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Errol Spence Jr vs. Terence Crawford Betting Splits: Early Money Backing Underdog

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in Boxing

Updated Jul 26, 2023 · 6:15 AM PDT

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford betting splits
Errol Spence Jr., center, celebrates his victory over Shawn Porter during the WBC & IBF World Welterweight Championship boxing match, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2019, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu)
  • Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford goes down Saturday in Las Vegas
  • Big money is already coming in on the underdog in this fight
  • Check out the Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford betting splits and analysis below

In what is being hailed as one of the most significant and highly anticipated fights of boxing’s modern era, Errol Spence Jr. and Terence Crawford are set to face off in a battle for the undisputed welterweight championship on Saturday, July 29th.

Even though the fight is still several days away, big money is already coming in on one of the fighters. Both combatants boast impressive records, with Spence holding a 28-0 record and 22 knockouts, while Crawford has a 39-0 record and 30 knockouts.

Let’s breakdown the early Spence vs Crawford betting splits and analyze why the early money is going to one side.

Errol Spence Jr. vs Terence Crawford Betting Splits

Fighter Odds at DraftKings % of Total Money % of Total Bets
Errol Spence Jr +120 64% 45%
Terence Crawford -150 45% 55%

Spence vs Crawford betting splits provided by DraftKings Sportsbook on July 25th, 2023. 

The current Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford odds have “Bud” as the -150 favorite, giving him a 60% implied win probability. Make sure to check out our Spence vs Crawford prediction from our boxing expert.

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Big Early Money on the Underdog

According to public betting splits data provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, Errol Spence Jr. is receiving the majority of early money for Saturday’s boxing fight against Terrence Crawford in Las Vegas. Spence Jr has received 64% of moneyline wagers as the +120 underdog.

What’s most telling about the Spence vs Crawford money splits is the percentage of total bets. Crawford has actually received more total bets than Spence Jr, but he’s only received 45% of the actual money. This tells us that the wagers on Crawford so far aren’t too substantial.

Casual bettors are likely waiting until Friday and Saturday to place their bets, so we can assume that some of this early action is from sharps (ie professional bettors). Sharp bettors tend to be on the right side of the action well over 50% of the time, although there are certainly instances where they get a fight prediction wrong.

Crawford initially opened as a lighter -135 favorite for this fight, but the line has steadily moved in the WBO champions’ favor, currently sitting at -150. If enough money from respected bettors comes in on Spence, you’d expect to see the odds shift in the underdog’s favor. So far, the line hasn’t budged.

Spence a Rare Underdog

This is the first time Spence has ever been a betting underdog in a boxing fight. In fact, the only time he didn’t open as a heavy favorite was six years ago when he stepped up in class to face Kell Brook. Spence opened as only a -130 favorite in that fight, but by the time the opening bell came, he was priced at -220.

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Crawford, of course, is also well accustomed to being the favorite. The only time he was potentially viewed as the underdog was back in 2013 when he faced Breidis Prescott as a late substitute. These are two men who are always favored, but now only one of them can be.

In a fight between two undefeated boxers, it’s easy to see why the underdog has appeal. Most boxing fights have a clear favorite and underdog, but the Spence vs Crawford odds suggest it’s any man’s championship. There will be plenty of underdog money on Spence from new/casual bettors simply because the potential payout is bigger.

How Spence Can Beat Crawford

While Crawford is the slight favorite in Saturday’s fight, Spence possesses several strengths that could lead him to victory as the underdog. The 38-year-old American welterweight is known for his disciplined and precise boxing style, showcasing a strategic and methodical approach in the ring.

Crawford is known to start his fights slowly, which could be a risky strategy against an aggressive and relentless fighter like Spence. If Spence starts strong and maintains calculated pressure throughout the fight, he could potentially put Crawford in a difficult position early on, making it harder for him to recover and gain momentum.

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Another potential weakness of Crawford is his temper.  In previous fights, Crawford has been hurt, stunned, or wobbled when he loses his composure. Spence could capitalize on this by maintaining his own composure and forcing Crawford to make mistakes, opening up opportunities for Spence to land powerful shots.

Furthermore, Spence’s ability to think on the fly and adapt to different scenarios in the ring has been cited as one of his greatest strengths. In a fight against a versatile and skilled opponent like Crawford, Spence’s adaptability and mental strength could be the key to victory.

Although both fighters are tremendously talented, it isn’t hard to see why the early money is on Spence. If he can exploit Crawford’s temper and win the mental game while using his methodical approach, “The Truth” could very well secure victory and claim the undisputed welterweight championship title.

 

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