Champions League Betting – Atletico Brings Dominant D to PSV

Atletico Madrid (-117) at PSV (+400), Draw (+250)

The 2013-14 Champions League runners-up, Atletico Madrid, will take the next step on their path back to the final when they meet Dutch side PSV in the Round of 16. Game one of the two-match series goes tomorrow (Wednesday, Feb. 24) at PSV Station (2:45 PM Eastern).

Atletico are favored to advance, sitting at -450 for the series as a whole (versus +320 for PSV). With the draw on the table in game one, PSV have even longer odds (+400), despite playing at home.

Diego Simeone’s Atletico squad advanced to the knockout stage by winning Group C with 13 points (4-1-1). The defensive-minded team found some scoring touch in the round robin, scoring 11 goals in six matches. Of course, their defense was its usual strong self. Their three goals against were tied for the fewest in the Group Stage.

They’ve been even stingier in La Liga, conceding just 11 goals in 25 matches. (No other team has surrendered fewer than 20.)

PSV finished second in Group B to Wolfsburg with ten points, scoring eight goals and allowing seven. Those numbers aren’t overly impressive, but they were able to eliminate Manchester United, a squad with much deeper and high-priced squad, at least on paper.

PSV lead the Dutch League by one point over Ajax; they hold that slim lead despite losing just once in 24 games. Unlike Atletico, PSV look to attack at all times, a recipe that’s led to an incredible 2.5 GPG average in the Eredivisie. 

They won’t be at full strength tomorrow, though. Defender and captain Luuk de Jong will be serving a one-game suspension incurred in the Group Stage. But manager Phillip Cocu could have Andres Guardado back; the Mexican winger has been sidelined since January 30 due to a hamstring injury.

And Cocu will need all the resources he can get his hands on tomorrow, especially on offense, if his Peasants are going to pull the upset. Not only are PSV facing arguably the best defensive team in club soccer, but they don’t have a great track record against Spanish opposition, posting a 4-10-10 record.  (Atletico are 5-1-4 against Dutch sides.)

Atletico are the deserving favorite. Take them to advance in the series, but for now, the draw has good value for game one at PSV Station.

Pick: Draw (+250). 

(Photo credit: Ver en vivo En Directo (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)