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2026 Oscar Odds: One Battle After Another Leads Best Picture Race
Updated:
- See the latest betting odds for all major awards at the 2026 Oscars
- One Battle After Another dominates as the Best Picture favorite, with Hamnet and Sinners chasing
- Learn trends from past Academy Awards to predict the 2026 Oscar winners
The race for the 98th Academy Awards is heating up. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear Best Picture favorite after dominating the festival circuit.
The Kalshi prediction market tracks real-time odds leading up to the March 15th, 2026 ceremony. Leonardo DiCaprio seeks his second Oscar while director Paul Thomas Anderson looks to finally win after 11 previous nominations.
The tables below show current odds for the major categories at the 2026 Oscars. Find notes on odds movement and key storylines for each race.
2026 Oscars – Best Picture Odds
| Best Picture Contender | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| One Battle After Another | -203 | 67% |
| Hamnet | +355 | 22% |
| Sinners | +1011 | 9% |
| Sentimental Value | +1900 | 5% |
| Bugonia | +4900 | 2% |
| Jay Kelly | +9900 | 1% |
| Marty Supreme | +9900 | <1% |
| No Other Choice | +9900 | <1% |
| Wicked: For Good | +9900 | <1% |
Implied probabilities from Kalshi prediction market as of September 29th, 2025. Bet on these markets with the Kalshi promo code. Kalshi is currently unavailable in Illinois, Maryland, Montana, New Jersey, and Ohio.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has emerged as the clear frontrunner at 67% odds. The film stars Leonardo DiCaprio as a washed-up revolutionary and could finally deliver Anderson his first Oscar after 11 previous nominations.
Hamnet sits second after winning TIFF’s People’s Choice Award on September 14, a historically strong Best Picture predictor. Sinners rounds out the top three despite Ryan Coogler’s genre film facing typical Academy resistance to horror.
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Past Best Picture Winners
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2025 | Anora |
| 2024 | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | CODA |
| 2021 | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Parasite |
| 2019 | Green Book |
| 2018 | The Shape of Water |
| 2017 | Moonlight |
2026 Oscars – Best Actor Odds
| Best Actor Contender | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another | -108 | 52% |
| Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme | +270 | 27% |
| Paul Mescal – Hamnet | +669 | 13% |
| Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me from Nowhere | +1011 | 9% |
| Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine | +1329 | 7% |
| Jesse Plemons – Bugonia | +1567 | 6% |
| Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone | +9900 | <1% |
Leonardo DiCaprio leads the Best Actor race at 52% for his role as a washed-up revolutionary in One Battle After Another. This would be DiCaprio’s second Oscar after winning for The Revenant.
Timothée Chalamet follows at 27% for Josh Safdie’s ping-pong drama Marty Supreme, while Paul Mescal holds 13% for the Shakespeare family drama Hamnet.
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Past Best Actor Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Adrien Brody | The Brutalist |
| 2024 | Cillian Murphy | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Brendan Fraser | The Whale |
| 2022 | Will Smith | King Richard |
| 2021 | Anthony Hopkins | The Father |
| 2020 | Joaquin Phoenix | Joker |
| 2019 | Rami Malek | Bohemian Rhapsody |
| 2018 | Gary Oldman | Darkest Hour |
| 2017 | Casey Affleck | Manchester by the Sea |
2026 Oscars – Best Actress Odds
| Best Actress Contender | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jessie Buckley – Hamnet | -355 | 78% |
| Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value | +355 | 22% |
| Cynthia Erivo – Wicked: For Good | +376 | 21% |
| Emma Stone – Bugonia | +1150 | 8% |
| Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue | +9900 | <1% |
Jessie Buckley dominates the Best Actress race at 78% for her role as Agnes Shakespeare in Hamnet.
Renate Reinsve trails at 22% following Sentimental Value‘s Cannes Grand Prix win on May 24. Cynthia Erivo holds 21% odds for the musical sequel Wicked: For Good.
Past Best Actress Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Mikey Madison | Anora |
| 2024 | Emma Stone | Poor Things |
| 2023 | Michelle Yeoh | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Jessica Chastain | The Eyes of Tammy Faye |
| 2021 | Frances McDormand | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Renée Zellweger | Judy |
| 2019 | Olivia Colman | The Favourite |
| 2018 | Frances McDormand | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
| 2017 | Emma Stone | La La Land |
2026 Oscars – Best Director Odds
| Best Director Contender | American Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another | -300 | 75% |
| Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value | +203 | 33% |
| Chloé Zhao – Hamnet | +669 | 13% |
| Ryan Coogler – Sinners | +669 | 13% |
| Kathryn Bigelow – House of Dynamite | +2400 | 4% |
| Jafar Panahi – It Was Just an Accident | +3233 | 3% |
Paul Thomas Anderson leads the Best Director race at 75% odds for One Battle After Another. After 11 previous nominations without a win, this could finally be his year.
Joachim Trier sits at 33% after Sentimental Value won the Cannes Grand Prix on May 24. Chloé Zhao and Ryan Coogler both hold 13% odds following strong TIFF showings.
Past Best Director Winners
| Year | Winner | Film |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sean Baker | Anora |
| 2024 | Christopher Nolan | Oppenheimer |
| 2023 | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
| 2022 | Jane Campion | The Power of the Dog |
| 2021 | Chloé Zhao | Nomadland |
| 2020 | Bong Joon-ho | Parasite |
| 2019 | Alfonso Cuarón | Roma |
| 2018 | Guillermo del Toro | The Shape of Water |
| 2017 | Damien Chazelle | La La Land |
Academy Awards FAQ
When are the Oscars 2026?
The 2026 Oscars (98th Academy Awards) are scheduled for March 15th, 2026 at 7pm EST.
Where are the 2026 Oscars held?
The 2026 Oscars will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles.
How to watch the 2026 Oscars?
The Oscars ceremony will be televised live on ABC and streamed online at ABC.com and the ABC app. A cable subscription or login is required for the digital streams.
Who won Best Picture at last year's Oscars?
Anora took home Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Where can I bet on the Oscars in 2026?
The Kalshi prediction market provides realtime Oscars odds across the major categories leading up to the 2026 Academy Awards.
Archived Academy Awards odds:
Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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