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How To Bet on the NFL MVP for the 2024-25 Football Season
Updated:
Betting on the NFL MVP winner is one of the most popular football futures bets aside from picking which team will win the Super Bowl.
Futures bets are wagers placed on outcomes far before the event in question. Some NFL futures are made available the moment the previous year’s Super Bowl ends, while NFL MVP odds typically come out in March each year.
Like most futures bets, NFL MVP bets can be very lucrative, particularly if you pick the right player before the season, or at a time when they are not seen as the favorite. However, these bets are notoriously difficult to handicap.
Of course, as the old saying goes: no risk, no reward! Let’s discuss when and how to bet on the NFL MVP and strategies you should keep in mind when making your NFL MVP predictions.
How To Bet on the NFL MVP Sections:
- How To Bet On The 2023-2024 NFL MVP Award
- What Is the Best NFL MVP Betting Strategy?
- When Are NFL MVP Bets Available?
- How to Be Successful with NFL MVP Betting
- Unique Considerations for NFL MVP Betting
How To Bet On the NFL MVP Award
With so many great betting sites and apps out there, it’s easier than ever to bet on the NFL MVP. Top sports betting apps including DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, ESPN Bet, BetMGM, bet365, and Caesars Sportsbook all offer competitive betting odds on the next NFL MVP.
Betting on the NFL MVP award only involves a few steps and they’re basically the same across every sportsbook mentioned:
- Navigate to your sportsbook’s NFL section and then find either their “futures” or “awards” category. Each sportsbook is slightly different in how they organize their betting markets.
- Be sure you are viewing NFL MVP odds and not a different player award
- Select the player you want to bet to win NFL MVP by clicking their name from the list (which will have their odds included as well)
- Pull up your bet slip, which will contain your NFL MVP bet, and enter the amount of money you would like to risk
- As long as you are logged into your account, the last thing to do is press the “place bet” button to lock in your NFL MVP wager
Once you have followed the five steps above on how to bet on the NFL MVP, the only thing left to do is take in the action!
As mentioned, each sportsbook may be slightly different in how they organize their sportsbook, so let’s take a look at how to bet on the NFL MVP at DraftKings, specifically.
How to Bet on NFL MVP at DraftKings
DraftKings is the sportsbook that utilizes the most sub-navigations. So, you won’t find yourself scrolling much to find NFL MVP odds at Draftkings, but you will click more buttons in order to find them than you would at other sportsbooks.
After you have clicked the “NFL” section at DraftKings, you’ll want to swipe through their first sub-menu that appears in order to find “Awards.” Then you’ll get another sub-menu under that one that includes all the NFL player awards they have odds for. Normally, MVP will be the default (first option) lander after you select “awards,” but be sure that is the one selected.
Here are a couple screenshots I took from inside the DraftKings app to show you how easy it is to bet the NFL MVP at DraftKings:
The yellow highlighted spots in the images are where you should be clicking or the fields you should be filling out in order to bet NFL MVP at DraftKings.
What Is the Best NFL MVP Betting Strategy?
The best strategy for betting NFL MVP is similar to betting most futures. Here is everything I consider when betting the NFL MVP:
- Understand the NFL MVP is a quarterback award. it would take a truly historic season from a running back or wide receiver for them to take home the honor. So, the best approach in selecting your MVP is narrowing it down to QBs
- Make sure your QB is on a team who has a good chance to win 12+ games. The NFL MVP is often awarded to the QB of one of the league’s best teams. So, your QB is going to need to win at least 12 games to win this award
- Consider a QB who doesn’t have a ton of household names as weapons. As we saw with Brock Purdy in 2023-24, this can be held against a quarterback and he may be overlooked for someone the AP believes is doing more of the heavy-lifting on their own
- Don’t be afraid to wait to place your NFL MVP bet. For example, I think Patrick Mahomes is going to win the NFL MVP in 2024-25, but I think his opening odds have been too short. So, I’m going to be waiting and monitoring the odds, hoping Mahomes slips up a little early on or someone else really shines in order to get some better odds. In short, be sure you see value in the bet before placing it
- Perhaps the most important strategy when it comes to betting NFL MVP, which is the same when it comes to placing any bet, is to ensure you get the best price on your bet by shopping around at as many sportsbooks as possible.
When Are NFL MVP Odds Available?
NFL MVP betting begins long before the season starts. In many cases, you can bet on the next season’s MVP in March of each year. NFL MVP odds are available all offseason, barring some major move/injury that results in sportsbooks closing the market briefly to reassess, and are typically only closed Sunday afternoons while there are plenty of games ongoing.
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We typically see the most movement in NFL MVP odds when sportsbooks reopen the market Monday morning following the heavy Sunday slate of games. Remember that as with any futures bet, it could be a long time before you get your stake back. Never bet any money you can’t afford to spare!
Where Can I Bet on NFL MVP Odds?
You can bet on the NFL MVP race from any state that has legal sportsbooks. No states have any restrictions on betting NFL player awards, and no sportsbooks restrict access either. Though, some are much easier than others to find, and some take a while to reopen their lines.
For a complete list of states where sports betting is legal, check out our list of best US sportsbooks.
When Should I Bet on NFL MVP?
Since you can bet on the NFL MVP from March through January, you’re probably wondering when the best time is to place your wager.
Truthfully, there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer to this question. It depends on your objective and when you see value in a betting line.
Futures odds, particularly for individual player awards, can shift dramatically throughout a season. Generally speaking, the further in advance you make your futures bet, the higher the payout.
Sports Betting Dime’s NFL MVP odds tracker displays current NFL MVP odds. More importantly, it helps you quickly evaluate how the lines are shifting over time, from the opening odds right up until the MVP winner is announced. Our proprietary model aggregates the odds from top sportsbooks, which gives you a composite number that removes the influence that money has on the lines at individual books. In other words, you’ll get a more objective take on which NFL MVP candidates have the best odds of taking home the NFL MVP Award.
Most people who bet futures place their wagers around major events. Popular times to bet on the NFL MVP include when lines open, during free agency and the NFL draft, at the start of training camp, and right before the regular season begins.
Of course, opening odds are based almost entirely on how candidates faired last season and any relevant offseason news. Once the new season starts, more information becomes available with each game, and lines of MVP favorites trend shorter and shorter. By week 15 or 16, most people have a reasonable idea who the top three or four MVP candidates are, and chances of a player outside of this group winning are slim.
Placing your wager early, or after a top contender has struggled, is the best way to optimize your return.
Example: Betting on the Favorite
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was the opening favorite to win the 2017 MVP Award. Brady remained so for much of that season and went on to win his third NFL MVP Award.
The table below illustrates how the timing of your futures bet can affect your winnings.
| Bet Date | Brady’s Odds | Profit on $100 Bet |
|---|---|---|
| July 24, 2017 | +550 | $550 |
| October 30, 2017 | +400 | $400 |
| December 14, 2017 | -160 | $63 |
| January 1, 2018 | -300 | $33 |
Brady was the odds-on favorite in each of the weeks above (and others), but you can clearly see those who picked him early profited the most on his MVP win.
Similarly, then Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers entered the season with the second-highest opening odds at +2200. His odds were never worse than 2425 and got progressively shorter as the season wore on. Rodgers’ closing odds were -2500, again reflecting the value in getting your wagers in earlier in the MVP race. Rodgers is sitting at +1600 odds to be the 2024 NFL MVP with his new team the New York Jets.
Example: Betting on a Longshot
If you’re lucky (or smart) enough to spot an early longshot who ends up winning it all, the rewards can be enormous. For example, those who took Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes in 2018 or Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson in 2019 at their opening odds eventually walked away with ridiculous payouts.
| Year | Opening Favorite (Odds) | Eventual MVP (Opening Odds) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes (+400) | Lamar Jackson (+8000) |
| 2018 | Tom Brady (+600) | Patrick Mahomes (+10000) |
The closing odds on 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson were -5000. Jackson won unanimously in the end, but his odds started at +8,000 in May of that year – equivalent to a 1.23 percent chance!
Similarly, in 2018, eventual MVP Patrick Mahomes opened at +10000 in April. Mahomes quickly became the favorite in September 2018 when he threw 13 touchdowns in the first three games of the season, an NFL record. But if you bet on him before that, you cashed out big time.
Who Bets on NFL MVP Futures?
Betting on the NFL MVP is a lot of fun and can offer massive payouts for those lucky or skilled enough to cash in.
However, most sharps stay away from futures bets for three primary reasons:
- Futures are difficult to handicap.
- The vig is often high.
- They don’t like locking up any of their bankroll for such a long period.
Individual awards can be particularly tough to pick correctly. An MVP candidate can get injured at any point in time, or their team may struggle for reasons beyond their control, which affects their chances of taking home the league’s highest individual award.
Check out our complete NFL futures betting guide for a deeper dive into the pros and cons of this type of wagering.
How to Be Successful with NFL MVP Betting
Successful betting is all about understanding true probability versus implied probability. There’s value to be found with futures bets, but you can’t just set it and forget it. Don’t fall into the sucker’s trap!
A successful NFL MVP bettor finds value early, then watches the board every week. They may even bet on multiple players, either right when the lines open if there’s enough value or during the season when monitoring lines and deciding it’s beneficial to hedge.
If you choose to bet on multiple players, make sure you understand how much you are risking in total versus the potential payout if your pick wins. Always do the math first! Use the SBD Odds Converter for help calculating payouts.
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Lastly, keep in mind that futures lines can vary significantly from book to book. Once you’ve identified a player you think will win MVP, be sure to find the sportsbook that gives him the longest odds – this will provide you with the highest payout.
The table below shows real odds taken from three different sportsbooks in week 14 of the 2020 season.
The bolded number shows the best value for each of the top three MVP candidates that week: Mahomes, Rodgers, and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Notice that the best book depends on which player you want to bet on – that’s why line shopping is essential!
Unique Considerations for NFL MVP Betting
The history of the NFL MVP Award can provide some crucial insights when deciding who put your money on. Spoiler alert: the MVP is usually a quarterback on a playoff-bound team.
Player Position
Defense may win championships, but it’s evident that quarterbacks and running backs reign supreme when it comes to the regular-season NFL Most Valuable Player award.
From 1961 to 2020, 62 players won (or tied for) an NFL MVP award. Here’s the positional breakdown of those award winners:
Clearly, voters tend to favor offensive positions. Only two defensive players have ever won the MVP award. Nine of the last 10 winners were quarterbacks. In fact, the last time an NFL MVP winner wasn’t a quarterback or running back was when New York Giants linebacker Lawrence Taylor won in 1986. The only other defensive player to win MVP was defensive tackle Alan Page of the Minnesota Vikings in 1971.
While kickers regularly score the most points on an NFL team, they are rarely considered the most valuable. Mark Moseley of the Washington Football Team is the only placekicker to have won an MVP award. He made a league-leading 20 of 21 field goals in the strike-shortened 1982 season. This 95 percent success rate was an NFL record at the time.
Team Record
Perhaps even more important than a player’s position is their team’s record. It may sound redundant, but the NFL MVP award represents the most valuable player and is not necessarily synonymous with the best player. Historically, MVP voters favor players on teams that win a lot.
If your MVP pick plays for a team that doesn’t look like it will make the playoffs, you might want to reconsider or make a smart hedge. Only two players have won the award despite their team missing the playoffs, all the way back in 1967 and 1973.
In the past 20 years, every MVP winner played for a team that won at least ten games. Seventeen of the past 20 MVPs won 12 or more games, and eight won 14 or more. The MVP is an individual award, but voters expect candidates to make their teams better.
Franchise
That said, several NFL teams that have won a Super Bowl are yet to produce a regular-season MVP. Four teams – the Packers (9), Colts (8), 49ers (5), Rams (4) – account for 26 MVPs.
The following seven NFL franchises have never produced a regular-season MVP.
- New York Jets*
- Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Arizona Cardinals
- Philadelphia Eagles*
- New Orleans Saints*
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers*
*denotes franchise that has won a Super Bowl
NFL MVP Fun Facts
NFL MVP betting is highly entertaining. You’ll no doubt want to discuss the MVP race with your friends, so let’s finish off with some additional fun facts.
- Peyton Manning is the only player with more than 3 MVP awards (he has 5) and the only player to win it with two different teams. Manning won with the Indianapolis Colts in 2003, 2004, 2008, and 2009, and the Denver Broncos in 2013.
- Only two players in history have won the award unanimously – Tom Brady in 2010 and Lamar Jackson in 2019. Jackson is also the youngest player ever to receive the award.
- Tom Brady (3) and Aaron Rodgers (3) are the only active players with more than one MVP award.
Have fun and enjoy the action out there!
Betting on the NFL MVP? Keep Track of the Odds
Now that you know what to consider when betting on the NFL MVP, make sure you check out these NFL betting apps & monitor the odds before and after you place your wager.
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Find more tips and tricks for successful NFL betting in our ‘How to Bet on Sports’ section.
Mitchell South
Content Marketing Specialist
A sports fanatic and strategic wordsmith, Mitchell has been writing gaming content for over seven years. As sports betting emerges in markets across the globe, he’s ready to journey alongside those who haven’t wagered before with informative articles and comprehensive how-to guides.
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