Amanda Serrano vs. Lucrecia Manzur Predictions, Odds & Best Bets – Expert Picks for Temecula
By Jaren Kawada in Boxing
Published:
- Amanda Serrano looks to make women’s boxing history against Lucrecia Manzur on Friday night
- The WBA and WBO women’s featherweight title matchup headlines the first fight card broadcast live on TikTok
- Check out the best analysis, predictions and bets for the full Serrano vs. Manzur fight card below
Three months after tying Christy Martin’s women’s boxing record with 32 knockouts, Amanda Serrano (49-4-1) looks to stand alone in the record books in her next title defense against Lucrecia Manzur (14-4). Serrano’s WBA and WBO women’s featherweight titles will be on the line in the main event bout from the Pechanga Resort Casino in Temecula, California.
Serrano and Manzur headline a 12-fight card on Friday night. The first two fights of the night will broadcast on YouTube before the 10-fight main card becomes the first boxing event to stream live on TikTok.
Undefeated junior welterweights Albina Moldazhanova and Shiela Liesegang get the night started at 6:15 p.m. ET, with strawweight star Jocelyn Camarillo taking on Ashley Felix to kick off the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
Amanda Serrano vs. Lucrecia Manzur Fight Card Odds
Odds as of Aug. 21, 2026, on Bet365 and theScore Sportsbook. Check out the best boxing apps in 2026 to place a wager.
Amanda Serrano closes on fight night as the biggest favorite on the card, with an overwhelming -2500 moneyline price to beat Lucrecia Manzur. Serrano’s odds give her an implied win probability of 0 percent. The books are also heavily expecting her to break Martin’s record, with her knockout prop juiced to -450.
The main card featured bout between Mayelli Flores and Melissa Mortensen is the closest-lined fight of the card, with Flores only a -150 favorite. The former super bantamweight world title challenger is coming off a loss to divisional champion Ellie Scotney, while Mortensen brings a spotless 9-0 record into the matchup.
Amanda Serrano vs. Lucrecia Manzur Best Bet
This entire fight card is built for Serrano to break Martin’s long-standing record, and MVP found her the right opponent. Serrano is levels above Manzur in almost every regard and the openings for her to find the button will be there for the taking.
Serrano has been accustomed to fighting three-minute rounds, but this fight will revert to the women’s boxing standard of two-minute stanzas. Still, even with 10 fewer minutes to work with, Serrano is in for another quick night in the office.
Manzur is aggressive and will bring the fight to the champion, but all that does is make her wide open to counters and power punches coming back her direction. Serrano has spent the last three years working on improving as a boxer and sitting down on her punches. Manzur is the perfect opponent for her to tee off on.
Everything Manzur throws comes from wide angles, and her missed punches thrust her well out of position. Serrano will touch the chin over and over to secure her moment well before the final bell. With the stakes as high as they are, expect the referee to even be a little quick on the trigger, much like in Serrano’s last win over Cheyenne Hanson.
- Boxing Picks: Under 6.5 Rounds (-125 on theScore)
Jahmal Harvey vs. Hammet Keb Prediction
In just his fourth professional fight, former Olympian Jahmal Harvey looks to remain undefeated against Mexican prospect Hammet Keb. MVP is fully invested in Harvey at this point and continue to give him progressive opportunities on the biggest stage of his career.
Harvey remains an unfinished product who fights behind a strong jab and fast hands but continues to leave defense on the backburner. Still, he is a better boxer than Keb across the board, flaws and all. Keb is a classic Mexican fighter who will always bring the fight, posing potential challenges for a young fighter like Harvey, but his game lacks layers.
Harvey tends to get the job done inside the distance, and Keb is one of the most hittable opponents he will face. Yet, it might still take the American time to settle into a fight with a chaos merchant like Keb, who will be the first fighter to actually fight back in Harvey’s professional career. With the fight only being six rounds, there is a lot less time for Harvey to set up a stoppage than he is used to.
Prop lines are not yet available for this six-round co-main event, but look for the value on the decision prop as the fight nears.
- Boxing Picks: Jahmal Harvey Moneyline (-3500 on Bet365)
Mayelli Flores vs. Melissa Mortensen Prediction
Mayelli Flores and Melissa Mortensen collide in a classic veteran vs. prospect matchup on the MVP TikTok main card. Mortensen has an opportunity to rocket up the super bantamweight division, but Flores has a slight edge in what should be an entertaining and competitive bout.
In many ways, Flores and Mortensen are spitting images of each other. Their physiques could not be more different, but they fight with the same type of aggression and grit, looking to walk forward and throw leather without much care for defense. The 5-foot-4 Mortensen is much bigger than her 4-foot-11 counterpart, which, along with the 10-year age gap, gives her the upper hand on paper. Yet, the more experienced Flores is the rightful favorite due to her slightly improved defense and dirty boxing.
Neither fighter defends much, but Mortensen’s wide-open guard and sky-high chin make her much more vulnerable. As a shorter wrecking ball, Flores at least attempts to move her head while keeping her gloves on her temples, allowing her constant ducking movement to consistently get her into close range. Mortensen would be better suited in this matchup if she had a better jab and footwork, but she enjoys living in the fire too much.
While Mortensen might have slightly more natural power, her chin has yet to be tested, while Flores has walked through nearly everything the 122-pound division has to offer. It took an elite boxer in Ellie Scotney to disrupt Flores’ chaotic game plan, and Mortensen does not fit that bill. Both fighters will get the fight they are most comfortable in, favoring the more experienced, battle-tested and grittier Flores.
- Boxing Picks: Mayelli Flores Moneyline (-150 on theScore)
Avious Griffin vs. Jackson Mariñez Best Bet
Jackson Mariñez’s four losses have all been against former champions, title challengers and the current No. 1 contender, making a win here a huge feather in Griffn’s cap. Many still believe that the 35-year-old was robbed of a decision against Rolando ‘Rolly’ Romero in their vacant title fight in 2020. Despite what the odds indicate, this is a massive test for Griffin just one year after his knockout loss to Julian Rodriguez.
Griffin’s 75-inch reach will be six inches longer than that of Mariñez, giving him the physical edge in a battle between two tall welterweights. But as an athletic power puncher, it remains to be seen how effective he can be with that advantage. Griffin has become a better boxer since his loss to Rodriguez, though he still prefers to land his power shots in the pocket and use his frame to fire off counters. That approach has worked against subpar competition, but he now faces an underrated boxer in Mariñez, whose slick movement has given fits to some of the best in the division.
Mariñez can land jabs and out-box Griffin from the outside. The question will be how he handles the power coming back in his direction from Griffin, who has either stopped or sent 19 of his 20 opponents to the canvas. Mariñez is hittable and has not handled adversity well in the past. At the same time, it has taken late flurries for Romero and Frank Martin to beat him, something Griffin has never had to do.
The improvements in Griffin’s counter-punching and perimeter boxing should be enough to overcome Mariñez’s superior point-fighting gane. But at these odds, we will take a small stab on the underdog.
- Boxing Picks: Jackson Mariñez Moneyline (+850 on theScore)
Lupita Medina vs. Brook Sibrian Prediction
Well before Amanda Serrano ignites the crowd in the main event, the Pechanga Resort Casino will show out for California native Lupita Medina. The undefeated rising star is primed to take the next step in her career against former amateur standout Brook Sibrian.
As another classic brawler, Sibrian will force Medina to get her hands dirty. ‘Mighty’ forces a dogfight every time she steps into the ring, forcing opponents to either beat her in a war of attrition or pitch a perfect game plan for all eight rounds. The shorter round total seemingly favors Sibrian, who never takes even a moment to settle into her fights.
Medina does not love when fights get gritty, but she is never afraid to dig deep when necessary. The 22-year-old is at her athletic best from the outside, when she can maximize her hand speed and footwork by constantly cutting angles and mixing up her attacks. Sibrian will be at a severe speed and footwork disadvantage against a fighter 11 years her junior.
The advantages Medina has could be a massive problem for Sibrian, who wants to sit and trade in the phone booth. Against quicker opponents, Sibrian tends to leave her punches lingering out a touch too long, opening up counter opportunities for an elite boxer to capitalize on. Medina will not miss on those windows. Sibrian is a tough fighter who has never been finished but finds herself physically out-matched against the strawweight division’s next big star.
- Boxing Picks: Lupita Medina Moneyline (-190 on theScore)
