Memphis vs South Florida Prediction, Spread & Thursday CFB Picks (Nov. 12)

• South Florida hosts Memphis in AAC play tonight
• Memphis brings a 513.4-yard-per-game offense into this contest
• Check out my Memphis vs South Florida prediction, spread and Thursday CFB picks, below

The Memphis Tigers visit the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa tonight, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Memphis enters at 7-2 and is the clear road favorite in the college football odds.

South Florida sits at 6-3 and has gone 4-1 at home. The Bulls will look to use that home edge, along with strong ball security, to slow a Memphis attack that has piled up points all season.

Below, I break down the stats, the key prices on Kalshi, and where I see value before kickoff. Keep reading for my Memphis vs South Florida prediction, spread and Thursday CFB picks for Nov. 12, below.

Memphis vs South Florida Prediction

• Prediction: Memphis wins by more than a field goal in a game that clears 47.5 points

Memphis averages 37.6 points per game to South Florida’s 25.9, a gap of nearly 12 points. The Tigers move the ball with balance, posting 290.6 passing yards and 222.8 rushing yards per game.

Quarterback Marcus Stokes has completed 179 of 259 passes for 2,532 yards, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. Running back Jaylin Carter leads the ground game with 929 yards and 10 touchdowns on 151 carries.

Memphis also converts 46.4% of its third downs, compared to 37.3% for South Florida. That kind of sustained pressure tends to wear a defense down late, especially against a Bulls offense managing 316.2 yards per game.

South Florida counters with situational football and a +4 turnover ratio. Michael Van Buren Jr. has handled most of the passing work, going 116 of 181 for 1,273 yards and six touchdowns.

In the backfield, D.J. Crowther has 689 yards and seven scores. His ability to grind out tough carries and chew clock could keep the Memphis playmakers on the sideline.

Memphis vs. South Florida Spread

Kalshi has posted actionable contracts for this Thursday clash. The prices below reflect what one Yes or No share costs in cents.

Odds from Kalshi as of Nov. 12, 2026 at 05:32 UTC.

The 62¢ Yes price on the Memphis moneyline makes the Tigers a firm, but not overwhelming, favorite. Backing them outright means risking 62¢ to net 38¢ per contract.

The alternate spread offers a cheaper entry. Memphis to win by over 3.5 points costs 52¢, close to a coin flip for a field-goal-plus margin. On the total, prices even out near 50.5 points at 51¢. Compare these contracts against other prediction market apps.

Memphis vs. South Florida Thursday CFB Picks

Pick 1: Memphis Wins by Over 3.5 Points

Kalshi has Memphis at 62% Yes to win outright, a sound position given its statistical edges. Bettors looking for more leverage should target the alternate spread, where Memphis to win by over 3.5 points sits at 52% Yes.

Memphis outscores South Florida by nearly 12 points per game and outgains the Bulls by almost 200 yards per game. South Florida’s ball security keeps it competitive, but a 52¢ price on Memphis covering a field-goal margin represents clear value. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code before kickoff and get a bonus to use on tonight’s game.

Pick 2: Over 47.5 Points

Kalshi prices Over 47.5 points at 58% Yes, which is where you want to be if you expect a shootout. Memphis supplies most of the volume, but South Florida brings a valuable trait of its own: a 96.4% red-zone efficiency rate.

When the Bulls cross the 20-yard line, they almost always come away with points. Pair that with a Memphis offense converting 84.1% of its red-zone trips, and the script points to plenty of scoring.

If both programs finish drives at their usual rates, 47.5 points is a very reachable number. Find a platform for these markets in our guide to the best college football betting apps.