Parlay These 3 Week 7 NFL Player Props for a Big Potential Payout with Near 18-1 Odds

• Every week in the NFL, we see many players firmly outperform expectations
• Using advanced metrics, you can confidently identify the players positioned to record big games
• See the 3 players I am parlaying to crush expectations for a big potential payout

When it comes to betting player props in the NFL, I am a strong supporter of ensuring you get proper return on investment when you make a good read. I don’t think betting standard over/unders is going to achieve that, though. Instead, I prefer betting larger milestones, or alternate lines, when I have identified a player who is well positioned to outperform expectations. Not only do I bet these milestones as singles, but I also like to take one big cut on parlaying them all together for a nice potential payday.

While many only have the time (or access) to the surface level stats – season averages or how many yards they recorded each game this season etc. – for these players, I like to focus more on the underlying metrics that paint the picture of volume and the quality of opportunities these players are enjoying. In doing so, I have identified three players who I believe are going to smash their standard lines. So, I have bumped them all up to a bigger milestone and parlayed them together for a near 18-1 potential profit.

Longshot NFL Parlay for Week 7

All three of these players are showing strong signs of having big games in Week 7. This is why I am not sticking with their standard NFL player props, as I think they will blow well past them. Instead, I am betting bigger milestones, or what some prefer to call alternate lines.

I like to bet each of these legs as singles as well, but the main purpose here is the three-leg NFL parlay that comes with +1790 odds at bet365.

You’ll find why I like each of these three players to post big performances in Week 7 below.

Carnell Tate 70+ Receiving Yards

• Week 7 Opponent: Cleveland Browns (8th vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 52.5

The first leg of my longshot NFL parlay for Week 7 is Carnell Tate for 70+ receiving yards. The Titans rookie wide receiver is averaging 57.3 receiving yards per game this season, and has achieved 70+ yards in two of six outings. However, the two games where he has hit this milestone have come in the last three weeks, where his quarterback, Cam Ward, has started to look a little more comfortable.

But Tate’s surface-level stats are not why I am betting him to have a big game this weekend. It’s the underlying stats that are grabbing my attention. The most telling of the bunch is that no receiver in the NFL has a larger air yards share than Tate, who is seeing 50.7% of Tennessee’s total air yards. His WOPR is an elite 0.755, which also factors in his strong 26.7% target share, making him a prime candidate to continue seeing positive regression.

While the Browns appear to be good against the pass, allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards per game, they do have some concerning underlying metrics. They have seen opposing offenses attempt 34 deep passes (20+ air yards) against them, which is tied for most in the league, and they rank 21st in opponent average net yards per attempt allowed.

This is a situation of a player with absolute dominance over his team’s air yards taking on the league’s most targeted defense when it comes to deep passes.

Jahmyr Gibbs 110+ Rushing Yards

• Week 7 Opponent: Green Bay Packers (18th vs Run)
• Standard Rushing Line: 93.5

The second leg of my Week 7 NFL player prop parlay is Jahmyr Gibbs to record 110+ rushing yards against the Packers. Surprisingly, Gibbs has only recorded 110+ rushing yards in two of five games – though, his last outing against the Cardinals saw him record 151 yards on the ground. But the data supports him achieving this milestone in Week 7.

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Gibbs checks off a number of boxes I trust when viewing individual performance stats:

• Averages 1.81 yards before contact per carry
• Dominant 83.1% early-down carry share
• 17.1% of rushing attempts go for 10+ yards
• Incredible 30.5% missed tackle forced rate
• Strong 2.99 yards after contact per carry

All of the stats above showcase the strong offensive line Gibbs is running behind, his unquestioned lead-back role, and his elite explosiveness and tackle breaking. Coming out of the bye, I like the Lions to have focused on manufacturing even more quality opportunities for their best offensive weapon, especially on the ground to try and slow the game down to help their leaky defense.

On top of that, his opponent surrenders 3.45 yards after contact per carry, which ranks 28th in the NFL, and they miss tackles at a 15.1% rate.

Matthew Golden 90+ Receiving Yards

• Week 7 Opponent: Detroit Lions (32nd vs Pass)
• Standard Receiving Line: 70.5

The final leg of my player prop NFL parlay is Matthew Golden to record 90+ receiving yards. I am not sure why sportsbooks continue to set Golden’s receiving over/under so low. On the surface, he has recorded 90+ receiving yards in four of six games this season, which includes each of the last two and three of the last four. His underlying metrics look even better than what’s on the surface as well.

Golden has seen 480 air yards go unrealized when targeted, which is the most in the NFL. He has a very strong 40.6% air yards share and 25.8% target share in his offense, which comes out to a WOPR of 0.671. I appreciate that Christian Watson gets his fair share of looks too, but Golden is seeing really valuable opportunities in a Packers offense that has been unable to run the football.

This bet gets even better when considering Golden’s opponent: the Lions. Detroit has allowed the most passing yards per game in the league, and are ninth-worst when it comes to average net yards per passing attempt allowed. Offenses have not been shy in pushing the ball downfield either, as Detroit has faced 26 pass attempts of 20+ air yards, which is eighth-most.

Everything lines up for Golden having a big game against the Lions. So much so that I am surprised his standard receiving line is not nearly 90 yards.

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