How To Bet on the NFL MVP for the 2023-24 Football Season

The closing odds on 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson were -5,000. Jackson won unanimously in the end, but his odds started at +8,000 in May of that year – equivalent to a 1.23 percent chance!

Similarly, in 2018, eventual MVP Patrick Mahomes opened at +10,000 in April. Mahomes quickly became the favorite in September 2018 when he threw 13 touchdowns in the first three games of the season, an NFL record. But if you bet on him before that, you cashed out big time.

Who Bets on NFL MVP Futures?

Betting on the NFL MVP is a lot of fun and can offer massive payouts for those lucky or skilled enough to cash in.

However, most sharps stay away from futures bets for two primary reasons:

1. Futures are difficult to handicap.
2. The vig is often high.

Individual awards can be particularly tough to pick correctly. An MVP candidate can get injured at any point in time, or their team may struggle for reasons beyond their control, which affects their chances of taking home the league’s highest individual award.

Check out our complete NFL futures betting guide for a deeper dive into the pros and cons of this type of wagering.

How to Be Successful with NFL MVP Betting

Successful betting is all about understanding true probability versus implied probability. There’s value to be found with futures bets, but you can’t just set it and forget it. Don’t fall into the sucker’s trap!

A successful NFL MVP bettor finds value early, then watches the board every week. They may even bet on multiple players, either right when the lines open if there’s enough value or during the season when monitoring lines and deciding it’s beneficial to hedge.

If you choose to bet on multiple players, make sure you understand how much you are risking in total versus the potential payout if your pick wins. Always do the math first! Use the SBD Odds Converter for help calculating payouts.

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Lastly, keep in mind that futures lines can vary significantly from book to book. Once you’ve identified a player you think will win MVP, be sure to find the sportsbook that gives him the longest odds – this will provide you with the highest payout.

The table below shows real odds taken from three different sportsbooks in week 14 of the 2020 season.

The bolded number shows the best value for each of the top three MVP candidates that week: Mahomes, Rodgers, and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Notice that the best book depends on which player you want to bet on – that’s why line shopping is essential!

Unique Considerations for NFL MVP Betting

The history of the NFL MVP Award can provide some crucial insights when deciding who put your money on. Spoiler alert: the MVP is usually a quarterback on a playoff-bound team.

Player Position

Defense may win championships, but it’s evident that quarterbacks and running backs reign supreme when it comes to the regular-season NFL Most Valuable Player award.

From 1961 to 2020, 62 players won (or tied for) an NFL MVP award. Here’s the positional breakdown of those award winners:

Clearly, voters tend to favor offensive positions. Only two defensive players have ever won the MVP award. Nine of the last 10 winners were quarterbacks. In fact, the last time an NFL MVP winner wasn’t a quarterback or running back was when New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor won in 1986. The only other defensive player to win MVP was defensive tackle Alan Page of the Minnesota Vikings in 1971.

While kickers regularly score the most points on an NFL team, they are rarely considered the most valuable. Mark Moseley of the Washington Football Team is the only placekicker to have won an MVP award. He made a league-leading 20 of 21 field goals in the strike-shortened 1982 season. This 95 percent success rate was an NFL record at the time.

Team Record

Perhaps even more important than a player’s position is their team’s record. It may sound redundant, but the NFL MVP award represents the most valuable player and is not necessarily synonymous with the best player. Historically, MVP voters favor players on teams that win a lot.

If your MVP pick plays for a team that doesn’t look like it will make the playoffs, you might want to reconsider or make a smart hedge. Only two players have won the award despite their team missing the playoffs, all the way back in 1967 and 1973.

In the past 20 years, every MVP winner played for a team that won at least ten games. Seventeen of the past 20 MVPs won 12 or more games, and eight won 14 or more. The MVP is an individual award, but voters expect candidates to make their teams better.

Franchise

That said, several NFL teams that have won a Super Bowl are yet to produce a regular-season MVP. Four teams – the Packers (9), Colts (8), 49ers (5), Rams (4) – account for 26 MVPs.

The following seven NFL franchises have never produced a regular-season MVP.

• New York Jets*
• Houston Texans
• Jacksonville Jaguars
• Arizona Cardinals
• Philadelphia Eagles*
• New Orleans Saints*
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers*

*denotes franchise that has won a Super Bowl

NFL MVPs and the Super Bowl

Wondering about the chances of an MVP going on to win the Super Bowl (or before 1966, the NFL Championship Game)? That’s occurred 13 times, but not since 1999, when Kurt Warner led the Rams to a championship and took home both the regular season and Super Bowl MVP.

Those interested in Super Bowl prop bets should be aware that only six players have won a regular season and Super Bowl MVP award in the same season:

• Bart Starr (1966)
• Terry Bradshaw (1978)
• Joe Montana (1989)
• Emmitt Smith (1993)
• Steve Young (1994)
• Kurt Warner (1999)

More recently, winning the MVP has been considered a bit of a curse. Since 2000, nine MVPs have led their team to the Super Bowl but lost the big game.

NFL MVP Fun Facts

NFL MVP betting is highly entertaining. You’ll no doubt want to discuss the MVP race with your friends, so let’s finish off with some additional fun facts.

• Peyton Manning is the only player with more than 3 MVP awards (he has 5) and the only player to win it with two different teams. Manning won with the Indianapolis Colts in 2003, 2004, 2008, and 2009, and the Denver Broncos in 2013.
• Only two players in history have won the award unanimously – Tom Brady in 2010 and Lamar Jackson in 2019. Jackson is also the youngest player ever to receive the award.
• Tom Brady (3) and Aaron Rodgers (3) are the only active players with more than one MVP award.

Have fun and enjoy the action out there!

Betting on the NFL MVP? Keep Track of the Odds

Now that you know what to consider when betting on the NFL MVP, make sure you check out these NFL betting apps & monitor the odds before and after you place your wager.

Find more tips and tricks for successful NFL betting in our ‘How to Bet on Sports’ section.