15 Crazy Super Bowl Betting Trends
Before you make your final decision on betting either the Los Angeles Rams or Cincinnati Bengals for Super Bowl 56, make sure you’ve done your research!
A good starting point will be ensuring you know the 2022 Super Bowl odds. As you move your way down that list of research, eventually you’ll want to know these mind-blowing, historically-rooted Super Bowl trends.
1) Teams Wearing White Jerseys Have Edge in Super Bowl
This is one of the strongest, yet most obscure, Super Bowl trends you will find! The team wearing their white jerseys has won 14 of the last 17 Super Bowls now.
The only three teams to win a Super Bowl in the last 17 years without wearing their white jerseys were the:
- Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45
- Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl 52
- Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
The Buccaneers continued this trend last year when they beat the Chiefs.
As the home team this year – the NFL rotates home and away between the AFC and NFC each season – the Cincinnati Bengals got to choose which color jersey they wear. They announced on Wednesday morning (February 2) that they will wear their black jerseys, putting them on the wrong side of this trend.
2) Regular-Season Wins Mean Nothing in Super Bowl
*The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles had identical 13-3 records when they met in Super Bowl 52; this is why there is a missing win/loss.
Apparently it’s true when you hear the announcers say, “it doesn’t matter how they got here”. The team with the worse regular season record is 13-2 in the last 16 Super Bowls.
The 2016 New England Patriots (Super Bowl 51) and 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers (Super Bowl 43) are the only two teams in the last 16 years who possessed a better regular-season record than their Super Bowl opponent and went on to win the game.
The LA Rams finished the 2021-22 NFL regular season with a 12-5 record (unfortunately?). The Bengals were just 10-7, giving them the edge when it comes to this trend.
3) Favorites Hold a Hefty Advantage in Super Bowl History
Favorites absolutely dominated the early Super Bowls, as only three underdogs won in the first 14 years. Entering Super Bowl 56, favorites are 36-19 in the championship game.
You can see who the favorite was each year with our Super Bowl odds history.
The Rams are currently 4.5-point favorites against the Bengals in the 2022 Super Bowl.
This trend has recently reversed, though …
4) Underdogs Have the Edge in Recent Super Bowls
Underdogs have had a lot of success in the Super Bowl lately. Looking to the last ten, underdogs have won seven of them outright.
The New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs are the only teams who have won the Super Bowl as the favorite in the last ten years —New England did it in Super Bowl 51 and 53.
The Los Angeles Rams are favored to win the 2022 Super Bowl, making the Cincinnati Bengals the underdogs. Bettors are currently siding with the underdog Bengals, as the NFL public money breakdown shows the majority of the moneyline bets and betting handle are on Cincinnati.
5) Super Bowl Experience Doesn’t Matter
So much for experience matters, right? The team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players has gone on to win ten of the last 15 Super Bowls.
Thanks to the Rams having played in the Super Bowl in 2019, they do carry some Super Bowl-experienced players, including:
- Aaron Donald
- Andrew Whitworth
- Sony Michel (with the Patriots when they beat the Rams)
- Von Miller (with the Broncos)
Though Cooper Kupp was on the team in 2018-19, he missed the second half of the season, as well as the Super Bowl due to injury.
The Bengals have just ONE player on their current roster who has played in a Super Bowl: Ricardo Allen. The defensive back played nearly every snap of the 2017 Super Bowl with the Falcons. However, he’s only playing special teams snaps for the Bengals since the playoffs started.
Cincinnati will be the team with fewer Super Bowl-experienced players, giving them the advantage with this trend.
6) AFC Wins Super Bowls in February
Super Bowl 36 marked the first time the NFL’s championship game was played in February. It has only been played in January once since then.
The AFC hopes the game remains in February moving forward, as they are 12-7 in Super Bowls played in the month of February.
Super Bowl 56 will take place Sunday, February 13th.
7) The AFC Has Been Dominant in Recent Super Bowls
The only NFC teams to win a Super Bowl in the last nine years are the
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who took down the Chiefs in Super Bowl 55
- Seattle Seahawks, who dismantled the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 48
- Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 52
The Cincinnati Bengals are the AFC champions, and will look to notch another win for their conference in the 2022 Super Bowl.
The Falcons, Panthers, 49ers (twice), Rams, and even those mighty Seahawks (Super Bowl 49) have fallen victim to AFC teams in this timeframe.
8) Underdogs Win When Halftime Show is Male-Led
The last six Super Bowls to feature a male-led halftime show were:
- Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd) – the Buccaneers upset the Chiefs
- Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5) – the Patriots beat the Rams as favorites
- Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake) – the Eagles upset the Patriots
- Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay) – the Broncos upset the Panthers
- Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars) – the Seahawks upset the Broncos
- Super Bowl 44 (The Who) – the Saints upset the Colts
As you see, underdogs won five of those six games, with the Patriots serving as the only favorite to win.
9) Underdogs Win Super Bowls Broadcast by NBC
Looking to the last five Super Bowls broadcast by NBC, underdogs have won four of them outright. The last one came in 2018 when Nick Foles’ Eagles upset the Patriots in Super Bowl 52. We have also seen the Patriots upset the Seahawks in Super Bowl 49, the Giants upset the Patriots in Super Bowl 46, and the Broncos upset the Packers in Super Bowl 32 all on NBC.
The only favorite to win on NBC since 1998 has been the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl 43.
10) Underdogs Have the Edge in Recent California Super Bowls
Yet another trend that favors the underdog. We have seen underdogs win four of the last five Super Bowls played in California. Those games include:
- Super Bowl 50 when the Broncos upset the Panthers
- Super Bowl 37 when the Buccaneers upset the Raiders
- Super Bowl 32 when the Broncos upset the Packers
- Super Bowl 27 when the Cowboys beat the Bills—the only favorite to win in California in this span
- Super Bowl 22 when Washington upset the Broncos
If you’re starting to lean towards the underdog in Super Bowl 56, you can still find the Bengals as long as +170 at Caesars Sportsbook.
11) Favorites Hate Super Bowl Point Spreads Between 4-5
Super Bowl underdogs have thrived lately when the game’s point spread is listed between four and five points. There have only been seven Super Bowls that meet this criteria, but here’s a look at the last four:
- Super Bowl 52: the Eagles upset the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs
- Super Bowl 50: the Broncos upset the Panthers as 4.5-point underdogs
- Super Bowl 47: the Ravens upset the 49ers as 4.5-point underdogs
- Super Bowl 44: the Saints upset the Colts as 5-point underdogs
As you see, underdogs have won each of the last four Super Bowls where the spread is listed between four and five.
If you look to all seven where the spread was between four and five, underdogs are 5-2. We also saw an underdog win Super Bowl 37, which was the Buccaneers upsetting the Raiders as 4-point underdogs. However, favorites won Super Bowl 40 and 11, which also had point spreads between four and five.
The Rams are currently listed as 4 or 4.5-point favorites depending on your sportsbook.
12) The NFC Prefers Super Bowls Be Broadcast by NBC
We have a couple contradicting trends here. We mentioned earlier that underdogs tend to win when the Super Bowl is broadcast by NBC, but some of those underdogs have been NFC teams. The NFC conference is actually 8-3 in the last 11 Super Bowls broadcast by NBC.
This trend dates all the way back to Super Bowl 17 (1983), when Washington (NFC) beat Miami on NBC. Since then, only three AFC teams have won when the game is televised on NBC: (1) the Broncos in 1998, (2) Steelers in 2009, and (3) and Patriots in 2015.
The NFC is sending the LA Rams to Super Bowl 56 to keep this trend going.
13) NFC Has Not Been a Good Super Bowl Favorite Lately
The NFC has not been favored in many Super Bowls lately, thanks to the Chiefs and Patriots dominance over the last handful of years. However, they are serving as the favorites again in Super Bowl 56, but have not come through when favored lately.
The last three times the NFC was favored to win the Super Bowl are as follows:
- Super Bowl 50 when the Panthers lost to the Broncos as 4.5-point favorites
- Super Bowl 49 when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots as 1-point favorites
- Super Bowl 47 when the 49ers lost to the Ravens as 4.5-point favorites
The NFC is 0-3 in their last three Super Bowls when listed as the favorite.
14) AFC Beats NFC West Teams in the Super Bowl
Some football fans will realize this trend had to stop before we got back to the 49ers’ dominance in the 80’s and early 90’s. But since then, NFC West teams have not fared well in the Super Bowl. They are just 1-7 in their last eight Super Bowls.
The NFC West’s last eight Super Bowl appearances include:
- Super Bowl 54 when the 49ers lost to the Chiefs
- Super Bowl 53 when the Rams lost to the Patriots
- Super Bowl 49 when the Seahawks lost to the Patriots
- Super Bowl 48 when the Seahawks beat the Broncos—the only NFC West team to win in this span
- Super Bowl 47 when the 49ers lost to the Ravens
- Super Bowl 43 when the Cardinals lost to the Steelers
- Super Bowl 40 when the Seahawks lost to the Steelers
- Super Bowl 36 when the Rams lost to the Patriots
Thankfully for the Rams, they are not playing the Patriots or Steelers, who seem to the NFC West killers.
15) AFC North Teams Win When They Make it to the Super Bowl
Before you go ahead and call me an idiot for getting this wrong, keep in mind the AFC North did not exist until 2002. Prior to that, each conference had an East, West, and Central division. The 2002 realignment removed the Central divisions and added in North and South divisions.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, I’m safe to say AFC North teams are 3-1 in Super Bowl history. The Steelers have accounted for two of these wins—Super Bowls 40 and 43—as well as the only loss, which came against the Packers in Super Bowl 45. The Ravens added the third win in Super Bowl 47, when they took down the 49ers.
The Cincinnati Bengals belong to the AFC North and will look to keep this streak going.
16) Underdogs Shine in Super Bowls with Few Points Expected
Yeah, yeah. The title says 15 trends. But you know SportsBettingDime always goes the extra mile for you. So here’s the 16th crazy Super Bowl trend: underdogs have won each of the last five Super Bowls where the game total was set at less than 50.
The last five Super Bowls that meet this criteria are:
- Super Bowl 52 where the Eagles upset the Patriots when the over/under was set at 49
- Super Bowl 50 where the Broncos upset the Panthers when the over/under was set at 43
- Super Bowl 49 where the Patriots upset the Seahawks when the over/under was set at 47.5
- Super Bowl 48 where the Seahawks upset the Broncos when the over/under was set at 47.5
- Super Bowl 47 where the Ravens upset the 49ers when the over/under was set at 48
The over/under for Super Bowl 56 is currently listed at 48.5.
If you enjoyed these fun Super Bowl trends, check out our ATS and Over/Under trends for the Super Bowl. If you’re new to betting and find yourself wanting to back any of the trends above, see the following pages for help getting started:
Let's have fun and keep it civil.