College Football Upset Picks Week 9: Saturday Underdogs to Watch

• Week 9 features four games involving ranked teams where the road side is priced as the underdog
• Rushing mismatches, quarterback uncertainty and third-down efficiency shape my Saturday underdogs to watch
• Read below for my college football upset picks and current prices for Oct. 31

For my Week 9 college football upset picks, I am zeroing in on four road underdogs whose prices offer significant value against the rest of the college football odds board.

In the SEC, unranked Auburn visits No. 12 Ole Miss. No. 22 Arizona heads to No. 13 Texas Tech in a ranked Big 12 battle, and No. 25 Wisconsin travels to Iowa with both teams sitting at 5-2. No. 20 Northwestern also heads to Oregon against a Ducks offense changing play-callers.

College Football Upset Picks for Week 9

Each Kalshi Yes price reflects the market’s implied win probability before fees, so Auburn at 21¢ carries a 21% chance, Arizona at 39¢ sits at 39% and Wisconsin at 45¢ checks in at 45%. A winning contract pays $1, while a losing contract loses its purchase price, plus any fees.

The biggest takeaway is the payout spread, which sees Auburn offering the largest return as the longest shot, while Wisconsin is priced closest to a coin flip. If you are shopping these numbers, our guide to the best College Football betting apps breaks down where to play.

CFB Upset Pick #1: Auburn Moneyline vs Ole Miss

Auburn (4-3, 2-3 SEC) visits No. 12 Ole Miss (5-2, 3-2 SEC) at 12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network, and the risk is real. The Tigers are coming off a 38-17 loss to LSU, face a fourth straight ranked opponent and must slow a Rebels passing attack led by Trinidad Chambliss, who has thrown for 1,926 yards and 16 touchdowns.

Still, the rushing matchup flips in Auburn’s favor. After facing LSU’s league-best rush defense last week, the Tigers now draw the SEC’s lowest-rated rush defense. Ole Miss currently sits at 5-2, but its defensive schemes could struggle against sustained rushing attacks if Auburn successfully controls the clock.

Quarterback Byrum Brown is the engine, adding 480 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground with 1,365 passing yards and eight scores. Auburn averages 25.4 points and 376.6 yards per game, and establishing that ground and pound game early will dictate the crucial field position battle.

Auburn has also been turnover-free over its past two games and has already pulled off a road upset at Georgia this season. At 21¢, the market gives the Tigers just a 21% chance of winning in Oxford, a number I think undersells their path to victory.

CFB Upset Pick #2: Arizona Moneyline vs Texas Tech

I am backing Arizona to secure an outright road win against Texas Tech. Both teams enter at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in Big 12 play, with No. 22 Arizona visiting No. 13 Texas Tech at noon ET on ESPN.

Quarterback Noah Fifita has been a reliable leader under center, completing 74.2% of his passes and averaging 310.9 passing yards per game. The Wildcats are also converting a stellar 54.7% of their third downs, which keeps the Red Raiders’ offense waiting on the sideline.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats’ defense has already racked up 23 sacks this season. Arizona has won five straight, including a 39-3 rout of Iowa State last week in which it allowed just 221 total yards and 52 rushing yards.

That relentless pass rush should repeatedly disrupt the Red Raiders’ offensive rhythm. At 39¢, the market implies a 39% chance of an Arizona win, and I rate this matchup much closer to a coin flip.

CFB Upset Pick #3: Wisconsin Moneyline vs Iowa

Wisconsin travels to Iowa City as an appealing road underdog. Both programs sit at 5-2, and the No. 25 Badgers have tightened up defensively, allowing just 44 second-half points all season and only 16 since Week 2.

The Hawkeyes counter with a stout defensive unit that has forced 33 three-and-outs. Iowa has also won four straight in this series by a combined score of 118-26, though that history is context rather than a prediction.

Iowa’s run game remains a threat even without Kamari Moulton, who is out for the season, since three other Hawkeyes have posted 100-yard rushing games. That depth is the biggest risk to this pick.

However, Iowa faces massive uncertainty under center, with the choice between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski still unresolved. Against power conference opponents, Brown has produced 1.11 points per drive and 4.59 yards per play, compared with 3.06 and 6.76 for Hecklinski.

Wisconsin quarterback Colton Joseph provides a steadying dual-threat presence, averaging 179.4 passing and 52.1 rushing yards per game while accounting for 15 touchdowns. At 45¢, the market gives the Badgers a 45% chance, and I like that price against an Iowa offense with no settled quarterback.

CFB Upset Pick #4: Northwestern Moneyline vs Oregon

• Pick: Northwestern Moneyline (+145 at theScore Bet)

My Northwestern vs Oregon upset prediction starts with the Ducks’ struggling offense. Oregon’s 29-3 home record under Dan Lanning commands respect, but I’m not paying for the program’s reputation here. Last week, Oregon jumped out to a 10-0 lead on Illinois, then went silent in a 21-10 loss. The Ducks piled up 426 yards but found the end zone just once and were shut out after halftime.

The bigger problem is who’s running it. Dante Moore has missed three games, and Lanning says he isn’t expected back this season. Oregon then relieved offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer of his duties on Oct. 25, handing play-calling to Jay Johnson. That’s a backup quarterback and a new voice in his ear, all in the same week.

No. 20 Northwestern arrives at 6-1 overall and 3-1 in conference play. At +145, theScore Bet gives the Wildcats a 40.8% implied chance to win. A ranked road team catching a reshuffled offense is closer to a coin flip than that, and I’ll gladly take the plus money.

Prices verified on October 30. Northwestern is quoted at theScore Bet; the other picks use Kalshi contracts.