England vs Croatia Picks, Goalscorer Bets & Odds (Nov 12)
By Miguel Alvim in Soccer News
Published:
- England vs Croatia odds favor England, with the Three Lions averaging 3.5 goals per match
- Croatia concedes 3.5 goals per game, supporting the Over 3.5 goals pick (+127)
- Harry Kane anytime goalscorer odds (-110) offer another betting angle for November 12
The UEFA Nations League features a significant statistical mismatch as heavy home favorite England (3-0-1, 9 points, +11 GD) hosts underdog Croatia (1-0-3, 3 points, -10 GD) at Wembley Stadium in London. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET on November 12, 2026. England dominated the previous meeting, earning a 7-0 victory over Croatia on Oct. 3.
Croatia has struggled to find defensive stability throughout the campaign, leaving the visitors vulnerable to another heavy defeat.
England vs Croatia Odds
Consensus sportsbook odds. Use SBD’s Kalshi odds converter to see how implied probabilities translate into traditional odds.
Consensus odds make England a heavy -422 moneyline favorite. These prices can be converted into implied probabilities to calculate the market’s vig-free expectations. England’s -422 moneyline implies an 80.84% win probability, while Croatia’s +940 price implies a 9.62% chance of victory. The +525 draw price represents a 16.00% probability.
Together, these implied probabilities add up to 106.46%, indicating a 6.46% overround. After removing the bookmaker’s margin, the adjusted probabilities are 75.93% for England, 15.03% for a draw, and 9.04% for Croatia.
A $20 moneyline wager further illustrates the difference in market expectations. A winning $20 bet on England at -422 would generate just $4.74 in profit, for a total payout of $24.74. Meanwhile, a $20 wager on Croatia at +940 would return $188 in profit, bringing the total payout to $208.
The opening moneyline had England at -599, Croatia at +1100, and the draw at +600. Since then, England’s odds have lengthened to -422, while Croatia’s and the draw’s odds have shortened to +940 and +525, respectively.
The total goals line opened at 3.5, with the Over at +118 and the Under at -150. The Over price has since lengthened to +122 at standard sportsbooks, while the Under has shortened to -158. The handicap line also moved, with the opening price of -160 shifting to -149.
England vs Croatia Picks & Predictions
Handicap Pick: England -1.5 (-138 / 58% at Kalshi)
Backing England -1.5 at 58% on Kalshi offers potential value, as the implied probability corresponds to approximately -138 American odds. England has also covered the -1.5 handicap in its last two meetings with Croatia, providing additional historical support for this pick.
England’s attacking strength provides another reason to back the handicap. The Three Lions average 60.0% possession and face a Croatia defense that concedes 3.5 goals per game. With England generating 14.5 shots per match, the hosts have the attacking firepower to win by multiple goals.
Total-Goals Pick: Over 3.5 Total Goals (+127 / 44% at Kalshi)
Backing Over 3.5 goals at 44% on Kalshi offers an attractive price, corresponding to approximately +127 American odds. The statistics also point toward a high-scoring matchup. England and Croatia combined for six and seven goals in their last two meetings, with both games comfortably clearing the Over 3.5 line.
Croatia has conceded 14 goals in just four matches during this Nations League campaign. Even if the visitors struggle to score, England has enough attacking firepower to clear the total on its own, as demonstrated by its 7-0 victory in October.
Anytime Goalscorer Pick: Harry Kane (-110 at theScore Bet)
Harry Kane is an appealing anytime goalscorer option based on his production this season. He is averaging 1.50 goals and 1.75 shots on target per game through his first four appearances.
The matchup also favors the England striker. Croatia has conceded 3.5 goals per game during the Nations League campaign, highlighting its defensive struggles. Given Kane’s scoring rate and the visitors’ defensive record, he is a strong candidate to find the net against Croatia.
England vs Croatia Team Stats
The numbers highlight the significant gap between these two teams. England boasts the competition’s most productive attack, averaging 3.5 goals per game. The Three Lions also control possession, averaging 60.0%, while generating 14.5 shots and nearly six shots on target per match.
Croatia, meanwhile, has struggled defensively, conceding 3.5 goals per game, the second-worst average among the competition’s 54 teams. This contrast between England’s attacking strength and Croatia’s defensive struggles provides a compelling case for the betting markets, particularly the handicap and Over 3.5 goals.
Recent H2H History: England vs Croatia
England has won all three of its last meetings with Croatia, outscoring its opponent 12–2. The Three Lions have also controlled possession in these matchups, averaging 54.67% possession and 14.67 shots per game.
With more than a decade of experience as a writer, editor, and content manager, Miguel has built a career creating engaging sports content for international audiences. He is multilingual journalist with a strong passion for numerous sports, especially soccer.
