5 Key Stats for a CFP National Champion and the 3 Teams That Fit This Season

The college football landscape feels about as wide open as ever this season.

But, based on recent history, there are only three teams that have a shot to win it all when the College Football Playoff begins.

As November began, Georgia, Notre Dame, and UCLA fit the profile of the CFP finalists in the past five years, and they should be where you concentrate your cash if you’re making a national title pick at the best apps to bet on college football or trade on sports with prediction markets like Novig and Polymarket.

Five Key Attributes of CFP National Title Contenders

While there has been quite a range of teams that have advanced to the national championship game in college football over the past five years, there are some shared qualities.

A common statistical profile includes:

• Allowing less than 15 points per game
• Holding a yards-per-play margin of +2 or more
• A net-success rate margin of 13.5% or better
• Disruptive defenses: Maintaining a positive turnover margin and defensive havoc rate of 15-20%
• Having a play-calling identity that leans toward rushing

Statistics were pulled from Sportradar’s Radar360 platform. Every champion over the past five years fits within those ranges, while most finalists do, as well. Obvious outliers in some categories include TCU and Washington.

Teams That Can Win the National Title in 2027

This season’s national title race appears to be as wide open as any we’ve seen since 2007.

Ranked teams are falling left and right, including top 10 teams, as we are fully within a new era of the sport.

But whether it has been under the current 12-team format or the previous four-team playoff, each of the last five years has featured a champion within the above stat profile.

Here are the three teams and how they fit into each category. Two of them come as no surprise, while the other is much more unlikely. There are also some notable omissions, including the No. 1 team in the land entering Week 10.

Georgia Back on Top of Title Chase

Kirby Smart has his Bulldogs back among the national championship favorites. While Georgia never really left that perch, fully, its back-to-back quarterfinal exits have certainly been disappointments.

This year’s team, however, is elite by all the title contender measures.

Georgia has the country’s best yards-per-play margin among Power 4 teams at +3.01, and a 15.8% net success rate.

With an experienced quarterback in Gunner Stockton leading the offense, Georgia is out-scoring opponents by more than 26 points per game, as its defense slides just under the 15 points per game threshold (14.9) through eight games.

The Bulldogs are maintaining a 53.5% rushing rate on offense, which mirrors their 2021 and 2022 title teams.

Kalshi Title Odds: 21%

BetMGM Title Odds: +350

Can Notre Dame End Nearly 40-Year Title Drought?

Nobody will truly believe in Notre Dame until the Fighting Irish put it together in their biggest games (a major chance to do so comes Saturday night against Miami).

But the numbers back the Irish so far this season, and their title odds at prediction markets and sportsbooks agree.

Marcus Freeman’s team is balanced but does lean on its disruptive defense. The Irish have a plus-14 turnover margin through eight games, and a 15.7% defensive havoc rate.

While BYU was able to scheme the Irish into trouble during their lone loss, they are allowing just 13.4 points per game and are allowing 4.31 yards per play, putting their margins at +27 and +2.29.

CJ Carr was the Heisman candidate coming into the season, but the Irish still run the ball 53.6% of the time, with a habit of grinding down lesser opponents late in games.

Kalshi Title Odds: 14%

BetMGM Title Odds: +450

UCLA Defense Leading Surprising Unbeaten Run

The Bruins are the only unbeaten team on this list of potential champions, but are getting the least love from traders and bookmakers.

UCLA has not been traded at higher than 3% on Kalshi (and is now at 2%), and is still paying out at 50-to-1 at traditional sportsbooks.

But the defense has UCLA in the hunt, with a 19% havoc rate and a plus-15 turnover margin. Its defensive YPP is just 4.21, better than both the Bulldogs and Irish, and its allowing 13.4 points per game.

The Bruins are not as efficient offensively as their counterparts, but they are holding their opponents to a 32% success rate, allowing them to get to 13.5% net success.

A major question mark, of course, is quarterback Ty Dieffenbach, who has stepped in for original starter Nico Iamaleava following his season-ending ACL injury. Dieffenbach has been solid for UCLA, which is all that is needed behind that defense and an offense that runs the ball 57.7% of the time.

The defense has yet to garner 2023 Michigan levels of praise or comparison, but that team does appear to be the most favorable comparison for this year’s Bruins.

Kalshi Title Odds: 2%

BetMGM Title Odds: +5000

Two Teams That Almost Fit the Full Profile

The nation’s top-ranked team Miami and the defending national champion Indiana nearly fit the profile, but fall just short on opposite sides of the field.

Miami’s defensive scoring average is above 15 (17.8), while Indiana’s offense fails it and drops its net success rate below 13.5% (12.2%).

The Hurricanes have an elite offense behind quarterback Darian Mensah and receiver Malachi Toney. They carry a scoring margin of nearly 30 points per game thanks to a 47.6 ppg average. They also has a +2.61 YPP average, and 13.9% net success rate.

Their defense is not creating nearly as much havoc as its counterparts, however, at just 12.7%. This is allowing offenses to operate with more comfort.

Still, Miami is trading at 16% on Kalshi, which is second nationally behind Georgia.

Indiana is trading at 9% on Kalshi, which is tied for fourth, thanks to a lights-out defense. The Hoosiers are allowing just 12.4 points per game, have a YPP edge of +2.84 thanks to allowing just 4.08, and a defensive havoc rate of 18.2%.

The offense, however, is simply not scoring and that is allowing lesser teams – like Michigan and Minnesota in the past two weeks – to hang around. Quarterback Josh Hoover has been inconsistent and banged up, leaving the offense inefficient. Their net success rate is so low despite a defensive success rate allowed of 31.1%.

What Happened to Ohio State?

The Buckeyes were one of the teams to fit this profile just a couple weeks ago, but Julian Sayin’s season-ending injury, and a rough performance on the road against USC knocked the preseason favorites from the list.

Can Ohio State still rally and win it all? Sure. They do have the nation’s most dynamic player in Jeremiah Smith, and a full host of playmakers on defense.

But having two losses at this point in the season will make even getting into the field difficult, and early signs from the offense against a mediocre USC defense aren’t good.

OSU’s net success rate is down to 12.6%, below the championship threshold, while its points per game allowed are at 15.5, which is slightly above.

It’s title odds on Kalshi are down to 5%, a full 12% drop from its high of 17% earlier in the season.