New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Mountain West Picks (Nov. 6)
By Ryan Potts in College Football
Published:
- No. 22 (AP) New Mexico brings a punishing ground game and ball-hawking defense to Reno
- Nevada returns home after a 27-0 loss to UCLA
- Read below for my New Mexico vs Nevada prediction and top Mountain West pick
On Friday, Nov. 6, the No. 22 New Mexico Lobos (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) visit the Nevada Wolf Pack (3-5, 2-2) at Mackay Stadium. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET (6 p.m. in Reno) on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico is coming off a gritty 21-16 win over San Jose State. Ranked No. 22 in the AP Top 25 and No. 25 in the coaches poll, the Lobos have built their season in the trenches. New Mexico is the second favorite among Group of Six teams to make the CFP behind Boise State.
Nevada is looking to bounce back from a 27-0 shutout loss to UCLA. This sets up as a classic spot for an upset-minded home underdog to play spoiler against a ranked opponent, but the turnover numbers point the other way.
New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction
- Forecast: New Mexico controls the clock on the ground and wins the turnover battle on the road.
My New Mexico vs Nevada prediction starts with a defense allowing 11.9 points, 258.1 total yards and just 81.6 rushing yards per game. The Lobos lead the FBS in scoring defense, and they have yet to allow a team to score even 20 points. Their lone loss (at then-No. 24 Oklahoma) was a 14-6 offensive slog.
Opponents have struggled to run against New Mexico, and its pass defense has collected 17 interceptions. Add eight fumble recoveries, and the Lobos have 25 takeaways in eight games. This elite defense is the backbone of the Lobos’ inaugural ranking in the AP Poll. The Lobos are not ranked in the first run of the CFP rankings, though.
The offense does its part, too. New Mexico scores 35 points per game and runs for 213.1 yards per contest. Scottre Humphrey leads the way with 540 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kiefer Sibley adds 485 yards and three scores.
New Mexico vs Nevada Team Stats
The biggest gap is ball security. New Mexico has given the ball away just eight times while taking it away 25 times. Nevada has 16 giveaways (12 interceptions, four fumbles lost) against only three takeaways.
To be fair, Nevada is giving up just 156.9 passing yards per game and holding opponents to a 30.3% third-down conversion rate. The Wolf Pack know how to get off the field. However, the unmitigated turnover disaster leaves Nevada’s offense in poor field position while exposing the Nevada defense when the opponent has ideal field position. Nevada is 104th in the country in scoring and 56th in scoring defense.
Compare Nevada’s -13 turnover differential to New Mexico’s +17 mark, though, and you see the problem. The Lobos won’t need to force passing concepts into the teeth of Nevada’s secondary when they can grind out yards on the ground.
New Mexico vs Nevada Odds
Kalshi prices as of Nov. 6 Compare sportsbook lines with our College Football betting apps.
The New Mexico vs Nevada odds on Kalshi make the Lobos a clear favorite, with their moneyline at 78¢. That price leaves little room for value on a straight-up winner.
The spread is the more interesting market. A 53¢ contract on New Mexico -9.5 pays $1 if the Lobos cover, which is roughly -113 in sportsbook terms. The total of 38.5 is close to a coin flip, with the Over at 49¢ and the Under at 52¢.
New Mexico vs Nevada Mountain West Picks
- Pick: New Mexico -9.5
New Mexico to cover the spread is my priority play in this New Mexico vs Nevada matchup. I’d rather pay 53¢ for the -9.5 than lay 78¢ on the moneyline.
Nevada has forced just three turnovers in eight games. Sustaining drives against this New Mexico defense will be difficult without help from short fields. One saving grace is Ky Woods, who leads the Mountain West with 32.3 yards per kick return. A field-flipping return would do a lot of good for the Wolf Pack offense.
I am entirely backing New Mexico’s defense. I expect a low-scoring slog with lots of punts from Nevada’s Ewan Baulch. I lean toward the under as well in a New Mexico 27, Nevada 10 game.
The risk is Nevada’s red zone offense, which has scored on 22 of 25 trips with 14 touchdowns. If the Wolf Pack finish drives, a late score could keep this inside the number.
Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, combine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
