F1 Singapore Grand Prix Predictions, Best Bets & Race Winner Odds (Oct. 11)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Singapore’s opening lap could do plenty of the handicapping for us.
- One team wager lets the favorite win while we cash the under.
- Read below for F1 Singapore Grand Prix predictions, best bets and race winner odds.
Singapore has spent the weekend reminding us that a Formula 1 car can cost a small fortune and still spend most of the afternoon waiting for the vehicle in front to move.
At least the scenery is expensive.
Saturday’s Sprint delivered rain, nine retirements, George Russell crashing out of the lead and the McLarens colliding on the final lap. Max Verstappen won, with Lewis Hamilton second and Charles Leclerc third.
The entertainment was considerable. Much of it involved somebody having a very bad day.
Verstappen then took pole for Sunday, ahead of Leclerc, Hamilton and Kimi Antonelli. Russell’s power-unit penalty sends him to 21st, while Isack Hadjar starts last after another mechanical problem.
That starting order matters enormously at Marina Bay. Passing is difficult, and an early position gained can become something a driver spends the next hour defending.
The odd-numbered grid slots offer the more favorable side for a dry launch. We’re giving that advantage extra consideration when the model separates two drivers by only a fraction of a position.
Pirelli also expects a one-stop strategy to be the preferred dry-weather option. We should have opportunities through pit timing and tire differences, but expecting everyone to recover through three separate strategy cycles would be generous.
Our spreadsheet can identify speed. Unfortunately, it hasn’t developed the ability to reserve a passing lane.
The Singapore Grand Prix begins Sunday at 8:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV.
F1 Singapore Grand Prix Race Winner Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at Marina Bay. New to the format? Grab the latest Kalshi promo code, or browse other apps like Kalshi before the green flag.
F1 Singapore Grand Prix Predictions & Best Bets
Lewis Hamilton over Charles Leclerc (+120 at DraftKings)
Hamilton gives us a plus-money opportunity between teammates who have been closely matched throughout the weekend.
Our model slightly favors Leclerc, projecting him at 3.0 against Hamilton’s 3.4. We’re siding with Lewis anyway. At +120, there’s enough elsewhere in his weekend to make that small model gap worth challenging.
Leclerc starts second. Hamilton starts third on the more favorable side.
A good launch could put Hamilton ahead before the race settles into the familiar Singapore arrangement of everyone politely following someone they believe is slower.
Saturday demonstrated the value of getting those opening seconds right. Hamilton launched from sixth, advanced rapidly and ultimately finished second, ahead of Leclerc. Hamilton showed enough sustained pace to stay with Verstappen during portions of the Sprint, while Leclerc struggled more as conditions evolved.
The qualifying comparison was much closer. Leclerc beat Hamilton by just 0.069 seconds in Q3 after Hamilton had looked strong earlier in the session.
That gives us a competitive teammate matchup rather than a clear performance mismatch.
At +120, Hamilton needs to finish ahead more than 45.5% of the time to make the wager profitable. His starting-side advantage helps the case, although it doesn’t guarantee he’ll gain a position.
Leclerc can launch well, maintain second and make Hamilton’s life difficult. Pit timing can also rearrange the order, and Ferrari has two competitive cars to manage.
We’re accepting those possibilities in exchange for plus money on a driver who already demonstrated excellent starts and race pace here.
If Lewis gets ahead, we’d appreciate Ferrari allowing the arrangement to continue. There’s no need to turn our modest investment into a customer-service dispute.
Pierre Gasly to Win Group 3 (-130 at Caesars)
Opponents: Liam Lawson, Gabriel Bortoleto, Fernando Alonso
Gasly’s group gives us a straightforward way to back a driver who begins the race in a useful position.
He starts seventh, ahead of Lawson in eighth, Bortoleto in 14th and Alonso in 16th. Gasly also gets the favorable starting side against Lawson, his closest competitor in this group.
Our model projects Gasly and Lawson identically at 8.8. Bortoleto lands at 13.4, with Alonso at 17.1.
That makes Lawson the principal concern. Gasly has a substantial starting-position advantage over the other two, and the model agrees that they’re likely to finish farther back.
The weekend evidence keeps us from dismissing Lawson. He finished fifth in the Sprint, while Gasly finished ninth. Gasly also reported difficulty with power on the straights, which deserves attention before we start treating seventh on the grid like a reserved employee-of-the-month parking space.
Gasly responded with a strong qualifying performance, beating both Racing Bulls drivers. That result puts him in position to defend against Lawson rather than needing to recover past him.
On a track where passing is difficult, the distinction matters.
The -130 price requires a 56.5% hit rate. Our model tie with Lawson doesn’t establish that probability by itself, but Gasly’s head start and favorable launch position strengthen the argument.
Bortoleto and Alonso can still interfere through strategy, attrition or changing conditions. We’re simply asking them to overcome considerably more traffic before their projected performance becomes our problem.
Group betting also gives Gasly some finishing-position flexibility. He can miss the points and still cash if all three opponents finish behind him.
We’d obviously prefer a comfortable points finish. We are, however, prepared to celebrate 11th with a level of enthusiasm Alpine may find confusing.
Red Bull Under 25.5 Race Points (-145 at theScore Bet)
Red Bull will start Sunday with one car on pole and the other at the opposite end of the grid.
That creates an interesting team-points wager.
With full Grand Prix points awarded, a Verstappen victory is worth 25. If Hadjar finishes outside the top 10, Red Bull stays under 25.5 and our ticket cashes.
Max can win the race while we win the under. That should save everyone an unnecessary argument.
Hadjar’s weekend has been miserable. A power-unit problem ended his Sprint, then a gearbox issue prevented him from recording a qualifying time. He starts 22nd at a circuit where track position is especially valuable.
Our model puts Verstappen at 1.9 and Hadjar at 10.2. Hadjar is therefore projected close to the points boundary, which makes the uncertainty important.
If Verstappen wins and Hadjar finishes 10th, their combined 26 points defeat our under. We need Hadjar outside the points in that particular finishing order.
A lower Verstappen finish provides more room. Second for Max and seventh for Hadjar produce 24 points, which cashes.
We’re betting that Red Bull’s two cars struggle to assemble a sufficiently strong combined result. Hadjar has the speed to recover, but first his car needs to cooperate, then he needs to climb into the points through traffic.
Safety cars, retirements and pit strategy can help him. The back-row start alone won’t keep him scoreless.
At -145, the break-even requirement is 59.2%. The combination of reliability concerns, traffic and limited passing opportunities makes this worth playing.
Verstappen has already done almost everything right this weekend. We’re asking him to continue while Hadjar remains occupied elsewhere.
Preferably somewhere that pays zero championship points.
Prefer a traditional book? Compare the best F1 betting apps before lights out in Singapore.
Follow SpeedwaySteve2 on JuiceReel for the complete card. Every wager is synced to the profile as it’s placed.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
