Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins Prediction: Betting the Rousey-Carano Undercard

• Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou returns to MMA for the Rousey-Carano undercard
• Ngannou will take on fellow UFC alum Philipe Lins in a five-round heavyweight bout
• Get our thoughts and predictions on this exciting matchup for Saturday’s inaugural MVP MMA event on Netflix

Jake Paul and Nakisa Bidarian’s MVP MMA isn’t cutting any corners for its Netflix debut this Saturday with a host of excellent undercard fights set to support the highly anticipated Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano main event.

One such matchup is the return of Francis Ngannou, who will rejoin the MMA ranks for the first time since October 2024 to face Philipe Lins in a five-round heavyweight co-main event. While many are anticipating a triumphant return to form for Ngannou, the matchup with Lins presents some interesting challenges for the 39-year-old native of Cameroon.

Let’s break down the Ngannou vs. Lins odds and I’ll share my thoughts who wins this fight and how.

Ngannou vs. Lins Odds

Odds as of May 14, 2026 at BetMGM. Grab a BetMGM promo code for Saturday’s fights or browse UFC betting apps for more options.

Ngannou is, not surprisingly, a massive favorite coming into this fight. At -2500 on the moneyline, he has an implied probability of 96.2%. Compared to Lins at +1050 on the moneyline, the Brazilian fighter’s implied probability only reaches a mere 8.7%.

The likelihood of a finish remans high, especially on Ngannou’s side of the coin. This is right in line with many heavyweight bouts in MMA.

Ngannou vs. Lins Prediction

On paper, everything about this fight screams a classic Ngannou finish. Lins is older, smaller, and less accomplished in the MMA sphere than his former UFC heavyweight champion opponent.

The one interesting factor here is going to be Ngannou’s chin and overall ring rust. While Ngannou has only been knocked out cold one time in his career (in a boxing match with Anthony Joshua), he’s only appeared in one MMA fight since that time. Though he passed that test with flying colors against PFL veteran Renan Ferreira, Lins is slightly a cut above Ngannou’s last MMA opponent.

There is a world in which Lins catches Ngannou lacking and surprises him with a big shot — but the more realistic scenario is a bad night at the office for him. Keep in mind that Lins is already an undersized heavyweight who is actually coming up from 205-pounds, where he fought most of his UFC career. That in itself presents a huge disadvantage against a hulking heavyweight like Ngannou.

At some point in this fight, I see Ngannou walking Lins down and landing a thunderous shot that will flatline his opponent to become an ESPN highlight for weeks to come.

Prediction: Ngannou by KO, TKO, or DQ (-900) via BetMGM

Additional Ngannou vs. Lins Betting Analysis

Ngannou is the biggest favorite on this MVP MMA card for a reason, and Lins is a very favorable matchup for the former UFC heavyweight champ. Nothing in combat sports is guaranteed, but if you believe in any kind of ring rust and tentativeness on Ngannou’s part then making it to a decision (+800 via BetMGM) could happen. It’s not likely, but it could happen. In my opinion, there’s an even better shot we could see a quick finish for Ngannou and +425 odds on him to win in 60 seconds or less is intriguing.

You don’t ever want to use the word “mismatch” when it comes to heavyweights who can land and finish fights at any time with a single shot, but this is just about as close to one as you’ll get. You’re not going to make a ton of money on an Ngannou KO, TKO, or DQ, but it’s the most likely outcome given the circumstances. In terms of real betting value, I think you might be better off looking at some of the other fantastic matchups on this card, such as Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry.