 14th, my projection of 9.76 and Steve’s 7.83 would mean roughly four to six gained positions, plus the points from a top-10 finish.

His spring Charlotte performance was stronger than sixth place alone suggests. Gibbs posted a 4.4 average running position, recorded 30 fastest laps and led 17 laps. Every one of his 373 completed laps came inside the top 15.

The broader comparable-track sample is less impressive, with a 15.02 raw average running position and 7.32 fastest laps per race.

We’re paying for his recent Charlotte ceiling and the models’ top-10 expectations. Another afternoon like the spring race would make $9,400 feel considerably friendlier.

Corey Heim ($8,000) | Starting Position: 37th

Heim starts 37th with two Cup wins already on the board this year.

Those victories came at San Diego and Indianapolis, two very different assignments from Charlotte. They establish his ability to capitalize on an opportunity, while his oval strategy gives us another reason to like the DFS ceiling.

We’ve seen Heim get off sequence with his pit stops and find the front. At Texas, he led 69 laps and recorded 26 fastest laps before finishing 31st. The result was ugly. The scoring opportunities along the way were considerable.

Starting 37th gives him plenty of room to collect points through recovery, too. My model projects him to finish 24.23, while Steve lands at 15.76, creating roughly 13 to 21 positions of potential differential.

Heim already gained 20 positions at Charlotte this spring, starting 39th and finishing 19th while completing all 373 laps.

His raw comparable-track sample is only five races, with a 21.58 average running position. That’s limited evidence, and $8,000 is a real investment. The appeal comes from combining recovery potential with a team willing to try something different on pit road.

If everyone else follows the same strategy, Heim may decide to take the scenic route. We’ve already seen it include a stop at the front.

How will @CLTMotorSpdwy shake up the points standings?

Presented by @mobil1racing. pic.twitter.com/tsz6EwjuoK

— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 10, 2026

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($5,600) | Starting Position: 32nd

Stenhouse’s recent Charlotte results give the bargain tier something encouraging to discuss.

He starts 32nd, exactly where he began this spring before finishing 12th. That recovery produced 20 gained positions, a 13.3 average running position and 274 completed laps inside the top 15.

He also finished 11th here last spring.

The models disagree about how much of that success carries forward. My projection is 29.48, while Steve sees a 21.01 finish. His raw comparable-track average running position is 23.87, sitting between those expectations.

We should resist budgeting for another 12th-place finish. A result in the low 20s would produce useful differential at $5,600, and the local history demonstrates room for more.

For once, we found something in the bargain bin with a decent return policy.

Cole Custer ($5,100) | Starting Position: 30th

Custer arrives with a fresh contract extension and a little less to worry about. Hopefully that good mood survives the first look at Charlotte’s radar.

He starts 30th. My model projects him to finish 30.77, essentially holding his position with a slight backward lean. Steve sees more upside at 23.77.

His broader raw comparable-track numbers explain the hesitation: a 27.35 average running position and just 6.1% of completed laps inside the top 15.

Charlotte has treated him better. Custer gained eight positions to finish 21st last spring, then advanced from 22nd to 16th earlier this season with a 20.0 average running position.

Those results provide a credible path toward outperforming the conservative projection. A finish near Steve’s figure would mean approximately six gained positions and a useful contribution at $5,100.

He’s secured his future. We’d appreciate him spending Sunday improving ours.

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