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2026 Oscars Odds: One Battle After Another Leads Best Picture Race
By Kevin Wolff
Updated:
- See the latest betting odds for all major awards at the 2026 Oscars
- One Battle After Another dominates as the Best Picture favorite, with Sinners and Hamnet chasing
- Learn trends from past Academy Awards to predict the 2026 Oscar winners
The race for the 98th Academy Awards is heating up, and prediction markets have all the 2026 Oscars odds. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear Best Picture favorite after dominating the festival circuit, while Timothée Chalamet and Jessie Buckley are favored to win Best Actor and Actress honors.
The Kalshi prediction market tracks real-time Oscars odds leading up to the March 15th, 2026, ceremony. Superstars like Leonardo DiCaprio will be on hand as he seeks his second Oscar, while director Paul Thomas Anderson looks to finally win an Academy Award after 11 previous nominations.
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2026 Oscars Odds – Best Picture
Kalshi
One Battle After Another
89%
Sinners
8%
Hamnet
3%
Sentimental Value
1%
Wicked: For Good
1%
Marty Supreme
1%
Bugonia
1%
It Was Just an Accident
1%
No Other Choice
1%
F1
1%
Implied probabilities from Kalshi prediction market as of February 28th, 2026. Bet on these markets with the Kalshi referral code to get a $10 Sign Up Bonus when you complete $10 in trades. Kalshi is currently unavailable in Illinois, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, and Ohio.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear frontrunner at 77% odds. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed-up revolutionary and could finally deliver Anderson his first Oscar after 11 previous nominations.
Hamnet sits second after winning TIFF’s People’s Choice Award on September 14, 2025, a historically strong Best Picture predictor. Sinners rounds out the top three despite Ryan Coogler’s genre film facing typical Academy resistance to horror.
Past Best Picture Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Anora |
| 2024 | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | CODA |
| 2021 | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Parasite |
| 2019 | Green Book |
| 2018 | The Shape of Water |
| 2017 | Moonlight |
2026 Oscars Odds – Best Actor
Kalshi
Timothee Chalamet
67%
Leonardo DiCaprio
12%
Michael B. Jordan
11%
Ethan Hawke
9%
Wagner Moura
4%
Jeremy Allen White
1%
Dwayne Johnson
1%
Daniel Day-Lewis
1%
Timothée Chalamet leads the Oscar’s Best Actor race at 72% (-257) for his role as table tennis player Marty Mauser in Marty Supreme. Leonardo DiCaprio holds the second-best odds at 10% (+900) following his role as a washed-up revolutionary in One Battle After Another. This would be DiCaprio’s second Oscar after winning for The Revenant. Michael B. Jordan sits at 8% (+1150) after starring in Sinners.
Past Best Actor Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Adrien Brody | The Brutalist |
| 2024 | Cillian Murphy | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Brendan Fraser | The Whale |
| 2022 | Will Smith | King Richard |
| 2021 | Anthony Hopkins | The Father |
| 2020 | Joaquin Phoenix | Joker |
| 2019 | Rami Malek | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| 2018 | Gary Oldman | Darkest Hour |
| 2017 | Casey Affleck | Manchester by the Sea |
2026 Oscars Odds – Best Actress
Jessie Buckley dominates the Best Actress race at 91% (-1011) for her role as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet.
Rose Byrne trails at 6% (+1567) following her role in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Emma Stone holds 3% odds after starring in Bugonia.
Past Best Actress Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mikey Madison | Anora |
| 2024 | Emma Stone | Poor Things |
| 2023 | Michelle Yeoh | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Jessica Chastain | The Eyes of Tammy Faye |
| 2021 | Frances McDormand | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Renée Zellweger | Judy |
| 2019 | Olivia Colman | The Favourite |
| 2018 | Frances McDormand | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| 2017 | Emma Stone | La La Land |
2026 Oscars Odds – Best Director
Kalshi
Paul Thomas Anderson
91%
Ryan Coogler
8%
Chloe Zhao
2%
Joachim Trier
1%
Josh Safdie
1%
Paul Thomas Anderson leads the Best Director race at 92% (-1150) odds for One Battle After Another. After 11 previous nominations without a win, this could finally be his year.
After initially appearing as a true contender in the prediction markets, Joachim Trier has fallen to 1% for his role directing Sentimental Value, which won the Cannes Grand Prix on May 24. Ryan Coogler holds a 7% chance (+1329 odds) while Chloé Zhao has 2% (+4900) odds following strong TIFF showings.
Past Best Director Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sean Baker | Anora |
| 2024 | Christopher Nolan | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Jane Campion | The Power of the Dog |
| 2021 | Chloé Zhao | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Bong Joon-ho | Parasite |
| 2019 | Alfonso Cuarón | Roma |
| 2018 | Guillermo del Toro | The Shape of Water |
| 2017 | Damien Chazelle | La La Land |
2026 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actor
Kalshi
Sean Penn
53%
Stellan Skarsgard
27%
Benicio del Toro
9%
Delroy Lindo
8%
Jacob Elordi
5%
Sean Penn is the current favorite to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor after his role in One Battle After Another at 54% (-117). Behind him in the prediction markets at 27% (+270) is Stellan Skarsgard, who featured in Sentimental Value, and Benicio del Toro at 7% (+1329), who also featured in One Battle After Another.
Past Best Supporting Actor Winners
2026 Oscars Odds – Best Supporting Actress
Kalshi
Teyana Taylor
46%
Amy Madigan
29%
Wunmi Mosaku
20%
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
3%
Elle Fanning
2%
Prediction markets show Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another with a 52% probability (-108 odds) to win the 2026 Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. Behind her in the odds are Wunmi Mosaku at 24% (+317 odds) for her role in Sinners, as well as Amy Madigan at 19% (+426 odds) for her supporting role in Weapons.
Past Best Supporting Actress Winners
2026 Oscars Odds FAQ
When are the Oscars 2026?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 15th, 2026 at 7pm EST.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles.
How to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The Oscars ceremony will be televised live on ABC and streamed online at ABC.com and the ABC app. A cable subscription or login is required for the digital streams.
Who won Best Picture at last year's Oscars?
Anora took home Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Where can I bet on the Oscars in 2026?
The Kalshi prediction market provides realtime Oscars odds across the major categories leading up to the 2026 Academy Awards.
Archived Academy Awards odds:
After years of writing as well as Data Analyst work for Pro Football Focus, Kevin Wolff is now a Sports Betting Writer for SportRadar, and more specifically, SBD. A graduate of Fordham University in NYC, Kevin is also a full-time dog dad when he's not writing.
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