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Paul vs Diaz Betting Splits – See Which Fighter is Receiving Majority of Money

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in Boxing

Updated Aug 3, 2023 · 3:17 PM PDT

Oct 29, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Jake Paul reacts following the match against Anderson Silva at Desert Diamond Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz goes down Saturday, August 5th in Dallas, Texas
  • DraftKings has released betting splits data showing which fighter is getting the money
  • See the full Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz betting splits, plus our complete breakdown below

In what’s being billed as “Ready 4 War”, the Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz fight is scheduled to take place on Saturday, August 5, 2023, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The event will feature a 10-round boxing match between Paul and Diaz at a weight of 185 pounds.

Paul (6-1) opened as a heavy favorite for this anticipated clash, and has since seen his odds shorten even further in the proceeding months. DraftKings Sportsbook has also released betting splits data showing that ‘The Problem Child’ is the consensus pick to defeat Diaz.

Let’s take a look at the Paul vs Diaz splits provided by DraftKings, and analyze what it could mean for Saturday’s results.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Betting Splits (Moneyline)

Fighter Odds % Bets % Handle
Jake Paul -390 71% 71%
Nate Diaz +280 29% 29%

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Paul is receiving 71% of total moneyline bets and 71% of the total moneyline handle for Saturday’s fight. Diaz, meanwhile, is receiving just 29% of bets and 29% of the actual money.

This betting splits data shouldn’t be all that surprising considering the Paul vs Diaz line movement. ‘The Problem Child’ opened as a -275 favorite, but is now listed as a much larger -390 favorite. This type of huge odds swing is typically caused by big-money bettors.



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Paul vs Diaz betting splits provided by DraftKings Sportsbook on August 3rd, 2023. Make sure to claim the DraftKings promo code to bet on Saturday’s fight.

Public Backing Jake Paul Against Nate Diaz

The public is betting on Jake Paul to rebound from the first professional loss of his boxing career Saturday against Nate Diaz. Paul lost to Tommy Fury via split decision back in February, and the 26-year-old boxer has been determined to get back in the win column since.

Although Diaz is a huge name in the combat sports world, Paul is favored for good reason. ‘The Problem Child’ has significantly more boxing experience than Diaz, who has a long MMA career but is making his professional boxing debut Saturday.

You also can’t ignore the clear size advantage at play here. The YouTuber-turned-boxer stands at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, while Diaz stands at 6-foot and a lighter weight from his MMA career. Paul’s size advantage has played a key role in recent fights, including in 2021, when he had four inches on Tyron Woodley and brutally knocked him out.

The betting splits data shows that bettors are confident Paul will continue his trend of success against MMA fighters. Paul has already defeated MMA combatants like Woodley, Ben Askren, and Anderson Silva in boxing matches, showcasing his ability to adapt to different fighting styles.

While the money is on Paul, it’s important to note that Diaz is a seasoned combat sports athlete with a strong background in striking, suggesting the fight could be closer than the odds imply. As of right now, Paul has an overwhelming 80% implied chance to defeat Diaz, based on the current DraftKings moneylines.

Does Diaz Offer Underdog Value?

Fading the public can be a profitable betting strategy in certain instances, but in this case, there doesn’t appear to be much sharp money on Diaz…yet. Interestingly enough, sharp money DID come in on Tommy Fury in his fight with Jake Paul,  causing Paul’s odds to shorten from -220 to -160 before the bout.

The main reason we might not see professional bettors slam the Diaz moneyline against Paul is because this is a boxing debut and there are too many unknowns that come with that. In the case of Fury, the big-money bettors were able to really analyze the two fighting styles and determine there was value on Fury as the underdog,

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So far, when it comes to Jake Paul vs MMA opponents, ‘The Problem Child’ has shown the ability to take care of his business and use his boxing experience advantage to his benefit. While Paul has never lost to an MMA opponent, Diaz does have incredible cardio and should last longer than any of Paul’s previous MMA opponents.

While betting against Jake Paul has only proven profitable on one occasion, it’s worth noting that former MMA fighter Henry Cejudo predicts Diaz will defeat Paul due to his experience training with professional fighters, emphasis on boxing, and resilience in taking hits. Our boxing expert also likes the underdog in his Paul vs Diaz prediction.

There are clearly reasons to bet on each fighter Saturday, but the early money is all over the ‘Problem Child’. If this line keeps shifting in Paul’s direction, it could be worth sprinkling some cash on Diaz given the potential for a close fight.


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