2015 Australian Open Betting Preview and Predictions

The first major tennis championship of the year is almost here. The Australian Open starts in Melbourne on Monday (January 19).

While a huge majority of the media attention goes to four players – Serena Williams on the women’s side, and Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal in the men’s draw – last year two relative unknowns captured the title.

Here’s what you need to know about the 2015 edition.

Women’s Draw:

There will be no repeat champion in the women’s draw as 2014 champ Li Na has now retired.

Williams has won 18 major titles and may very well be the best women’s player of all time. She has captured five championships in Australia, but has not reached the finals since 2010. In fact, Williams won just one major title last year and five of her last 17 big time events. Williams is a deserving 5/2 favorite, but is no lock.

After Williams, Maria Sharapova (5/1), Simona Halep (7/1), Petra Kvitova (10/1), Caroline Wozniacki (10/1), and Victoria Azarenka (12/1) have the next best odds.

Sharapova, the fiercest competitor on the women’s tour, won the event in 2008 and lost in the finals in 2007 and 2012. She returned to the upper echelon of the women’s ranks last year with a win at the French Open.

Halep withdrew from a warm-up event with an illness, but is ranked third in the world and reached her first major final last year at the French Open. The 2015 season could truly be a breakout campaign for the 23-year-old Romanian.

Another relative youngster in the women’s game, Kvitova (24) already has two major titles to her name; but both were at Wimbledon, and the Czech national has never reached an Aussie Open Finals.

Wozniacki – a former world No. 1 – played well last year, particularly at the end of the season, reaching the finals of the US Open. But she has never won a major and is 1-10 all-time against Williams.

Both of Azarenka’s major titles came at the Aussie Open (2012 and 2013), where she is 32-7 all time. But she was injured for much of 2014 and has played poorly to begin 2015.

Men’s Draw:

Seven-time major champion Novak Djokovic is a deserving 5/4 favorite. The Serbian has four Aussie Open titles to his name, and is 43-6 all time at the tournament (including seven straight quarterfinals appearances). He played well throughout last year and was ranked number one at the end of the season. But there is some cause for concern heading into next week, as he lost to Ivo Karlovic in the quarterfinals of a warm-up tournament in Qatar earlier this month.

Federer (13/2), Nadal (10/1), Andy Murray (10/1), defending champion Stanislas Wawrinka (14/1), and Kei Nishikori (14/1) loom as the biggest threats to Djokovic.

Federer, a 17-time major champion and perhaps the greatest player of all time, has not won a major title since 2012; he has won the Australian Open four times but not since 2010. He has also reached just one major final since 2012 (Wimbledon, 2014).

Murray has two career majors and has reached three finals in Melbourne, but never won the title. He had an injury-plagued 2014 season, but appears to have himself in good shape for 2015.

Nadal, a 14-time major champion with one win in Australia, has had a difficult go recently. He did not play well in the later portion of 2014 and has started 2015 cold. That said, he has a winning record against Djokovic (23-19), has long been the bane of Federer’s existence (23-10), and has also dominated Murray (15-5).

Wawrinka had never reached a major final before shocking the world last year in Melbourne. He played poorly at the French Open, and was eliminated in the quarterfinals at last year’s Wimbledon and US Open. He was key in Switzerland’s Davis Cup title run in 2014, though, and will hope to stay among the top tier in 2015.

Nishikori has improved in each year of his career and reached his first major final last year at the US Open. He is ranked fifth in the world after winning tournaments in Malaysia and Tokyo to finish 2014.

Betting Predictions:

Williams and Djokovic are heavy favorites and they’ve earned their spots at the top of the odds.

Djokovic is a pro’s pro in the prime of his career. He loves playing in Australia and there are significant reasons to knock all of his major competitors. Look for him to capture a fifth Australian Open title.

At the age of 33, however, Williams is vulnerable and hasn’t played consistently at the start of years. The women’s side is loaded with talent and has proven unpredictable lately, with five different winners in the last six Grand Slams. Coming off a banner year in 2014 and looking for more this season, Simona Halep is good value at +700.

(Photo credit: Yann Caradec (Flickr: Novak Djokovic) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons.)