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15 Crazy Super Bowl Betting Trends

Updated March 5th, 2021
Published February 10, 2020

Before you make your final decision on betting either the Kansas City Chiefs or Tampa Bay Buccaneers for Super Bowl 55, you’ll want to know these 15 mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl betting trends.

1) Lucky White Jerseys

The only three teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 16 years without wearing their white jerseys were the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45, Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52, and Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54.

As the home team this year – the NFL rotates home and away between the AFC and NFC each season – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got to choose which color jersey they wear. They announced on Wednesday night (January 27) that they will wear their white jerseys, getting on the right side of this trend.

2) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing

*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52; this is why there is a missing win/loss.

The 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only two teams in the last 14 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.

The Chiefs had the worse record in their matchup with the 49ers last year and won, but they finished the 2020 regular season with a better record than the Bucs. Kansas City was 14-2 while Tampa Bay was 11-5.

3) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage

Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. Entering Super Bowl 55, favorites are 36-18 in the big game.

The Chiefs added to this trend last year when they beat the 49ers as 1.5-point favorites. They are again favored this year against the Buccaneers.

This trend has recently reversed, though …

4) Underdogs Have the Edge Recently

The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams who have won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last nine years – New England did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.

KC will have an opportunity to add a second win as the favorite to their resume this year.

5) Favorites Love Florida

Florida has hosted the Super Bowl 16 times before, with 11 of those instances being in Miami, four in Tampa Bay, and one in Jacksonville.

In those 16 games, underdogs have only won four of them:

  • Super Bowl 44: Saints beat the Colts as 5-point dogs
  • Super Bowl 25: Giants beat the Bills as 7-point dogs
  • Super Bowl 18: Raiders beat Washington as 3-point dogs
  • Super Bowl 3: Jets beat Colts as 18-point dogs

Florida served as the host last year, when Kansas City beat San Francisco as the favorite in Miami. The last time Tampa Bay hosted was Super Bowl 43 between the Steelers and Cardinals. Pittsburgh served as the favorite and won the game.

6) AFC Wins on CBS

Super Bowl 55 will be broadcast by CBS, the second time CBS has broadcast the game in the last three years. Here are the last seven Super Bowls broadcast by CBS:

  • Super Bowl 53: the Patriots beat the Rams
  • Super Bowl 50: the Broncos beat the Panthers
  • Super Bowl 47: the Ravens beat the 49ers
  • Super Bowl 44: the Saints beat the Colts
  • Super Bowl 41: the Colts beat the Bears
  • Super Bowl 38: the Patriots beat the Panthers
  • Super Bowl 35: the Ravens beat the Giants

The Saints are the only NFC team to win on CBS since Washington beat Buffalo back in 1992. However, CBS did not broadcast a Super Bowl from 1993-2000.

7) AFC Loves the Sun

The Super Bowl was played in Florida last year, when the Chiefs made it 11 wins for the AFC in the last 16 games played in the sunshine state. The next most-recent Florida Super Bowl was in 2010, where the Saints picked up a win for the NFC.

But beyond that, you’d have to go back to 1995 to find the last time the NFC won a Super Bowl in Florida, as the AFC reeled off five straight wins.

Florida is preparing to host the Super Bowl again in 2021.

8) Who Needs Experience?

So much for experience matters, right? The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has gone on to win nine of the last 14 Super Bowls.

Thanks to being the reigning champions, the Chiefs hold the advantage when it comes to Super Bowl-experienced players. While they have had some roster turnover, the majority of their roster is back to defend.

The only players who have Super Bowl experience on the Buccaneers’ roster are those who received it playing elsewhere. This list includes:

  • Tom Brady (I think he’s played in a few …)
  • Rob Gronkowski
  • Ndamukong Suh
  • Jason Pierre-Paul
  • Shaquil Barrett

But with Brady making it to his tenth Super Bowl, I don’t think many will be looking at the Bucs as being inexperienced.

9) Good Old February

Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.

The AFC hopes the game remains in February moving forward, as they are 12-6 in Super Bowls played in the month of February.

Super Bowl 55 will take place February 7th.

10) AFC West Means Upset

Underdogs have won the recent Super Bowls that feature a team from the AFC West – Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, or Los Angeles Chargers.

Here’s a look at the last six Super Bowls that have included a team from the AFC West:

  • Super Bowl 54 (Chiefs beat 49ers as 1.5-point favorites)
  • Super Bowl 50 (Broncos beat Panthers as 4.5-point dog)
  • Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks beat Broncos as 2-point dogs)
  • Super Bowl 37 (Bucs beat Raiders as 4-point dogs)
  • Super Bowl 33 (Broncos beat Falcons as 7.5-point favorites)
  • Super Bowl 32 (Broncos beat Packers as 11-point dogs)

The Chiefs overcame this trend last year against the 49ers, winning as a favorite in a Super Bowl that included an AFC West team. They are again the favorites in Super Bowl 55 against the Bucs.

11) Losers Get Redemption

Since each team only plays four teams from the opposite conference each regular season under the new scheduling format, we don’t see this trend come up often. But when the two Super Bowl teams have met in the regular season, the team who lost the regular season game has gone on to win the Super Bowl in five of the last seven occurrences.

Here’s a look at those last seven instances:

  1. Super Bowl 46 – the Giants won both the regular season matchup and Super Bowl against the Patriots
  2. Super Bowl 42 – the Patriots beat the Giants in the regular season, but the Giants got revenge in the Super Bowl
  3. Super Bowl 36 – the Rams beat the Patriots in the regular season, but the Patriots shut down the Greatest Show on Turf in the Super Bowl, picking up the huge upset
  4. Super Bowl 34 – the Titans won the regular season matchup, but the Rams beat them in the Super Bowl
  5. Super Bowl 29 – the 49ers won both the regular season matchup and Super Bowl against the Chargers
  6. Super Bowl 28 – the Bills won the regular season matchup, but lost the Super Bowl to the Cowboys
  7. Super Bowl 25 – the Bills won the regular season matchup, but the Giants beat them when they met again in the Super Bowl

The Chiefs and Buccaneers met in Week 12 of the 2020 regular season, with Kansas City winning 27-24.

12) Is the AFC the Stronger Conference?

The only NFC teams to win a Super Bowl in the last eight years are the Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48, and the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the New England Patriots.

The reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs come from the AFC and will look to notch another win for the conference in Super Bowl 55.

The Falcons, Panthers, 49ers (twice), Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams in this timeframe.

13) AFC Believes Football Should Be Played Outdoors

Looking to the last 11 Super Bowls that were played outdoors, the NFC has only won these three: Super Bowl 48 (Seahawks) in New Jersey, Super Bowl 44 (Saints) in Miami, and Super Bowl 37 (Buccaneers) in San Diego.

Tampa Bay’s Raymond James Stadium, where Super Bowl 55 will be played, is an outdoor venue.

14) Male-Led Halftime Show = Upset

The last five Super Bowls to feature a male-led halftime show were:

  • Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5) – the Patriots beat the Rams as favorites
  • Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake) – the Eagles upset the Patriots
  • Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay) – the Broncos upset the Panthers
  • Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars) – the Seahawks upset the Broncos
  • Super Bowl 44 (The Who) – the Saints upset the Colts

As you see, underdogs won four of those five games, with the Patriots serving as the only favorite to win. The Chiefs are currently 3-point favorites over the Bucs.

15) Repeat Champions

There are only seven teams who have won consecutive Super Bowl titles, with the Steelers accomplishing the feat twice. But others have had the opportunity to repeat, but fell short in the championship game. Here’s a look at the 13 times where Super Bowl champions made it back to the big game:

  • Super Bowl 52 – the defending champion Patriots lost to the Eagles
  • Super Bowl 49 – the Seahawks repeat bid came up short against the Patriots in dramatic fashion
  • Super Bowl 39 – the Patriots repeated as champions, defeating the Eagles
  • Super Bowl 33 – the Broncos hammered the Falcons to repeat as Super Bowl champions
  • Super Bowl 32 – the Packers attempt at winning back-to-back was thwarted by the Broncos
  • Super Bowl 28 – the Cowboys made good on their second attempt at repeating, beating the Bills for a second straight year
  • Super Bowl 24 – the 49ers won their second straight championship in 1990, demolishing the Broncos 55-10
  • Super Bowl 18 – Washington could not add their name to the list of repeat champions, falling to the Raiders in the Super Bowl
  • Super Bowl 14 – the Steelers repeated as champions again, beating the Los Angeles Rams to hoist the Lombardi for a second straight season
  • Super Bowl 13 – the Cowboys failed to repeat, losing to the Steelers in this one
  • Super Bowl 10 – the Steelers became the third franchise to win back-to-back titles, beating the Cowboys in the second one
  • Super Bowl 8 – the Miami Dolphins knocked off the Vikings to win back-to-back championships
  • Super Bowl 2 – the Packers won the first two Super Bowls

The Chiefs will look to become the eighth franchise to win back-to-back titles in Super Bowl 55. Teams attempting to repeat are 8-5 all-time.

Bonus Trend: AFC Likes the Voice of a Cowboy

It doesn’t go back very far, but it’s worth mentioning that the AFC has won the last three Super Bowls where a former Cowboy was in the broadcast booth – Super Bowl 54 (Troy Aikman), Super Bowl 53 (Tony Romo), and Super Bowl 51 (Troy Aikman).

Romo is back to call Super Bowl 55.

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