March Madness Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Betting Trends

By the time the Sweet 16 arrives, the NCAA Tournament is technically 76% complete, as 48 of 63 games are in the books. But no matter which bracket contest you enter, every scoring system values the later rounds more, and you won’t be winning anything unless you nail your picks for the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and beyond.

March Madness Sweet 16 Betting and Elite Eight Betting Trends

Since past performance is the best indicator of future outcomes, recent trends can help you get a leg up. This page lists the most-notable betting trends for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams back in 1985. Of course, just because a trend has existed thus far does not guarantee it will continue. Make sure you do your own research before wagering your hard-earned money.

*Unless otherwise indicated, all the trends below date back to the 1985 tournament, when the field was expanded to 64 teams.

1. A #1 Seed Will Fall

Only once in the last 38 tournament have all four #1 seeds reached the Final Four (2008). In fact, only four tournaments witnessed three #1 seeds advance to the Final Four. That means 34 of 38 Final Fours featured two or fewer #1 seeds. Don’t hesitate to knock off some chalk when you get to the third and fourth rounds.

2. #1 Seeds Have Been Dominating the Sweet 16

Add the following caveat to the trend above: dating back to 2014, #1 seeds have won 19 of their last 24 games in the Sweet 16. They don’t all get there but, when they do, they’re winning at nearly an 80% clip.

The Elite 8 has not been so kind, however …

3. #1 Seeds Are Only So-So in the Elite 8 Recently

Only 14 #1 seeds, in total, have made the Final Four since 2012, and #1 seeds are a combined 14-10 in the Elite 8 in that span.

4. At Least One #1 Seed Will Reach the Final Four

Crossing off all the #1 seeds in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 would be almost as unwise as moving them all through to the final weekend. Only three Final Fours (2006, 2011, 2023) have featured zero #1 seeds.

5.  #12 Seeds Come Back to Reality in the Sweet 16

As detailed in First-Round Trends You Need to Know, #12 seeds outperform expectations in the first two rounds. That comes to an abrupt halt in the Sweet 16, where #12 seeds are 2-20 overall and 0-20 when they face a #1 seed.

#12 seeds are 2-20 [in the Sweet 16] overall, and 0-20 when they face a #1 seed.

The two wins came courtesy 2002 Missouri (which knocked off #5 Miami and #4 Ohio State before getting a lucky draw against #8 UCLA in the Sweet 16) and 2021 Oregon State (which beat #5 Tennessee, #4 OK State, and then also faced a #8 seed – Loyola-Chicago – in the Sweet 16).

6.  #7-#11 Seeds are Live Dogs

The Cinderella story for one team in the #7 to #11 range is likely to continue past the Sweet 16 and Elite 8. Going back to 2011, at least one team in that range has reached the Final Four every year, save 2012 and 2019.

7. #2 Seeds Dominate #3 Seeds in the Sweet 16

When the chalk holds, the Sweet 16 matchups pit #2s versus #3s in what ought to be competitive games. Yet the #2s have owned the head-to-head, going 32-18 all-time.

8. #2 seeds Are 50/50 versus #1 Seeds in the Elite 8

The #2 seeds keep up their strong showing in the Elite 8, as well, holding a 24-24 all-time record against #1 seeds. Over the last ten meetings (dating back to 2010), #2 seeds hold a 7-4 edge.

9. No #6 Seed Has Reached the Final Four since 1992

Even though several #7 and #8 seeds have made the third weekend since 1992 (three and four, respectively), the ’92 Blue Devils were the last #6 seed to do so.

10. Only Two #9 Seeds Have Reached the Final Four

Led by an NBA-caliber backcourt of Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the 2013 Wichita State Shockers were the first #9 seed to make the last quartet since the 1985 expansion to 64 teams.

Led by … Fred Van Vleet and Ron Baker, the 2013 Wichita State Shockers are the only #9 seed to make the [Final Four].

Florida Atlantic, which had the good fortune of facing Fairleigh Dickinson in the second round instead of #1 Purdue, became the second #9 seed to reach the Final Four in 2023.

Part of the issue is missed opportunities in the earlier rounds; as detailed in the First-Round Trends You Need to Know, #9 seeds have ironically fared much worse than #8 seeds after the Round of 64. That’s ironic because the #8-vs-#9 matchups in the first round are basically toss-ups. (The Selection Committee doesn’t actually differentiate between #8 and #9 seeds; they are all lumped together and matchups are determined in part by location.)

11. Blue Bloods Get the Job Done

Duke (13) and North Carolina (12) have reached the most Final Fours since 1985. Going back to the tournament’s inception in 1939, UCLA is second in Final Four appearances with 19 (we count vacated wins around here), but only five of those have come since the field was expanded in ’85.

Kansas (10), Kentucky (8), Michigan State (7), UConn (6), Syracuse (5), Florida (5), Michigan (5) and all have more in that span.

12. BYU, Xavier, and Missouri Hit a Roadblock

BYU (29), Xavier (28), and Missouri (26) own the dubious record of most tournament appearances without reaching a Final Four. The Musketeers came tantalizingly close in 2017, making a Cinderella run to the Elite 8 as a #11 seed, where they were crushed (83-59) by eventual national runner-up Gonzaga. But they didn’t even get out of the second round in 2018 as a #1.

With More Knowledge Comes a Greater ROI

If you’re an aspiring sharp bettor, you should be doing anything and everything you can to gain an edge on your bookmakers.

Start with our strategy guides, where we cover everything from the 7 perennial attributes of March Madness winners to more complex, mathematically-oriented strategies like the Poisson distribution method.