Canelo vs Mbilli Undercard Picks: Best Bets Include Picasso vs Martin
By Jaren Kawada in Boxing
Published:
- Canelo Alvarez returns against WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli in Riyadh
- WBA super middleweight titleholder Jaime Munguia headlines the undercard against Nikita Zon
- Check out the best analysis, predictions and bets for the top three fights on the Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli undercard below
At long last, Canelo Alvarez is ready to take one more shot at reclaiming gold against WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli in Riyadh. The controversial fight card is set to go down on Halloween with a highly intriguing undercard for fans to digest.
The main card has taken multiple hits since its announcement, with IBF super lightweight No. 1 contender Lindolfo Delgado dropping out of the co-main event title fight. WBA 168-pound titleholder Jaime Munguia also intended to defend his belt against Nikita Zon, but the organization’s refusal to sanction the fight has it trending toward a non-title bout.
With the IBF title fight out of the picture, Munguia and Zon are still slated to lead directly into the highly anticipated main event. With WBO featherweight champion Rafael Espinoza attempting his fifth title defense against Ricardo Blandon earlier in the night, there will still be multiple championship bouts on the night.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli Undercard Odds
Odds as of Oct. 30, 2026 on Kalshi. Check out the best boxing apps in 2026 to place a wager.
The three featured fighters on the undercard — Jaime Munguia, Rafael Espinoza and David Picasso — are all sizeable favorites on the ‘Mexico vs. The World’ showcase. Espinoza is the biggest favorite on the card as a hefty -1567 to retain his title against Ricardo Blandon.
Munguia is the second-biggest favorite on the main card, listed at -900 on Kalshi. He has a 90 percent implied win probability against Zon.
Jaime Munguia vs. Nikita Zon Prediction
Now a two-division world champion, Jaime Munguia looks to be in peak form after recovering from a pair of painful losses to Canelo Alvarez and Bruno Surace in 2024. The 30-year-old has only lost a handful of rounds in his last two fights, showing off his full arsenal and improved championship form.
The southpaw Zon brings a new look that Munguia has not seen too often during his wealth of championship experience. Zon will also be slightly taller than the WBA champion, but every other physical advantage belongs to the Mexican. Munguia tends to be faster than most other super middleweights, and he will be light years quicker with much more power than Zon.
Zon has never previously fought outside of Russia, nor has he ever faced an opponent close to championship level. While Munguia has been going toe-to-toe with the division’s elite in the last five years, Zon has been narrowly out-pointing regional fighters.
Though Munguia has just one knockout in his last five fights, the openings will be there for him all night. His volume and pressure will be too much for Zon to handle.
- Boxing Picks: Jaime Munguia by KO/TKO (-223 on Kalshi)
Rafael Espinoza vs. Ricardo Blandon Best Bet
It has been a while since Rafael Espinoza has been on a major event, and his team is doing its best to make up for lost time. The 6-foot-1 anomaly gets one of his most favorable matchups on paper in his Riyadh Season debut.
Ricardo ‘Big Bam’ Blandon enters his first world title fight on a four-fight win streak to improve his record to 21-6. However, context matters, and Blandon’s opponents have a combined record of 325-247-30. Even worse, the 21 fighters Blandon has beaten have a combined record of 209-222-28.
Whenever Blandon has faced the slightest step up from the bottom of the barrel, he has been thoroughly out-boxed and out-classed. Although stopped just once in his 27-fight career, there could not be a wider gap than going from fighting on the Nicaraguan regional scene to facing the constant pressure of the skyscraping Espinoza.
Blandon has heart but is 0-3 in his career in fights outside of Nicaragua. These two boxers are on entirely different levels that will be immediately evident in the ring.
Without any value on the moneyline, we are going to try to thread the needle and back Espinoza to get the stoppage in rounds five to eight, where two of his last three victories have come.
- Boxing Picks: Rafael Espinoza in Rounds 5-8 (+290 on FanDuel)
David Picasso vs. Carl Martin Prediction
Coming off a tune-up victory, David Picasso looks to embark on another win streak against Carl Martin, the WBO’s super bantamweight No. 1 contender. The fight is expected to be one of the most competitive on the card, but Picasso is still a significant betting favorite.
Despite getting dominated by Naoya Inoue less than a year ago, Picasso is still one of the brightest stars of the smaller weight classes. He remains one of the best defensive fighters in the sport with elite distance management, pinpoint accuracy and a keen ability to land combinations in off-beat moments. It has been nearly impossible for any fighter other than Inoue to remain in rhythm against him.
The southpaw Martin presents a power threat, but his arsenal remains limited. His left hand is a game-changer, but his footwork is a liability, and Martin relies on only a few simple tactics to set up his power combinations. Defense is very much insignificant in his mind.
As the naturally bigger fighter with a sizeable reach advantage, Picasso benefits most from this fight being at 126 pounds. The 26-year-old’s only two competitive fights came against high-IQ fighters who matched his boxing, which Martin will struggle to do.
- Boxing Picks: David Picasso by Decision (+100 on Kalshi)
Jaren Kawada is a combat sports betting analyst for Sports Betting Dime, pairing his working knowledge as a former amateur boxer transitioning to MMA with his decade-long journalism experience. Jaren is also an avid and dedicated NFL, NBA and college sports handicapper.
