Lightning vs Avalanche Picks, Prediction & Over/Under Odds

• Tampa Bay visits Colorado Friday for a 9 pm ET puck drop at Ball Arena
• The Lightning allow fewer goals and shots per game, but Colorado scores more often and owns the stronger power play
• See my Lightning vs Avalanche picks, prediction and over/under odds for Friday, Oct. 23 below

The Tampa Bay Lightning head to Denver on Friday with a 7-2-0 record. The Colorado Avalanche enter at 5-4-1. Puck drop is set for 6 PM PT / 9 PM ET from Ball Arena. Colorado is the home favorite in the latest NHL odds.

I like the road side in this spot, with the Avs not being as strong as the Bolts this season. My Lightning vs Avalanche picks, prediction and over/under odds breakdown are below.

Lightning vs Avalanche Picks

• Lightning Moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)

My top Lightning vs Avalanche pick is Tampa Bay at plus money. The Bolts have won seven of their first nine games, and their shot suppression gives them a path to another win.

Colorado’s offensive production makes this a tough road assignment. The price still gives me enough room to back Tampa Bay’s stronger defensive numbers. The +105 price implies about a 48.8% chance, and a $10 bet pays $10.50 in profit. I’ll take Tampa Bay’s defensive profile at a slight plus-money number.

Lightning vs Avalanche Prediction

My Lightning vs Avalanche prediction is a TB win, and the case starts in its own end. The Lightning allow 2.33 goals and 24.0 shots per game, both better than Colorado’s 2.80 goals and 27.1 shots against.

Colorado has the edge on offense. The Avs score 4.10 goals per game to Tampa Bay’s 3.44, and their 18.8% power play is well ahead of the Lightning’s 12.9%.

Lightning vs Avalanche Key Stats

Special teams are the biggest risk to this pick. Colorado has the better power play and penalty kill, so Tampa Bay needs to stay out of the box.

Lightning vs Avalanche Over/Under Odds

The Lightning vs Avalanche over/under odds sit at a flat 6 goals at BetMGM. The Over is -118, about a 54.1% implied probability, while the Under is -102, roughly 50.5%.

Because the total is a whole number, a 6-goal game would push and refund your bet. Using each team’s per-game scoring and goals-against averages, Tampa Bay games work out to 5.77 total goals, while Colorado games land at 6.90.

On the moneyline, Colorado is -128, good for a 56.1% implied chance. The Lightning +1.5 puck line costs -227 (69.4%), while the Avalanche -1.5 pays +185 (35.1%).

Odds as of Oct. 22 at BetMGM. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code before betting Friday’s game.

Lightning vs Avalanche Projected Lineups

Lightning vs Avalanche Projected Goalie Stats

Andrei Vasilevskiy is Tampa Bay’s projected starter. He’s 5-2-0 with a 2.46 GAA through seven games.

Scott Wedgewood is projected for Colorado. He has the better save percentage at .912, but it comes in just three appearances.