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Opening Odds for Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz After Fight Confirmed for August 5th

Dylan Bowker

by Dylan Bowker in Boxing

Updated Apr 12, 2023 · 5:49 PM PDT

Jake Paul and his corner react before he is declared the winner
Oct 29, 2022; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Jake Paul and his corner react before he is declared the winner against Anderson Silva at Desert Diamond Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
  • Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz goes down on August 5th inside the boxing ring
  • The YouTuber is hugely favored here over the former UFC stalwart
  • Check out the opening Paul vs Diaz odds, analysis, and predictions below

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz goes down on August 5th at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The former is the sizable favorite over the latter after opening Paul vs Diaz odds were released.

The showdown is stoking the fires of oddsmakers who have already crafted a line for this one. Let’s take a look at the opening Paul vs Diaz odds as we analyze the upcoming fight.

Jake Paul vs Nate Diaz Odds

Fighter Odds
Jake Paul -275
Nate Diaz +215

Jake Paul is a -275 favorite in the opening Paul vs Diaz odds, meaning “The Problem Child” has a 73% implied win probability.

This was not a contest I initially saw happening this year but here we are. This bout will be contested at 185 pounds and is scheduled for eight rounds.


Odds as of April 12th. Check out the best online boxing betting sites.


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Paul Favored in Opening Boxing Odds

Jake Paul is now 6-1 as a professional boxer and he looks to continue in the sweet science. This will also navigating an MMA debut with PFL to take place at a later juncture.

‘The Problem Child’ looks to rebound from his first professional boxing loss when he fell short to Tommy Fury by way of a split decision in February. Paul now returns to his previous efforts fighting MMA fighters. The brash former Disney star has wins recorded over Anderson Silva, Tyron Woodley, and Ben Askren in this same vein.

The combat sports disruptor will take on an individual who is coming off of a fifteen-plus-year tenure with the Ultimate Fighting Championship.

Diaz finally strikes out on his own after well over a decade in his previous company. While there, he was one of the organization’s all-time biggest pay-per-view draws.

Diaz an underdog vs Paul

Nate Diaz is a former WEC and UFC lightweight title challenger and also has been a top ten-ranked welterweight in the UFC. The Ultimate Fighter season five champion is one of the all-time most entertaining combat sports personalities both in and out of competition.

He last competed inside the confines of the octagon when Diaz bested Tony Ferguson via guillotine choke at UFC 279 last September.  Diaz is a debutant in the sweet science and looks to make a big splash in his first pro boxing bout that also sees him as a promoter for the first time. Real Fight Inc is Diaz’s property and co-promotes this event with Paul’s company, Most Valuable Promotions.

YouTube video

Jake Paul has been calling out the pride of Stockton on and off for years now. Finally, his call has been answered and the two will collide live on DAZN pay-per-view.

While Diaz has far more cumulative fighting experience over a prolific career in combat sports, the variables in this one are more familiar to the combat sports disruptor.

Expected Paul vs Diaz Odds Movement

In terms of how the odds will move closer to the fight, I don’t see them moving in a way that’s favorable toward Nathan Diaz.

The localized boxing experience in competition and the notable size advantage Paul has over Diaz are both notable variables in his favor. Paul has often fought at Cruiserweight and hovers closer to that 200-pound mark while Diaz has historically competed more at 155 pounds and 170 pounds.

YouTube video

Paul is someone I can see becoming an even bigger betting favorite as the fight gets closer. A lot of people have this general notion that Paul takes on opponents less experienced and smaller than him with this fight very much fitting that sort of framework.

I think Paul can even become a slightly bigger favorite.  But I see him remaining near that three-to-one or even four-to-one favorite range once we’re into fight week.


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